Final Flashcards
1
Q
Why do some say the assertiveness of the 2018 NPR is not right?
A
It is too aggressive and expensive
2
Q
Why do some scholars say the assertiveness of the 2018 NPR is the right move?
A
The US has neglected its nukes for too long, the US must adapt to great power competition, the US must adapt to technological evolution, costs are manageable
3
Q
Why do some scholars say the US needs tactical nukes against Russia and China?
A
Strategic nukes are too destructive to be used and tactical nukes will compensate for the erosion of the US conventional military edge
4
Q
What were Biden’s campaign promises on nukes?
A
The US would only use nukes to deter enemies or retaliate, and we would work with other great powers on arms control
5
Q
What has Biden done on nukes since in power?
A
Remained vague under the conditions nukes would be used, and endorsed the US nuclear modernization program
6
Q
How many domestic sites are there of nukes?
A
24, in 11 states
7
Q
How many warheads does the US have?
A
5,244
8
Q
How many nuclear warheads does the US have deployed?
A
1,770
9
Q
How many nukes does the US have in storage?
A
1,938
10
Q
How many nukes does the US have retired?
A
1,536
11
Q
What assets does the US nuclear program have?
A
Best delivery vehicles, best intelligence capabilities, global network of bases
12
Q
When was the emergence of the nuclear triad?
A
1960
13
Q
When did debates start about the survival of the triad?
A
End of the Cold War
14
Q
What are the arguments against the nuclear triad?
A
It is pointless and has destabilizing effects
15
Q
Why do some say the triad is pointless?
A
Terrorists are the main threat to US and cannot be deterred, rogue states are the other main threats, but have small arsenal’s, because of technological breakthroughs that facilitate detection some elements of the triad are likely to lose their stealth
16
Q
What did the US strategic command of 1992 say?
A
Retain the triad to prepare for new or resurgence enemies
17
Q
Why do some scholars argue the triad should be retained?
A
Dismantling the triad would be risky, each branch of the triad offers specific strategic advantages, the nuclear triad makes US nuclear attacks more unpredictable for the enemy, the triad advances the cause of nuclear disarmament
18
Q
Why do some scholars say dismantling the nuclear triad would be risky?
A
It would be a sign of weakness for enemies and allies, reduces US ability to counter a system, failure or enemy tech breakthroughs
19
Q
How does the nuclear triad advance the cause of nuclear disarmament?
A
US leaders will be more willing to reduce the size of America’s arsenal because the triad makes them feel more secure
20
Q
When did US leaders first start considering BMDs?
A
The 1940s
21
Q
What was the first serious attempt at ballistic missile defense?
A
Strategic Defense initiative of 1983
22
Q
When did the US withdraw from the anti-ballistic missile treaty?
A
2001
23
Q
How much has the US spent on BMD’s since 1983?
A
Over $2 billion
24
Q
How many ground-based midcourse defense interceptors are there?
A
44 with 40 in Alaska, and four in California
25
What is the function of ground-based midcourse defense interceptors?
Well, there's not enough interceptors to stop a full scale Russian, or Chinese ICBM attack, small nuclear weapons states ICBM can be stopped, like North Korea, and in the future, Iran
26
What is terminal high altitude area defense?
Mobile BMD systems designed to intercepts short and medium range missiles during their final descent
27
Where are the main THAAD systems?
Overseas US bases like Guam and some US allies like South Korea, Israel and the UAE
28
What are aegis BMD's?
Systems initially on Americas aegis ships designed to intercept short and medium range ballistic missiles
29
What are patriot advanced capability 3 BMDs?
Mobile BMDs deployed in various parts of the world to defend small areas like military bases or an airfield
30
Why does the US invest in BMD systems?
To deter attacks, minimize damage in case of general nuclear war, entrench US influence in the allied states that deployed those BMD's, encircle Russia, and China
31
Why do BMD systems deter attacks?
An enemy would not like to waste assets that are likely to be intercepted
32
How is US influence entrenched in allied states that deploy BMD's?
The systems require inter-operability and signal solidarity with the United States
33
What are other uses for BMD systems?
Intelligence collection on enemy sites through radars and attack on enemy sides
34
Why do some scholars oppose BMD systems?
Questionable effectiveness, very expensive, and a risk of escalation
35
When did the industrial military complex emerge?
The early Cold War first coined in Eisenhower's's farewell speech in 1960
36
What are the members of the industrial military complex?
The US military, military corporations, Congress, and think tanks
37
What members of the trump administration were also employed in defense contractors?
SecDef James Mattis was a board member of General dynamics, White House Chief of Staff John Kelly was an advisor to DynCorp, secretary of army Mark Esper was the former Raytheon, Vice President
38
What percent of the top 10 foreign policy and defense think tanks worldwide received money from military corporations?
80%
39
What percent of the top 10 foreign-policy in defense think tanks worldwide receive money from governments?
90%
40
Why do governments incorporations fund think tank research?
For objective analysis, but also access to informal networks were policies are formed, leveraging the intellectual or political prestige of think tanks, to push favorable narratives or policy ideas, obstructing the outlets that could support alternative voices, and to prevent critical information from reaching the mass public
41
What are the consequences of government incorporation funding on think tanks?
Rare direct censorship, common self censorship, perspective filtering
42
What are the consequences of governments and corporations funding think tanks on US nuclear policy?
No change in the US nuclear policy, and constant push for expansion and modernization
43
When did China first start developing the nuclear program?
Spring of 1952
44
Why did China start their nuclear program?
Because of US nuclear threats during the Korean War
45
Why was there an acceleration in China's nuclear program in 1954?
Discovery of uranium reserves
46
Why was there a debate about the desirability of nukes in China in 1961?
The Sino-Soviet split ending Soviet nuclear assistant and economic disaster of the great leap forward
47
When was China's first nuclear test?
October 1964
48
What did China's first nuclear doctrine say?
They would adopt a minimum deterrence strategy, pledge no first use, and oppose the US Soviet arms race
49
In what ways has China neglected its nuclear program?
It had no details, operational doctrine, a small unsophisticated and vulnerable arsenal. Only a few dozen missiles, a few bombers in a single nuclear submarine.
50
What were Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaping's beliefs about China's nukes?
They did not believe in value of nukes for comment, and the girls were turns in preventing nuclear blackmail
51
How did the communist parties domination over the military in China affect the nuclear policy?
Secrecy and intellectual conformism hurt nuclear debates. There was an unwillingness to defy the leaders views and the cultural revolution disrupted China's military institutions.
52
What was China's strategic culture like that led to nuclear neglect?
Emphasis on moral dimensions in an emphasis on an indirect approach to war
53
What was China's first official nuclear strategy?
2006 white paper
54
What does the 2006 white paper say?
The Chinese nuclear doctrine was the same as in the past
55
Why was it remarkable the Chinese nuclear doctrine stayed the same as in the past in the 2006 white paper?
Chinese fast growing resources, trying to see huge commercial military reforms during these years, and the relative opening of China as the communist regime became less oppressive
56
What is the function of the 2015 white paper?
It showed that China had growing nuclear ambitions and then to 2016 reforms, including a higher status for nuclear weapons in Chinese military
57
What expanding nuclear assets does China have?
More nukes, more missiles, more road mobile missiles, or SLBMs, and more anti-satellite weapons to destroy US satellitesq
58
What are the new debates among Chinese leaders?
Should China abandon first no use and should China raise its alert status
59
What is China's sprint to parity?
The growth of nuclear weapons was likely 1500 by 2035
60
In what ways has China been trying to deceive the world about its nuclear weapons?
Hiding its nukes in new tunnels, covertly testing tactical nukes, and the lack of transparency and accountability
61
Why do some scholars say that you guys should not feel overly alarmed by China's nuclear program?
Chinese nuclear arsenal remain small, China's readiness level is still love, Chinese nuclear secrecy is understandable, the reluctance on arms control is normal, China lacks fissile material to build more nukes, China's lesson from history is to focus on economic growth, China is building up because it worries about the US, and US intelligence agencies have gotten China wrong many times before
62
Why do some scholars say Chinese nuclear secrecy is understandable?
It is surrounded by US military assets and allies, the US has huge offensive capabilities, and China's few nukes and delivery vehicles
63
What are some flashpoints for a future US China war?
The East China Sea, the South China Sea, or most likely, Taiwan
64
What are some reasons why China might escalate a conflict to the nuclear level?
The vulnerability of China's nuclear arsenal, the inherent dynamics of any crisis can make escalation inevitable, the US could inadvertently strike nuclear assets
65
How do the inherent dynamics of any crisis make escalation inevitable?
Risk of misperceptions, risk of bad intelligence, and a huge pressure on leaders to show brinkmanship
66
What are some reasons why China would not escalate a conflict the nuclear level?
China will not fear US is about to destroy its nukes and the US has everything under control
67
Why does China not fear the US is about to destroy its nukes?
It's nuclear assets are well hidden, its nuclear assets are dispersed, and its nuclear assets are strongly hardened
68
Why do we have limited intelligence on North Korea's nuclear program?
It's a secretive and isolated dictatorship
69
When did North Korea first construct a nuclear reactor?
The early 1960s
70
When was North Korea's first nuclear test?
2006
71
What is the security rationale North Korea has for its nukes?
Since 1950, US troops have been in South Korea, and have made nuclear threats, as well as an early post Cold War insecurity and concerns about states that abandon nukes or nuclear programs that were attacked
72
How did identity play a role in the decision of the North Korean nuclear program?
The North Koreans want to overcome memories of Japanese colonialism in a frustrated with their dependency on China and Russia, or other great powers, this concept means they take extreme measures to retain control and show hostility
73
How did North Korea's nukes lead to domestic political gains?
The strengthen the masses support for the countries leaders, and divert attention away from domestic failures
74
What was the 1993 to 1994 crisis between the US and North Korea?
An incident where both countries made threats in the US considered preventative strikes, and North Korea's facilities. It was ended by Jimmy Carter's visit to Pyongyang and the US North Korea agreed framework.
75
What did the six party talks from 2003 to 2009 say?
North Korea would disarm in exchange for economic and security cooperation. However, they will soon test their first nuclear weapon.
76
What was Obama's strategy towards North Korea's nuclear program?
Strategic patience, or having more sanctions to incline North Korea to work towards denuclearization
77
Why did the rise of Kim Jong-un need to an expansion of North Korea's nuclear ambitions?
Kim Jong-un was domestically weak, North Korea faced tensions with China, and there was a fear of a US coup
78
What caused the 2017 US North Korean nuclear crisis?
In August, US Intel showed that North Korea's ICBMs could reach the US homeland, so Trump issued several threats and the North Koreans retaliated
79
What ended the 2017 US North Korean nuclear crisis?
North Korea is needed for economic assistance, election of a new South Korean president open to talks, and trumps interest in a big summit
80
What happened during Trump and Kim's first meeting in Singapore, June 2018?
Trump declared there was no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea, but no real progress was made towards denuclearization
81
How is North Korea still a growing threat?
The continued build up of their nukes, road, mobile launchers, solid, fuel missiles (harder to detect and faster launches), considers, tactical, nukes, and recently tested a new ICBM
82
What is the rate of success during the US missile defense tests?
56%
83
Why might China oppose the US intervention in North Korea?
Prevent the US from deploying at China's border
84
Why might China try to help the US neutralize North Korea as long as the US promises not to stay in the country?
China might be concerned about how North Korea's instability could destabilize their country, and Beijing is tired of North Korea's reckless nuclear policies
85
What is extended deterrence?
The protection of allies, possibly with nuclear strikes
86
How many US nukes were in east Asia in the late 1960s?
More than 3000
87
What events have led to growing concerns of Americas allies in east Asia?
The US drawl of its tactical nukes, North Korea's nuclear development, China's nuclear buildup, trumps rejection of alliances, China's military and economy, catching up with the US, and Russia's attack on Ukraine
88
What percent of South Koreans in 2017 wanted a nuclear weapon?
60%
89
What has Japan's debate about developing a nuclear weapon looked like?
They have a strong aversion to nuclear weapons among the people, but they worry about North Korea and China
90
What was the relationship like between the US and Iran in the Shah era?
Good, Iran participated in Atoms for Peace and they had major civilian plans
91
What led to growing Iran nuclear ambitions?
The Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), where Iraq attacked Iran and used chemical weapons, with only support from the west
92
When did the Iran nuclear controversy start?
Post-CW, with CIA predictions that Iran would have the bomb by 2000, and being in Bush's axis of evil speech
93
Why did the US not strike Iran in the early 2000s?
Entanglements in Iraq
94
What was Stuxnet?
A US Israel computer virus discovered in 2010 to derail Iran centrifuges
95
When was the JSPOA signed?
July 2015
96
Who signed the JCPOA?
Iran, US, EU, China, Russia, France, Britain, Germany
97
What were the main clauses of the JCPOA?
Lifting of international sanctions on Iran in exchange for sever restrictions on Iran's program
98
Why did some oppose the JCPOA?
It legitimized Iran's nuclear program, its technical repercussions were not severe enough, and would not last long enough, and the lifting of sanctions would help Iran fund terrorism
99
Why did some support the JCPOA?
Iran's nuclear ambitions were more restrained, another deal could be negotiated later for the long term, and Iran would become a more moderate actor
100
Why do some say Iran does want nuclear weapons?
Deterrent and prestige
101
Why do some say that Iran does not want nuclear weapons?
Islam, nukes would hurt its interests, and in 2010, no evidence of Iran's decision to develop nukes
102
Why is Iran hedging close to nuclear-weapons capability?
To deter an attack, to extract concessions, and to consolidate the regime's popularity at home
103
What do alarmists say about how worried we should be if Iran develops nukes?
Iran would be emboldened and Iran's leaders are irrational. Additionally, Israel and other Arab states will react strongly, which could lead to war, an arms race, or seeking protectors other than the US
104
What do middle ground scholars say about how worried we should be if Iran develops nukes?
Iran's nuclear policy has always been rational and the heated rhetoric about nukes is mostly about domestic politics
105
What do optimists say about how worried we should be if Iran develops nukes?
Stability will improve because Iran will deter the US and Israel
106
Why did Trump withdraw from the JCPOA?
Iran will build nukes anyways, Iran has ballistic missiles, and Iran's support for terrorism
107
What was the Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign?
To impose massive sanctions on Iran to force a renegotiation of the JCPOA
108
What were the problems with trumps maximum pressure campaign against Iran?
Iran refuse to yield, the US decision to revoke an official agreement was controversial, renewed US Iran tensions, and China and Iran strategic partnership
109
In what ways did Iran refuse to yield to trumps maximum pressure campaign?
They built a resistance economy to reduce the impact of sanctions, the regime use nuclear nationalism to preserve unity, they responded aggressively abroad, and strengthened their relationship with America's enemies
110
What has Biden done in terms of the JCPOA?
He's issued a special envoy to begin negotiations but Iran has had a tepid response and asks for a guarantee that no future president could withdraw from the agreement as well as new concessions
111
How has Iran violated the JCPOA since the withdrawl of the United States?
Iran has increased its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, has launched more advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges, has restricted i.e. inspectors access, and more
112
Why is Iran unlikely to yield to economic or diplomatic pressures from the US?
They do not trust US leaders, China and Russia can help Iran absorb US and western sanctions, Iran and Saudi opening further reduces US leverages
113
Why do some scholars say the US should strike Iran?
The US is losing time to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons, most of Iran's facilities are vulnerable, Iran's response will be limited, and Iran will not recover easily
114
Why do some scholars argue the US should not strike Iran?
The threat is overblown, facilities are hard to destroy, Iran could rebuild its nuclear assets fast, risk of international backlash for US, and war could break out and expand fast
115
When was the Soviet nuclear program first created?
Early 1943
116
When was the first Soviet nuclear test?
August 1949
117
What was the Soviet nuclear strategy during the Cold War?
Military control, seeking nuclear victory, preemptive nuclear escalation in case of invasion
118
How many US nukes were deployed in Western Europe in the early 70s?
7000
119
When did the Soviet union start seeking arms control with the US?
1972
120
How did Gorbachev change Soviet policy on nukes?
He realized enduring vulnerability to US strikes, the financial hardships the Soviet union was facing so they'd be unable to keep up with the US, the Chernobyl disasters, and the INF treaty been in ground-based missiles of intermediate range
121
What did the start treaty of 1991 do?
Made the max number of war heads on delivery vehicles 6000
122
What contributed to Russia's frustrations with US?
National decline, general disagreements, NATO's decision to expand eastward, and US efforts to achieve nuclear primacy
123
Why was there a growing doctrinal reliance on nukes in Russia?
NATO's expansion, cheap cost of nukes, low quality of Russia's conventional sources, and China is growing conventional military capabilities
124
What is escalate to de-escalate?
Russia would use nukes in case of a large scale aggression utilizing conventional weapons in situations deemed critical to the national security of the Russian federation
125
What was the Obama Medvedev reset?
A re-strengthening of the relationship, including the new start treaty to reduce strategic warheads and strategic delivery vehicles, NATO's declining concerns about Russia, but a reemerging rivalry
126
How has Russia had a nuclear build up?
They have a nuclear modernization program expected to cost $70 billion, growing opacity and more decisions behind closed doors, and bellicose rhetoric
127
When did the Russia Ukraine crisis start?
February 2014, when Russia annex Crimea
128
What were NATO's concerns after the 2014 Ukraine crisis?
The number of Russian troops and tactical nukes, and a nightmare scenario where Russia would invade a NATO territory
129
Why did some experts advocate for a restrained approach on Russia?
The Russian threat is overblown, as Russia has financial constraints, demographics decline, and Russia's military is weak; but the risk of war is real, so the US should not provoke the Russians, should not protect its eastern NATO allies, or the US should leave NATO
130
How did the US and its allies strengthen NATO after the 2014 Ukraine crisis?
They assumed being tough was the best way to deter Russia, so they station more troops near Russian borders, emphasize NATO's red lines more clearly, deployed more tactical nukes, lowered the nuclear threshold, and strengthened NATO's Eastern European states
131
What are the main assets of the Russian empire?
Central geographic position in Eurasia, centralized and repressive regime, strong industrial base, and military superiority
132
In what ways has Russia declined since the Soviet era?
Demise of a seventy year old ideology, loss of 1/6 of its territory, population decline from 293 million to 146 million, GDP falling by 43%, number of troops declining from 3.5million to 1.2 million
133
What were Russia's immediate disagreements with the US?
They resent in German reunification, shock therapy failed, they resented US strides in central Asia, US backed expansion of the EU, and NATO expansion in central and eastern Europe
134
What was the US perspective on Russia's immediate disagreements with them?
They tried to help Russia, they were worried about Russia's imperial tendencies, and they wanted to protect central and eastern European states
135
When has Vladimir Putin been president of Russia?
From 2000-2008, and 2012 on
136
What are the debates about Putin's leader ship?
Is he a visionary or incompetent, is he a patriot or a thug, is he strong or insecure
137
What are Russia's consistent strategic ends?
Repression and buying loyalty at home, protecting the near abroad, reasserting their prestige abroad, finding new markets beyond the west, and pushing back against US encirclement
138
What began the Russia Ukraine crisis?
In 2013, the Ukrainian president rejected an economic pact with the EU, which led to massive demonstration. In February 2014, he fled Ukraine, which led to Russia taking Crimea
139
What was Russia's response to the sanctions against it after seizing Crimea?
A military buildup on its western flank, increased information wars, rapprochement with China, partial reorientation towards Eurasia
140
How did Putin re-orient towards other parts of Eurasia after the 2014 Ukraine crisis?
Developed Russia's Arctic and eastern peripheries, finding markets in Asia to buffer western sanctions, working with other states who are opposed to US hegemony, accelerate the Sino Russian rapprochement
141
When was Russia's invasion into Ukraine announced?
February 24, 2022
142
What do scholars who say the war in Ukraine is Russia's fault say about what caused it?
Putin's psychology, domestic political calculations, and complex of inferiority led to the invasion
143
What do scholars who say the war in Ukraine is NATO's fault say about what caused it?
NATO's expansion since the 90s, NATO's rapprochement with Ukraine, and Ukraine strategic importance to Russia
144
How many civilians have died in the Ukraine war?
8500
145
How many refugees have fled Ukraine?
8 million
146
How many troops has Ukraine lost?
120,000
147
How many troops has Russia lost?
200,000
148
What have been Russia's strategic setbacks in the war in Ukraine?
Ukraine is more western oriented than ever, NATO expansion in Russia's vicinity, Europe has become more hostile, China's growing superiority over Russia, and Russia's declining image
149
What was NATO's response to Russia invading Ukraine?
US sanctions, assistance to Ukraine to withstand the assault, denouncing Russia's violation of the international order, but maintaining some restraint
150
What percent of Americans support sending US troops to Ukraine?
40%
151
How is the Ukraine war a war to maintain the US lead liberal order?
The defense of Ukraine is a defense of the liberal hegemony against Russia but also China
152
What strategic virtues does the war in Ukraine have for the United States?
It hurts Russia's power potential without sacrificing US or NATO lives, it is revived the NATO alliance, and opposing Russia can help US influence in other regions
153
What challenges does the US face during the Ukraine war?
The war hurts US prosperity, congressional support might not last forever, and US needs to focus on China
154
What are some scholars say the war in Ukraine is a diversion from the US Indo pacific strategy?
Ukraine isn't that important, China is a much bigger threat, the US doesn't have the power to cover both Europe and Asia, the longer we focus on Ukraine the more tempted China will be to invade Taiwan, and Europe is wealthy enough to support Ukraine on its own
155
Why do some scholars say the US must support Ukraine in NATO as part of their Indo pacific strategy?
The US must protect liberal values everywhere, the US credibility as an ally is at stake, Russia's defeat in Ukraine will discourage China from invading Taiwan, US support to Europe against Russia can help the US ask the Europeans to help the US against China
156
What is the US concerned about in terms of Russia?
Their willingness to escalate to de-escalate, their lowered threshold for first use, and their enduring support of rogue states
157
What are the signs of US Russia degradation under Trump?
New disputes over US BMDs, the demise of the INF treaty, and termination of the open skies treaty
158
Why did some scholars argue Russia had legitimate concerns about the US before the Ukraine war?
They feared a decapitating US strike, they feared that US BMDs would cancel Russia's nuclear deterrent, the decision of the US to lower its nuclear threshold, and new NATO members and partnerships in Russia's sphere of influence
159
Why did some scholars argue before the Ukraine war that Russia's nuclear policy seemed reasonable?
The 2011 modernization program was simply to protect Russia's second strike capability and replace their aging assets, nuclear threats are not a sign of a rationality and recklessness, most of Russia's nuclear exercises are defensive, Russia has fewer nukes than during the Cold War, and Putin made efforts to reassure
160
Why did some scholars argue before the Ukraine war that Russia's nuclear policies fulfill non-security objectives?
That they have status aspirations and nukes for the only area of parity they had with the US, and they wanted domestic political gains to divert the publics attention from economic problems
161
What is the Russia's main nuclear measures thus far into the Ukraine war?
Dangerous rhetoric, nuclear forces on high alert, use dual capable ballistic missiles, tested its new ICBM, ordered a snap nuclear war game, and occupied to nuclear power plants in Ukraine
162
Why do optimists say nuclear war won't happen in Ukraine?
Biden understands the risks, Putin is rational, and Russia did nothing after NATO crossed it's first red lines
163
Why do some say the US is already on a path to escalation in Ukraine?
They are sending more military assistance, crippling economic sanctions now designed to permanently weaken Russia, and Biden is under pressure to be tough from many sources
164
What are the pathways for NATO escalation in Ukraine?
Russian incursions into Russian speaking NATO states or Russian strike on armed convoys in NATO states heading to Ukraine
165
What are Russia's official escalation threshold?
Ballistic missiles targeting Russia or its allies, use of nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons against Russia, attacks against Russian nuclear command and control, and conventional attacks that threaten the very existence of the state
166
Why might Russia's threshold be lower for tactical nukes?
Russia has thousands of tactical nukes, and the smaller guilds gives the illusion of control however, the use of tactical nuke could trigger a general nuclear war
167
Why do some say Russia is already on a path to escalation?
Energy cut offs to punish the EU, more bombs dropped on civilian target, formal annexation of for Ukrainian provinces, and partial mobilization of Russia's population
168
What does scholars believe is the main scenario that leads to nuclear use in Ukraine?
The fear of Putin's fall or regime change
169
What are the potential US responses if Russia uses tactical nukes?
Use tactical nukes to destroy Russian targets in Ukraine but that would be politically infeasible and compromise the nuclear taboo; conventional strikes on Ukraine or Russia but it would be a escalatory; continued assistance to Ukrainians without escalation but if Ukraine war wins more battles Putin will be cornered and use nukes and if the US does not respond they will use nukes; press both parties to negotiate but there's no room for compromise and putting too much pressure on Ukraine is politically difficult to
170
What are some say Putin may be irrational?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine does not make sense, Putin has unchecked paranoia, Putin's fundamentalist mindset, no one can restrain Putin, so that all could lead to potential nuclear escalation
171
When did India's nuclear program start?
1948 with the Atomic Energy Commission, for electricity production
172
How did the US support India's nuclear program?
India was a recipient of Atoms for Peace so the US helped build reactors, train scientist and shared nuclear knowledge
173
Why did India have an atomic ambivalence opposition to nuclear weapons?
Insufficient economic resources and self perception as morally superior
174
Why did India drift towards nuclear weapon ambitions?
To demonstrate their independence as a post colonial state, frustration with the US Soviet build up, resistance to US pressures to have India's send the nonproliferation treaty, humiliation in the war against China, then Chinese nuclear test, the second Indo Pakistan war following a Pakistani attack, in the third Indo Pakistan war following a Pakistani attack
175
How did the US make India feel more insecure?
The 1954 US Pakistan partnership, US neutrality during the 1965 Indo Pakistan war, your support to Pakistan during the third Indo Pakistan war of 1971, the US China opening
176
When was the second India Pakistan war?
1965
177
When was the third Indo Pakistan war?
1971
178
When was India's Pokhran I test?
May 1974
179
How was India's first nuclear test presented to the world?
It was presented as a peaceful nuclear explosion, it was the first nuclear test by a Third World country but not a nuclear weapon although it's still had implications for Pakistan and the rest of the world
180
Why was there a decline in India's nuclear program after 1975?
Domestic instability, economic issues, Soviet protection, international sanctions
181
What was the origin of Pakistan's nuclear program?
In 1955, the Pakistan atomic energy commission goals of electricity and medicine
182
How did the US support Pakistan's nuclear program?
In 1955, Pakistan was the recipient of Atoms for Peace, meaning the US helped build reactors, train Pakistani scientist, and share scientific knowledge
183
Why did Pakistan drift towards nuclear weapon ambitions?
India's Geo political superiority, constant disappointment with the US partnership, the third India Pakistan war, which led to east Pakistan's independence (Bangladesh), to assert national independence as a postcolonial state, and a complex of superiority with India
184
Who is AQ Khan?
A Pakistani scientist who worked for a western European nuclear farm. In 1976, he returned to Pakistan to help the nuclear program by stealing European nuclear tech and using European networks to procure items on the black market.
185
What led the US to stop pressures on the Pakistan nuclear program?
The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan made it to the US needed to work with the neighbor Pakistan, so they turned a blind eye
186
Why was India increasingly concerned about Pakistan's nuclear program?
Their accelerated progress towards the bomb, China's increase assistance to Pakistan, Pakistan support to anti-Indian terrorist movement, Pakistan's nuclear threats, and US exports of F-16 fighter aircraft
187
When did India and Pakistan become de facto nuclear weapons states?
By 1990
188
When was there a renewed US concerned about south Asia's nuclearization?
The end of the Cold War meant the US did not need Pakistan anymore, so they were growing US pressures on Pakistan and India to abandon their nuclear ambitions
189
What was India's BJP party under PM Vajpayee?
Hindu nationalist party that tested India's first nuclear weapons in May 1998, justified by India's fear of China
190
What did the US do to try to convince Pakistan not to test nukes following India's nuclear tests?
Threaten sanctions, promised skyrocketing aid, and promised to invite Pakistani leaders to DC, but in late May 1998, there were six Pakistani nuclear tests
191
When was the Kargil war or the fourth Indo Pakistani war?
1999
192
How did the fourth into Pakistani war start?
Pakistan cross the border an occupied mountains of Kargil in Kashmir, India would dislodge Pakistani soldiers without entering Pakistan territory
193
What was the international concern during the fourth Indo Pakistani war?
They were concerned about nuclear escalation, it would let her come out the only reason why Pakistan did not use nukes was because meaning war heads with F 16 aircraft was impossible
194
What was the reaction after the fourth Indo Pakistani war?
Theory sanctions against both India and Pakistan but they were gradually lifted due to concerns about Pakistan's instability in India's growing appeal, including their nuclear restraint, huge economic opportunities, and ability to be a partner against China
195
What did India's first nuclear doctrine in August 1999 say?
They would adopt a policy of credible minimum deterrence, with no first use and a low number of nukes, but opacity
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What does Pakistan's first nuclear doctrine in 1999 say?
They would have credible minimum deterrence, with no first use only against non-nuclear weapons states, opacity
197
How does Pakistan pursued nuclear escalation dominance?
Building more nukes, development of tactical nuclear weapons, a new short range and rode mobile missile designed for war against India, and an asymmetric escalation doctrine
198
How has India drifting towards preemptive nuclear counterforce?
Efforts to optimize accuracy and readiness with the goal to destroy all of Pakistan's nuclear site if there's any sign Pakistan is about to use nukes
199
How many nukes does Pakistan currently have?
165
200
How many nuclear weapons does India currently have?
160
201
When was the first US nuclear power plant?
1954
202
Why was there a nuclear boom in the 1970s?
The oil shock in 1973 revealed US dependency on Middle East oil
203
How many nuclear reactors did the world have in 1980?
223 reactors in 22 states
204
What happened during the Three Mile Island accident (March 1979)?
There was a partial meltdown and a small radioactive release
205
What happened during the Chernobyl accident (April 1986)?
220,000 people relocated, $68B to decontaminate, 4,000 dead in the long term
206
What did the tsunami do to the Fukushima plant?
Disabled backup diesel generators, crippled cooling systems, and radioactive release about 10% of Chernobyl
207
What was the impact of the Fukushima reactor?
150,000 evacuated, $180B in costs, radiation exposure
208
Who was responsible for Fukushima?
Tepco, the company operating Fukushima had a history of negligence, and the government
209
What was the global impact of Fukushima?
Global decline of nuclear energy, cases of quasi nuclear exit, and US relative decline in energy production
210
Why did the US start to decline in nuclear energy production?
Shale gas revolution, risk of natural disasters, rising interest in other renewables
211
How many new reactors have there been since Fukushima?
63
212
Why is nuclear energy still appealing to some?
Cheap and to fight against global warming
213
Why has there been a renewed push for nuclear energy in the US?
A push by the Biden administration, push by some states, and favorability among people
214
How many nuclear reactors does the US currently have?
93 reactors at 55 plant in 28 states
215
Why do skeptic of nuclear energy say enough energy can't be delivered in time?
Timelines of production are too long, the costs are too high, nuclear power will be dwarfed by renewables, and global warming will hamper energy production
216
What do supporters of nuclear energy say enough energy can be delivered in time?
Timelines are not that long, new tech will help reduce costs, and renewable energies will not suffice
217
Why do skeptics say nuclear energy is not safe for the environment?
Many nuclear accidents, risk of accidents persists in rich countries with aging reactors, developing countries will be exposed to severe risks, nuclear waste, and reactors can be targeted during wars
218
Why do supporters say nuclear energy is safe for the environment?
Waste is manageable, some states have exploited nuclear energy for decades without issue, new nuclear technologies are safer, renewable energies have environmental costs, exploiting other energy sources comes with risks, and nuclear power has saved lives from air pollution
219
What do supporters say about the strategic benefits of nuclear energy exports?
US energy exports helped them during the Cold War, but today, Russia and China are the top exporters
220
What do skeptics say about strategic benefits of nuclear energy exports?
More US exports will not hurt Russia and China's nuclear exports, but will hurt nonproliferation
221
What is cyber?
An operational domaines framed by the use of electronics and the electromagnetic spectrum to create, store, modify, exchange, and exploit information via interconnected and internetted information systems and their associated infrastructure
222
What are the inherent problems with cyber?
Secrecy, technical complexity, and a rising number of normal accidents
223
What is a cyber threat?
Efforts to attack, compromise, destroy, disrupt, or exploit activities involving computer networks, software, and hardware/infrastructure
224
What are the main categories of cyber attacks?
Sabotage/destruction, espionage, mislead early warning networks, transmit false launch orders, denial of service, or jam communications
225
What is cyber sabotage?
Vulnerability at all stages, Farewell Doctrine by CIA in 80s to mislead Soviets, Israel's Super program to disable Syria's air defense systems, Stuxnet
226
What is the main cyberthreat?
Espionage
227
What are potential cyber attacks during crises or wars?
Disrupt/destroy communications channel, distort perceptions about enemy intentions and capabilities, mislead early warning networks, transmit false launch orders, and third parties could trigger a nuclear crisis
228
What are other ways to categorize cyber threats?
Can affect various targets, can be actual or perceptual, can be disabling or enabling, remote or on-site attacks, visible or invisible, one time occurrence or long term
229
What are hypersonic missiles?
Missiles that are highly maneuverable, high speed, unusual attitudes, and can improve deterrance
230
What are the limitations of hypersonic missiles?
Not necessarily a revolution compared to the best ballistic missiles and easy to track, but fear could trigger dangerous responses
231
What is the potential risk of 3d printing?
Could help produce military items
232
What are the problems with social media?
Can propagate lies, can increase pressure on politicians on all kinds of nuclear issues, and can complicate signaling
233
What do optimists think about artificial Intelligence?
It will lead to more accurate missiles, more effective cyber attacks, and ability to escalate operations with humans out of the loop, ability to detect oncoming missiles, and help monitor the implementation of nuclear agreements
234
What do pessimists say about artificial intelligence?
Will destabilize nuclear dynamics at all levels, complicating civilian command and control, vulnerable to hacking, and deep fakes
235
How many satellites are currently in orbit?
5000
236
How many satellites does the US have in orbit?
900
237
How do satellites play a central role in nuclear operations?
Missile launch detection and early warning, tracking incoming missiles, guidance for precision munitions, and situation awareness to help build a better nuclear strategy, so the US relies on satellites
238
What does the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 say?
No nukes in orbit or on celestial bodies
239
What are the gaps in the Outer Space Treaty?
Nothing on conventionally armed space to space weapons, nothing on conventionally armed space to Earth weapons targeting satellites, nothing on non nuclear Earth to space weapons targeting nuclear facilities
240
Why is competition in outer space bound to grow?
Buildup of rivals, and the US has created the Space Force
