Exam 1 Flashcards
1
Q
What are the main obstacles to our understanding of nuclear issues?
A
Technical complexity, technological evolutions, secrecy, misleading rhetoric, lack of observable facts, limits of experts, nuclear issues are entangled with larger questions
2
Q
What are the consequences of the obstacles to our understanding of nuclear issues?
A
Fundamental disagreements and major gaps in knowledge
3
Q
What are the two processes to developing nukes?
A
Uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing
4
Q
What is uranium enrichment based on?
A
Uranium 235
5
Q
What are the advantages/disadvantages of uranium 235?
A
Advantage: easier to hide
Disadvantages: More complex and expensive
6
Q
What are the civilian applications of nuclear technology?
A
Producing electricity, medical care, motor energy, peaceful nuclear explosions (mining/earthworks)
7
Q
How many nuclear weapons exist today?
A
13,355 warheads
8
Q
How many nuclear weapons existed in the 1980s?
A
about 70,000
9
Q
How many nukes could be produced with the worlds fissile materials?
A
Hundreds of thousands
10
Q
How many nuclear tests have been conducted?
A
2056
11
Q
What is the combined yield of all of the world’s nuclear tests?
A
500 megatons, or 16,000 Hiroshimas
12
Q
What are some of the consequences of nuclear weapon development?
A
Medical and environmental
13
Q
What are the current nuclear weapon states?
A
US, Russia, UK, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan, North Korea
14
Q
When did the US first develop a nuclear weapon?
A
1945
15
Q
How many weapons are currently in the arsenal of the US?
A
5,800
16
Q
When did Russia first develop the nuclear weapon?
A
1949
17
Q
How many weapons are in Russia’s arsenal today?
A
6,370
18
Q
When did the UK first develop the nuclear weapon?
A
1952
19
Q
How many weapons are currently in the arsenal of the UK?
A
215
20
Q
When did France first develop the nuclear weapon?
A
1960
21
Q
How many nuclear weapons are in France’s arsenal?
A
300
22
Q
When did China first develop the atomic weapon?
A
1964
23
Q
How many weapons are currently in China’s arsenal?
A
290
24
Q
When did Israel first develop the atomic weapon?
A
late 1960s-70s
25
How many weapons are in Israel's arsenal?
80
26
When did India first develop the atomic weapon?
1998
27
How many nuclear weapons are in India's arsenal?
130
28
When did Pakistan first develop the nuclear weapon?
1998
29
How many nuclear weapons are in Pakistan's arsenal?
150
30
When did North Korea develop the atomic weapon?
2006
31
How many weapons are in North Korea's arsenal?
20
32
How many weapons are dispersed around the world under the NATO sharing agreement?
150-200
33
What scientific discoveries lead to the Manhattan Project?
Einstein's theory of special relativity and Rutherford's discovery of the atomic nucleus
34
What was the origin of the Manhattan Project?
Fears of a Nazi nuclear program
35
Who led the Manhattan project?
Oppenheimer
36
How many people were involved in the Manhattan project?
500,000
37
What was the total cost of the Manhattan Project?
$21 billion
38
When was the first ever nuclear test?
July 16, 1945
39
When was the bomb dropped on Hiroshima?
August 6, 1945
40
What was the name of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima?
Little boy
41
What type of bomb was dropped on Hiroshima?
Uranium
42
What was the death toll in Hiroshima?
90,000-160,000
43
When was the atomic bomb dropped on Nagasaki?
August 9, 1945
44
What was the name of the bomb dropped on Nagasaki?
Fat man
45
What type of bomb was dropped on Nagasaki?
Plutonium
46
What was the death toll in Nagasaki?
60,000-80,000
47
Did traditionalists think the US had to drop the nuclear bomb?
Yes
48
Why did traditionalists say the US had to drop the nuclear bomb?
To end the war and avoid losing hundreds of thousands of American lives in an invasion of Japan
49
Did the revisionists think that the US had to drop the atomic bomb?
No
50
Why didn't revisionists think the US had to drop the atomic bomb?
Japan was ready to surrender and expected US casualties were not as high as stated
51
What did revisionists say the real rationale of the US dropping the atomic bomb on Japan was?
To intimidate the Soviets and racism
52
What is the view of middle ground scholars on whether the US had to drop the atomic bomb?
Japan was not about to surrender, the bomb helped accelerate the end of the war, Truman deserves credit for his humanist approach, but there were other alternatives to invading Japan
53
What is the nuclear revolution theory?
Nukes have changed IR forever
54
What is the dominant view on the end of WWII?
The nuclear weapons dropped on Japan ended the war
55
What is the counter-argument on the end of WWII?
Soviet entry into the war on Japan ended WWII
56
What is the evidence that nukes were not a game changer?
Effectiveness of traditional bombing raids, view of US leaders, and the lack of focus in Japan on the nuke
57
How many nukes did US leaders expect to drop by November of 1945?
At least 10
58
How many days after Hiroshima did it take for Japan's Supreme Council to meet?
3 days
59
Was the nuke at the heart of the Supreme Council of Japan's decision making at the end of WWII?
No
60
Why did we overestimate the impact of the atomic bomb?
Archives were destroyed, apparent link between timing of bombs and Japan's surrender, US talking up the bomb to claim credit, Japan taking up the bomb to please the US
61
How many nuclear tests did the US conduct in the Marshall Islands?
About 100
62
Why does it matter that we reassess the role of nukes in 1945?
Because it is the only case of nukes being used, its a crucial case to assess the roles of nukes in International Relations
63
What assumptions are made when discussing the nuclear revolution?
Leaders will act with more caution, military victory/conquest is no longer possible, and building huge nuclear arsenals is pointless
64
What is the concept of deterrence?
The prevention of action by the fear of consequences, in nuclear weapons talk, having a secure second strike
65
What is the assumption made about nuclear deterrence?
It will enhance security
66
What are the questions states must ask when practicing deterrence?
What do you want to deter, how many nukes, where will they be deployed, what delivery vehicles, what level of readiness, is nuclear war fighting even an option
67
What is the policy of minimum deterrence?
Deter nuclear attacks only on the homeland and no first use
68
What are nuclear weapons like in minimum deterrence states?
Few weapons and low accuracy
69
What is the alert status in minimum deterrence states?
Low alert, de-targeted weapons, de-mated weapons
70
What are the examples of minimum deterrence states?
China and North Korea
71
What is the doctrine of limited deterrence?
Deter nuclear attacks on the homeland and deter some other attacks (chemical/biological)
72
What are nuclear weapons like in limited deterrence states?
Few weapons but accuracy matters
73
What is the alert status in minimum deterrence states?
Some assets on alert
74
What are the examples of limited deterrence states?
Uk, France, and India
75
What is the doctrine of maximum deterrence?
Deter all major attacks on the homeland and allies, seek the ability to destroy other arsenals, and strategize nuclear warfighting
76
What're nuclear weapons like in maximum deterrence states?
Huge numbers of weapons with huge accuracy
77
What is the alert status in maximum deterrence states?
High alert globally, targeted and acted, ready for preemptive use
78
What are the examples of maximum deterrence states?
US, Russia
79
What are some ways deterrence don't guarantee stability?
Risk of a security dilemma, risk of miscalculation, emboldenment, deterrence is even more unstable during crises, and some leaders can be irrational
80
What happened at the Potsdam conference in 1945?
Truman informed Stalin about the nuke
81
What did Truman hope would happen when he told Stalin the US had a nuke?
Stalin would endure a US led international order
82
What was the Baruch plan?
The US would hand over all its nukes to the UN to stabilize US Soviet relations
83
Why did the Baruch plan fall through?
There was too much mistrust
84
What is the pyramid of US nuclear decision making?
President (ultimate decision), NSC (nuclear policy guidance), JSC (planning), and SAC (operational plans)
85
What is the complexity of the US nuclear pyramid?
Technological change, bureaucratic disputes, coordination problems, enemies policies, intelligence gaps
86
Why was nuclear policy a "leap into the unknown"?
Unstoppable momentum due to the Cold War and unclear on the situations nukes would be used
87
What was the nuclear strategy in the first years of Truman's administration?
Nothing, with high secrecy levels and limited nuclear assets (9 nukes and only bombers)
88
What did NSC 30 say about nuclear strategy?
Be ready to use all means available, including nukes
89
Why was there a growing feeling of insecurity about the Soviets (and their nukes)?
They would not yield to US demands, America's arsenal could not destroy the Soviet Union, the developed a nuke in 1949, and a lack of intelligence on Moscows capabilities
90
What was the US response to the Soviet nuke?
Approving an early warning system, building up the nuclear stockpile, developing the h bomb (the Soviets developed one right after)
91
What is extended nuclear deterrence?
Using ones nuclear arsenal to deter attacks against allies
92
What was Eisenhower's strategy towards using nukes?
They were a weapon like any other
93
What is the doctrine of massive retaliation?
Any major soviet provocation against the US would lead the US to retaliate by any means instantly anywhere
94
Why was massive retaliation appealing?
it uses the size of the US arsenal to their advantage, compensates for Sino-Soviet troop numbers, and is cheaper than most troop deployments
95
What was the main evolution of the US arsenal under Eisenhower?
Reduce vulnerabilities (mobility and concealment), developing the nuclear triad, improving the collection of intelligence, and a buildup of weapons
96
When was the first US ICBM tested?
1957
97
When was the first SLBM patrol?
1960
98
How was intelligence collection improved in the 50s?
U-2 spy planes, and reconnaissance satelites
99
How many nukes did the US have by the late 50s?
18,000
100
What did a lack of credibility mean for massive retaliation?
It meant the US basically had to use nukes in any situation
101
What did risk of nuclear holocaust mean for massive retaliation?
Nuclear weapons could kill the human race, meaning it was difficult to imagine them being used
102
What was the alleged missile gap?
The launch of the Sputnik led to controversy about whether the Soviets had pulled ahead in weaponry, reality they were never really close
103
Why was there a perception of a missile gap?
Domestic politics approaching the 1960 elections and a growing nuclear lobby
104
How did Kennedy change US nuclear strategy from massive retaliation?
He went to a flexible response, which gave a larger number of options to Soviet aggressions, and made deterrence more credible
105
How did Kennedy fail at attempting to limit the risk of nuclear holocaust?
In 1961, the SIOP was developed, which placed tens of thousands of targets for nuclear weapons and attempting to regulate the use of nukes in general war, though there was not trust in the enemy
106
Why weren't nukes used during the Korean War?
Not enough US nukes, the dispersal of the enemy, risk of harming UN forces, risk of escalation, opposition of NATO allies, and fear of racism
107
What event led to the end of the Korean War?
stalin's death
108
What was the origin of the cuban missile crisis?
the soviets deployed nuclear armed missiles to Cuba, just a few miles off the US coast
109
Why did the soviets deploy nukes to Cuba?
improve their ability to hit the us mainland, respond to us deployment of nukes to turkey, deter the us from invading Cuba, respond to us deployments in Thailand, gain leverage in berlin, tame china
110
What were the options given to Kennedy during the Cuban Missile Crisis?
Blockade, air strike, invasion, coup, diplomacy
111
Why was a blockade chosen during the Cuban Missile Crisis?
Diplomacy would have been seen as weakness, but an attack would have massive casualties, NATO allies didn't want a war, and a blockade would keep more options open
112
What was the Soviet reaction to the US blockade?
Discussion of tactical nukes and threats, but no defiance of the blockade
113
What was the deal that ended the Cuban Missile Crisis?
Soviets would remove nukes from Cuba, and the US would end their blockade, remove missiles from turkey, and not invade Cuba
114
How close did we come to nuclear war during the cuban missile crisis?
Mutual restraint, but risk of inadvertent escalation
115
What are some examples of the inadvertent escalation during the cuban missile crisis?
A malfunction made a US spy plane go over Russian Siberia
116
What are some examples of the inadvertent escalation during the cuban missile crisis?
A malfunction made a US spy plane go over Russian Siberia, local soviet commanders considered using nukes
117
What was the legacy of the Cuban Missile Crisis?
superpowers moving towards moderation but persistent dangers
118
What are some precautions taken after the Cuban Missile Crisis?
conciliatory speeches, a hotline between the White House and the Kremlin, a limited test ban treaty, and kruschevs oust
119
what were some persistent dangers from the cuban missile crisis?
soviet determination for nuclear parity, more nuclear crises, overconfidence in us leaders
120
What is the traditionalist view of the cuban missile crisis?
Based on memoirs of former officials, traditionalists emphasized soviet provocations and the quality of Kennedy's leadership during the crisis, and made the US appear the unmistakable winner
121
What is the revisionist interpretation of the cuban missile crisis?
There was no real provocation by the Soviets, Khrushchev just wanted to deter the US and defend Cuba, and Kennedy overreacted due to prestige, his ego, and the upcoming midterms
122
What did post-revisionists say about the Cuban Missile Crisis?
Benefiting from declassification of new archives, post revisionists say that US hostility towards Cuba led Moscow to deploy nukes, and they made gains during the crisis, and Cuba asked for a nuclear strike if the US were to invade
123
How superior was the US nuclear program over the Soviets?
The US had more weapons and delivery vehicles, but the Soviets were building up their arsenal
124
What is the concept of mutually assured destruction?
Keeping each other hostage over the idea of a massive nuclear strike
125
What are the controversies of MAD?
Morality, difficult to explain, depend on rationality, risk of accidents, recognizing the Soviets as equals could embolden them
126
What was the idea of counterforce?
Being able to destroy an enemies arsenal with a first strike
127
What were the other dynamics of the Kennedy nuclear policy?
Nuclear buildup, Pentagon preparations for nuclear war, and tensions in Europe
128
What did Nixon do to try to curb the risk of nuclear holocaust?
Restrain US nuclear policy and arms control
129
What was the US rationale for arms control?
Limit the risk of all out nuclear war, repair reputational damage caused by Vietnam, and achieve detente
130
What was the Soviet rationale for signing arms control treaties?
Limit the risk of nuclear war, recognition of nuclear parity with the US, minimize costs of competition, and negotiate limits on US forwards based systems
131
What was SALT I?
Strategic Arms Limitation Talks, limited US ICBMs to 1,054 and Soviet to 1,618, and left the US advantage in MIRVs
132
What was the ARM Treaty?
No more than 2 ballistic missile systems in each country, to keep MAD
133
What was the legacy of SALT I and ARM?
First major treaties restricting nuclear capabilities, and paved the way for detente between US and Soviet Union
134
What was Nixon's madman theory?
threatening the use of force and simulating irrational behavior to scare the enemy into concessions
135
How credible was the madman theory?
There were constraints of what Nixon could do, and it led to questions about Nixon's fitness and there were insider efforts to keep him under control
136
Why did the US have such massive war fighting plans?
Strategic imperatives, like Cold War tensions across the world, modernization and growing in the Soviet arsenal, and soviet preparations for nuclear war, and also other dynamics, like bureaucratic momentum, domestic politics, and corporations pushing for more contracts
137
What was Carter's initial nuclear ambitions?
Transcend the cold war
138
What were Carter's initial plans in regard to the US nuclear arsenal?
Reduce it to 200 SLBMs and deferring the development of the neutron bomb (which would maximize radiation to kill civilians but leave infrastructure)
139
What was the SALT II agreement?
Reduce delivery vehicles to 2,250 and MIRVs to 1,320
140
What led to a Cold War revival?
Soviet advances in the third world, new Soviet ICBMs, and the Euromissile crisis
141
How did Carter harden his position on nuclear weapons?
He led new capabilities, a targeting policy designed to kill Soviet beliefs, hardened policy in response to euromissile crisis, and Congressional non-ratification of SALT II
142
What was Reagan's nuclear policy initially?
Assertiveness, with modernization of our nukes, aggressive rhetoric, and strategic defense initiation (aka Star Wars, a new missile defense program that wouldn't work)
143
How did Reagan's nuclear policy change?
He developed a personal aversion to nukes, and the Able Archer crisis led to a soviet nuclear alert, raising fears
144
What led to Soviet moderation?
Gorbachev's rise to power, the Chernobyl disaster, enduring vulnerabilities to US strikes, and financial hardships
145
What happened during the Reykjavik summit?
Reagan and Gorbachev came the closest to disarmament of arsenals, but it failed
146
What did the MTCR do?
Restrained the export of ballistic missiles across the world
147
What did the INF treaty do?
Prohibited land based IRBM
148
What agreements did Bush Sr make?
The START treaty, reducing nuclear warheads to 6,000 and reducing ICBMs and strategic bombers to 1,600, and the Open Skies Treaty, permitting aerial surveillance
149
What did America do towards disarmament during Bush Sr's administration?
Removed tactical nukes, lowered the alert status, cancelled missile development plans
150
What were the persistent uncertainties after the collapse of the Soviet Union?
Prospect of new nuclear weapon states, spread of nuclear technology, persistent debates over deterrence, and the vulnerability of arms control
151
When did the UK decide to build the bomb?
January 1947
152
What types of delivery vehicles does the UK have?
aircraft and submarines
153
What happened to the UK arsenal after the 1998 Strategic Defense Review?
the decision to get rid of strategic bombers
154
What is the Mutual Defense Agreement?
The US and UK would share classified information, have joint research ventures, and have tech transfers
155
When did the French decide to develop a nuclear weapon?
1954
156
What caused the French to speed up weapon development?
The Suez Crisis
157
Does France have a nuclear triad?
yes
158
What did France do in 1997 towards disarmament?
dismantle land based missiles
159
What led China to starting a nuclear program?
US threats
160
What led China to starting a nuclear program?
US threats
161
Why did China start development with swift progress?
Western defectors and soviet cooperation
162
What led to setbacks for China's nuclear program?
The Great Leap Forward and the Sino-Soviet split
163
What is China's nuclear doctrine?
No first use
164
Is China's nuclear posture changing?
While they are building up their nuclear program, many believe it is just about fear of the US
165
Why did Israel develop the nuclear bomb?
The Holocaust was fresh memories, a lack of territorial depth, and demographic inferiority
166
Does Israel have a nuclear triad?
Yes
167
When did Israel acknowledge they had the bomb?
Never
168
What are the potential thresholds of nuclear proliferation?
Nuclear weapons test, ability to strike another country, official recognition as a nuclear state
169
What are some different positions a state can take on nuclear weapons?
Is interested and can't develop, potentially interested, pretends to be interested, used to be interested, never interested
170
What is vertical proliferation?
When existing nuclear weapon states build more nukes
171
What is nuclear ambivalence?
When leaders don't know what they will do with their nuclear program
172
What is nuclear opacity?
When a state has the bomb but does not recognize it
173
What are the general objectives of demand side literature?
We must look at motivations to understand nuclear proliferation, there are many kind of motivations, and they are not always mutually exclusive
174
Why might developing a nuke help a nation's national security?
Building a nuke deters an attack
175
Why might developing a nuke be driven by technological momentum?
Technological potential creates temptations
176
Why might a state develop a nuke because of their identity?
Nukes create messages to other nations, and give states a sign of prestige
177
How might a leader's identity lead to a nuclear weapons program?
Some leaders, especially oppositional nationalists, see developing the bomb as a form of self-expression
178
How did developing the bomb affect Pakistan's identity?
The bomb would strengthen Pakistan's national cohesion and address their inferiority complex with India
179
How did developing the bomb affect India's identity?
They had a complex of inferiority due to British colonialization and opposed the NPT
180
How did developing the bomb affect France's identity?
They would be more independent from the US, would start catching up with the US, would address frustration with US-UK and US-West German relationships, and they would appear as a scientific nation
181
What did nuclear weapons have to do with France's general decline?
During WWII,m France was defeated in only 6 weeks, and the French empire was unravelling, so developing a nuke was a way France could stay great
182
How did developing the bomb affect Russia's identity?
Nukes are symbolic anchors for Russia, keeping them a powerful state even after the collapse of the Soviet Union and other crises
183
Why do some scholars say regime type doesn't matter in the proliferation of nukes?
The main drivers of nuclear weapons programs apply to both democracies and non democracies
184
Why do some scholars say democracies are more prone to proliferation than non democracies?
Leaders of democracies want nukes to boost their popularity
185
Why do some scholars say democracies are less prone to proliferation?
Because democracies generally trust each other and democracies are more likely to tolerate anti-nuke movements
186
Why are personalist dictatorships especially likely to develop nuclear weapons?
Personalist dictators fear foreign interference and doesn't want military leaders to be too strong, and is in a good place to develop nukes
187
What is the general argument of supply side literature?
To understand proliferation, we must look at foreign nuclear assistance
188
What might be considered sensitive nuclear assistance?
Weapons design, weapons grade fissile material
189
What is the impact of sensitive nuclear assistance?
Help a state leapfrog production stages, help the recipient state save money, help the recipient state reduce its exposure to external pressures
190
How might civilian nuclear programs help weapons programs?
There is a porosity between civilian and military nuclear programs
191
What is the weakness of supply side literature?
There is a growing number of nuclear assistance agreements, but only one state has acquired a nuclear weapon since 2000
192
What is a sprinting strategy?
Trying to build a nuclear weapon as fast as possible, less popular recently
193
What is a hiding strategy?
Trying to keep a nuclear weapons program secret to escape sanctions, very difficult and it slows the pace of progress
194
What is a sheltered pursuit strategy?
Obtaining the support of a great power who will protect the state from international pressures
195
What is direct foreign acquisition?
A state buying or being gifted a nuclear weapon by another state, theoretically possible, but unlikely
196
What is hedging?
Making steps towards nukes without completing the process
197
What is reversal?
The decision to slow or stop a nuclear weapons program
198
How many states have opted for reversal in history?
20
199
What can cause a nuclear reversal?
International community pressures, US promises/pressures, use of conventional force, regime change, economic distress
200
What is hedging?
Oscillating between non nuclear and nuclear status
201
What is technical hedging?
Taking the first steps towards a nuclear weapon, but not going further
202
What is hard hedging?
Refraining only from the final steps of building a nuclear weapon
203
Why is it beneficial for a state to practice hedging?
Less risky than full scale nuclear programs, can enhance security, can extract concessions from other states
