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IR 030 > Exam 2 > Flashcards

Exam 2 Flashcards

1
Q

What are the key insights of nuclear optimism?

A

Nukes make leaders more reasonable and nukes explain why there hasn’t been a world war since 1945

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2
Q

What policy do nuclear optimists support?

A

More nuclear weapons for more stability

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3
Q

What are the three approaches that nuclear pessimists say increase the risk of instability?

A

Risk of irrational leadership, even rational leaders will consider nuclear war, and there are inherent risks in large organizations

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4
Q

What did nuclear pessimists believe about Donald Trump?

A

His impulsive personality was a danger

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5
Q

Why might rational leaders consider nuclear war?

A

Assumption enemy is preparing for war, assumption some nuclear war scenarios are better than others, assumption using nukes is still better than being invaded, need to defend your credibility

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6
Q

What is a nuclear crisis?

A

A standoff between two nuclear powered state

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7
Q

What are inherent risks with large organizations?

A

Goals and identities, reliance on routines, impact of politics on organizations

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8
Q

Why are militaries more interested in preventative nuclear war?

A

They see war as likely in the near term and inevitable in the long run, they have less inhibitions towards using violence, they are offensive minded, and they only focus on the war

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9
Q

How are large organizations in general prone to accident?

A

Objectives can trump safety, complex procedures, denial, deflect blame and minimize problems, and political leaders are often unaware of what they do

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10
Q

How is the risk of accidents higher in developing countries?

A

They have insufficient resources, privilege opacity, have limited experience with nukes, and often have domestic instability

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11
Q

What are the six ways nukes can impact a states policy?

A

More aggressive policies, more ambitious policies, more independence from a powerful ally, nurture an alliance at a lesser cost, more resistance in nuclear crises, and better ability to compromise

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12
Q

What does it mean to have a more aggressive policy?

A

More conventional forces deployed, more belligerent rhetoric, greater tolerance for escalation

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13
Q

What does it mean to have a more ambitious policy?

A

Forge new alliances and make new commitments

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14
Q

What is an example of a more ambitious policy made?

A

The US making long term security commitments in Western Europe

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15
Q

What does it mean to have more independence from a powerful ally?

A

Less consultations with the ally, less concessions with the ally, growing readiness to challenge the ally’s domination

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16
Q

What is an example of a state becoming more independent from an ally?

A

France withdrawing from NATO integrated command structure in 1996

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17
Q

How can nukes nurture an alliance at a lesser cost?

A

It is less expensive than deploying massive troop numbers

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18
Q

What is an example of nukes nurturing an alliance?

A

China providing a bomb design for Pakistan

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19
Q

How can nukes lead to more resistance during nuclear crises?

A

If you have nukes, you can defend your interests more staunchly during a crisis

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20
Q

What is an example of nukes leading to more resistance during a crisis?

A

During India-Pakistan crises, Pakistan could resist India’s pressures for much longer

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21
Q

How do nukes lead to a better ability to compromise?

A

Nukes make you feel secure and bolster your self-esteem, so they may make you more willing to compromise

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22
Q

How did developing the nuke change the British policy?

A

Britain was able to reduce its conventional power without losing credibility, they helped Britain bolster its junior allies, and emboldened them against the US

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23
Q

What is arms control?

A

Restrictions on the development/use of nukes and missiles

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24
Q

What is nonproliferation?

A

Efforts to stem the spread of nukes

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25
Q

What is nuclear disarmament?

A

Reducing or dismantling nuclear weapons

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26
Q

What did the Acheson/Lillenthal report say? (March 1946)

A

The monopoly the US had on nuclear weapons would not last forever, there is porosity between civilian and military nuclear programs, and its impossible to build a credible international inspection system, so proliferation is inevitable

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27
Q

What were the principles of the atoms for peace?

A

The US would provide nuclear energy to other states in exchange for the promise states would never develop nukes

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28
Q

Why did the US start the atoms for peace project?

A

To help the third world and discourage recipient states from developing nukes

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29
Q

When was the International Atomic Energy Agency created?

A

1957

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30
Q

Why was the IAEA created?

A

To monitor the atoms for peace agreements and nuclear exports

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31
Q

What did the US believe about nonproliferation until the 60s?

A

US leaders had time and underestimated third world countries, were unsure nonproliferation was feasible

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32
Q

What led to growing momentum for nonproliferation?

A

Pressure from grassroots antinuclear groups, US/Soviet crises in Berlin and Cuba, a report that there would be 8 new nuclear states by 1973, and China’s nuclear test

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33
Q

Why was the US concerned about a Chinese nuclear weapon?

A

Fear of use, fear of Chinese nuclear blackmail, fear of proliferation dominoes

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34
Q

When was the arms control and disarmament agency created?

A

1961

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35
Q

When was the Gilpatric report created?

A

1965

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36
Q

What did the Gilpatric report say?

A

We are close to a point of nuclear no return and the US needs to act fast

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37
Q

When was the nonproliferation treaty created?

A

1968

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38
Q

What were the obligations for nuclear weapons states who signed the NPT?

A

No transfer of nukes to other states, no assistance for manufacturing/acquiring nukes, assistance in nuclear energy for peaceful purpose, try to disarm at some point

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39
Q

What are the obligations in the NPT for nonnuclear states?

A

Never develop nukes and accept international safeguards and inspections

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40
Q

Why were third world signatories of the NPT skeptical?

A

They thought the main threat wasn’t new nuclear weapon states, but the thousands of nukes the superpowers were building, they did not trust nuclear weapons states to disarm, they thought the NPT would put them in a permanent low position, and this triggered accusations the nuclear order was racist

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41
Q

How many states are signatories to the NPT?

A

191

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42
Q

What was America’s bilateral response to Indian nuclear tests?

A

More safeguard mechanisms on the sale of US nuclear reactors abroad, using the appeal of tech assistance to get more states to join the NPT, attempting to disrupt the civilian nuclear tech transfers in other states and strengthen the arsenal of sanctions

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43
Q

How did the use add more stringent safeguard mechanisms on its sales of US reactors abroad?

A

By cancelling the contracts to states that did not meet the standards

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44
Q

Why did Italy join the NPT (April 1975)?

A

The US offered civilian nuclear assistance

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45
Q

Who were potential buyers the US saw as a threat to nonproliferation?

A

Brazil, South Korea, and Pakistan

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46
Q

Who were the potential sellers the US saw as a threat to nonproliferation?

A

France and West Germany

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47
Q

What were the Symington/Glenn amendments (1976/1977)?

A

Threats to terminate US assistance to any state that exported or received nuclear tech in violation of IAEA safeguards

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48
Q

What is a multilateral response?

A

A response in cooperation with other states/organizations

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49
Q

When was the Nuclear Suppliers Group created?

A

April 1975

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50
Q

What was the intent of the Nuclear Suppliers Group?

A

To prevent the export of sensitive nuclear materials to states that did not have full IAEA safeguards

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51
Q

When was the missile technology control regime (MTCR) created?

A

April 1987

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52
Q

Why was the MTCR created?

A

To limit the proliferation of missile technology and unmanned vehicles that could be used for nuclear/chemical/biological attacks

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53
Q

When was the model additional protocol created?

A

May 1997

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54
Q

What did the model additional protocol do?

A

Make more stringent IAEA safeguards and more sweeping inspections

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55
Q

What is the problem with the literature on nonproliferation according to Gavin?

A

It underestimates the importance the US gave to nonproliferation

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56
Q

What does the literature wrongly say about US commitment to nonproliferation?

A

Nonproliferation was a post Cold War goal, inconsistent and selective, narrowly focused on rogue state, and driven by norms and ideals

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57
Q

What were the two goals of nonproliferation, according to Gavin?

A

Prevent the rise of independent nuclear forces and reverse/mitigate the consequences of proliferation

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58
Q

What were the legal/normative strategies the US used towards proliferation?

A

Rhetoric against nukes and treaties/institutions

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59
Q

What were the coercive strategies the US used against proliferation?

A

Sanctions, sabotage, threats of abandonment, and the consideration of preventive nuclear strikes

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60
Q

What were the assurance strategies the US used against proliferation?

A

Conventional arms sales and security umbrella

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61
Q

What were the mitigation strategies the US used ?

A

Prevent the final development/acquisition of nukes, convince existing nuclear states to disarm, prevent the development/acquisition of new missiles, and prevent new nuclear tests

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62
Q

Why was the US deeply committed to nonproliferation?

A

Minimize the risk of nuclear attack on the US, minimize the risk of being drawn in nuclear cerises, protect capacity to project conventional military power, maintain leverage over allies, prevent unstable weak states from being emboldened, minimize risk of accidents/theft

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63
Q

Why do some scholars say the US wasn’t as committed to nonproliferation?

A

The US policies were inconsistent

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64
Q

Why did the atoms for peace project have an impact on proliferation in a negative way?

A

Created technological momentum in many states, sent a bad signal to potential suppliers, sent a bad signal to the Soviet Union

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65
Q

Why were Nixon and Kissinger ambiguous on proliferation?

A

In 1969, they prevented a Soviet strike on Chinese nuclear facilities and informed Japan they would understand if they developed nukes. In 1973 they told the French president they support the European nuclear effort

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66
Q

Why is Israel an important case of nuclear proliferation?

A

They are a small country the US could have stopped, happened during the rise of nonproliferation, and Israel is central to Middle Eastern instability

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67
Q

What did Kennedy do about Israel’s proliferation?

A

He acknowledge Israel could develop a nuke if they wanted to, but did nothing

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68
Q

What did Johnson do about Israel’s nuclear program?

A

The US inspected a facility in Dimona, but he reassured Israel they could ignore US pressures, had superficial inspections, and did not consider security guarantees to disincentivize Israel

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69
Q

What did Nixon say about Israel’s nuke?

A

Acceptance, but asked Israel not to conduct a nuclear test and not to acknowledge

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70
Q

Why was US nonproliferation policy on Israel so inconsistent?

A

They were unwilling to break ties with an ally, pro-Israel forces in the US domestic political system, perception nuclear Israel may be more moderate, perception Israel nuke may reduce risk of US involvement in a major war in the Middle East

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71
Q

Why do technologically advanced states give nuclear assistance to other states?

A

Economic interests as well as strategic interests like an alliance or access to local resources

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72
Q

In what ways did the US pressure Pakistan not to develop nukes?

A

April 6, 1979: suspended all assistance to Islamabad

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73
Q

Why did the US start to support Pakistans nuclear ambitions?

A

After the Soviets invaded Afghanistan

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74
Q

What did Reagan do about Pakistan’s nuclear program?

A

In June 1981, he gave them a $3.2 B aid program, under the condition they would not test

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75
Q

What was the impact of the US reducing its commitment to nonproliferation in Pakistan?

A

Pakistan accelerated its nuclear program, China upgraded its nuclear assistance to Pakistan, and India launched a ballistic missile program

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76
Q

When did the US resume nonproliferation goals on Pakistan?

A

1989, when the soviets withdrew from Afghanistan

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77
Q

What was the overall conclusion of skeptics of the US commitment to nonproliferation?

A

Nonpro was often on the minds of leaders and the US had important successes, but it was inconsistent and those policies had consequences

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78
Q

What are sanctions?

A

International instruments of statecraft that punish or deny benefits to leaders, rulers, coalitions, or broader constituencies in a given state to dissuade those targets from pursuing nuclear weapons

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79
Q

What are the traditional problems with sanctions?

A

Require widespread support internationally to be credible, limited impact if the commitment to nukes is deep, and they impact the people of a country more than the leaders

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80
Q

Why do some scholars believe sanctions are more effective than commonly believed?

A

Other scholars concentrate on cases of actual sanctions, when they should focus on the threat of sanctions as well

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81
Q

What happened when the US threatened Taiwan with sanctions in 1976/1977?

A

Taiwan complied before sanctions could be imposed

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82
Q

What happened in South Korea when the U.S. threatened sanctions in 1975/1976?

A

They canceled their plans before any sanctions

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83
Q

How many strikes have their been against nuclear facilities?

A

16

84
Q

What are the potential consequences of a strike against another state’s nuclear facilities?

A

Delay the nuclear program, change the strategy of the target state, foreign suppliers reduce or stop their supplies, increased international pressures against the target state

85
Q

How might a target state’s strategy change after a strike on nuclear facilities?

A

By encouraging a hiding strategy, which may cause delays

86
Q

Why might foreign suppliers stop their supplies after a strike on a target state’s nuclear facilities?

A

Because they don’t want to antagonize the attacker or create more regional instability

87
Q

Why might an attack on a target state’s nuclear facilities increase international pressures?

A

It increases visibility in the media

88
Q

What is a taboo?

A

A normative belief leading to de facto prohibition

89
Q

What 4 factors explain the rise of the nuclear taboo?

A

Societal pressures, normative power politics, convictions of individual decision makers, and iterated behavior over time

90
Q

What do normative power politics mean?

A

The superpowers gave speeches to publicly delegitimize nukes

91
Q

When was the UN disarmament commission created?

A

1952

92
Q

Why did Truman not use the nuke in Korea?

A

Moral aversion

93
Q

When was the bulletin of atomic scientists created?

A

1945

94
Q

When was the communist ban the bomb petition circulated?

A

1950

95
Q

What were the three impacts of grassroots movements?

A

Change the discourse on nukes, elevate moral consciousness in the masses, mobilize the citizenry

96
Q

What was the initial response of the US government to grassroots anti-nuke movements?

A

A public relations offensive to defend nukes and attempts to derail anti-nuke groups

97
Q

Why was the nuclear taboo internalized in the 60s and 70s?

A

The Cuban Missile Crisis, US-Soviet stalemate, rise of nonaligned states, and democratization of nuclear policy in the U.S.

98
Q

What treaties were manifestations of the nuclear taboo?

A

1963: limited test ban treaty
1968: non proliferation treaty
1972: ABM treaty

99
Q

What are the nuclear weapon free zones?

A

Antarctic (1961, Antarctic Treaty), Latin America and the Caribbean (1967, Treaty of Tlateloco), South Pacific (1997, Treaty of Bangkok), Central Asia (2009, Treaty of Semei), Africa (2009, Treaty of Pelindaba)

100
Q

What is the rationalist explanation as to why nukes haven’t been used?

A

It is rational not to use nukes, for fear of retribution, and nukes are expensive

101
Q

What is the idea of the humanitarian revolution?

A

There was an expansion of empathy, prudence, reason, fairness, and conceptions of human rights following WWII, leading to nonuse of nukes

102
Q

What are the implications of trade offs between national and non national citizens for nuclear use?

A

Use nukes against another country could be acceptable if it saves your own citizens

103
Q

Why do some scholars believe disarmament is necessary?

A

Risk of general nuclear war, risk of nuclear accident, risk of nuclear theft, the socioeconomic costs are too high, long term environmental impacts can be devastating

104
Q

Why do some scholars think supporters of disarmament are alarmist?

A

They neglect the fact that nukes have prevented some wars, the ability of the government to manage nukes and reduce the risk of accident and the nuclear umbrella disincentivizes many Allie’s from beholding nukes

105
Q

Why do some scholars believe disarmament is unrealistic?

A

Nuclear knowledge can’t be uninvented, great powers will never abandon nukes, pariahs will never disarm, recent geopolitical trends, even if we achieve full disarmament one state will develop nukes again

106
Q

Why do some scholars believe forcing other states not to build nukes can be more dangerous?

A

Sanctions can have harmful effects, can make states more hostile, and military measures can have hurtful effects

107
Q

Why do some scholars believe that a world without nukes could be more dangerous?

A

Large scale territorial consequences will be tempting again, and hedging states will have more leverage

108
Q

Why would hedging states have leverage in a world without nukes?

A

They could extract concessions and blackmail other states during a crisis

109
Q

What did the 1961 UN general assembly resolution say about the use of nukes?

A

Using nukes would violate the rules of international law and humanity

110
Q

What did the 1996 international court of Justice ruling say about the use of nukes?

A

They are unable to conclude definitively if the use of nukes would be lawful

111
Q

When was Obama’s Prague speech?

A

April 2009

112
Q

What measures did Obama start to take towards global zero?

A

More transparency about the U.S. arsenal/strategy, new START treaty, 4 global security summits

113
Q

What were the limits of Obama’s commitment to global zero?

A

He led a major U.S. nuclear modernization and refused to engage in a UN campaign too denounce the humanitarian impact of nukes

114
Q

What were the strategic factors that caused global zero to fail?

A

Americas enduring drive for primacy, Russia/China/North Korea nuclear policies, and the reluctance of allies to see the U.S. disarm

115
Q

What political factors caused global zero to fail?

A

Republicans pushed for nuclear modernization and democrats thought it would make them sound weak

116
Q

What are the bureaucratic and business factors that. Sude global zero to fail?

A

Pentagon didn’t want their budget to be reduced and military corporations wanted new contracts

117
Q

What was the origin of the treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons?

A

Nonnuclear states believed the nuclear states betrayed the rest of the world by not disarming

118
Q

What did the nuclear ban treaty (Sept 2017) say?

A

Disarm,Andy of nukes, no deployment of nukes in another state, assistance TK those impacted by nukes, assistance to address nuclear environmental impacts

119
Q

What are some critiques to the ban treaty?

A

Major nuclear states probably won’t ever sign it, there’d be no authority to check compliance, it would weaken the NPT, and it doesn’t reflect the will of the people

120
Q

What is the goal of supporters, if they know nuclear states won’t ever sign the ban treaty?

A

To delegitimize the bomb, raise global awareness on humanitarian consequences and the NPT’s failure

121
Q

When did concerns about nuclear terrorism first start?

A

During the Cold War

122
Q

What was the nunn lugar cooperative threat reduction program?

A

A US Russia cooperation to secure or eliminate former soviet nukes and materials, and ensure scientists would not be hired by dangerous people

123
Q

Who was Aum Shinrikyo?

A

A terrorist group in Japan that tried to purchase nuclear materials from the U.S. and Russia and purchased 500,000 acres in Australia

124
Q

What are the four types of nuclear terrorism?

A

Steal/buy nukes, steal/buy fissile material, build a dirty bomb, and attack nuclear power reactors

125
Q

What were the main countries of concern that nukes would be stolen or bought from?

A

Russia and Pakistan

126
Q

What were the terrorist groups thought to be the biggest threat?

A

Chechen factions, Hezbollah, doomsday cults, and Islamist groups

127
Q

What is a dirty bomb?

A

Conventional explosives that release radioactive material

128
Q

What Islamist terrorist groups are potential nuclear terror threats?

A

Al Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Pakistani Taliban, ISIS

129
Q

Since when has Al Qaeda had nuclear ambitions?

A

1998

130
Q

When did the U.S. find out Al Qaeda was working on dirty bombs?

A

2003

131
Q

Why was Al Qaeda interested in nuclear weapons?

A

Deter a U.S. attack, avenge the Muslim community, put Al Qaeda at the center of the terrorist map, trigger a clash of civilizations

132
Q

What were the breakthroughs for ISIS in nuclear development?

A

2014: allegedly captured nuclear materials
2016: plots of biological/nuclear attacks in Europe

133
Q

What is nuclear security?

A

All the measures, precautions, and active defenses used to prevent fissile material or nuclear weapons designs and components from falling into the wrong hands

134
Q

What does homeland security to do for nuclear security?

A

Secure the borders and reactors

135
Q

What is the paradox of homeland security?

A

Complex safety mechanisms can increase the risk of accidents, more guards leads to more insider threats, and social shirking (becoming less vigilant because they assume other guards will do the job)

136
Q

What did the global war on terror do to increase security?

A

Effort to punish terrorists and deter state sponsors

137
Q

What hampered the goal the US had to secure vulnerable nuclear stockpiles?

A

Tensions with other states

138
Q

What tensions with Russia hampered the goal of nuclear security?

A

Disputes about the process and problems as the relationship unraveled

139
Q

What tensions with Pakistan hamper the goal of nuclear security?

A

US discovery of AQ Khan, Pakistans double game against the U.S. in the Afghan war, Pakistan’s growing vulnerability to terrorism

140
Q

Why is Pakistan so vulnerable to nuclear terrorism?

A

Many terrorist movements, geographic distribution of nuclear facilities, affinities between some scientists and terrorist, corruption, poor transportation network, and civil military relations

141
Q

What did UNSC Resolution 1540 (2004) do?

A

Criminalize proliferation to nonstate actors

142
Q

What did the proliferation security initiative (2004) do?

A

Monitor cargo on the high seas

143
Q

What did the nuclear terrorism convention (2005) do?

A

Criminalized acts of nuclear terrorism

144
Q

What did the nuclear security summits do?

A

Upgrade the protection of material/facilities worldwide

145
Q

Why is it difficult to close the nuclear black market?

A

Spread of nuclear technology and know how, illegal activities are lucrative, and actors on the black market use sophisticated techniques

146
Q

Why do some scholars believe terrorists can not be deterred?

A

Terrorists are irrational and most terrorists don’t have a territorial base to retaliate against

147
Q

What stronger measures do those who think we cannot deter terrorists think we need?

A

Homeland security, reliable ballistic missile defense, fighting preventive wars

148
Q

Why do some think deterrence against terrorists is viable?

A

It may be less effective than during the Cold War, but still remains viable and relevant

149
Q

What is deterrence by punishment beyond perpetrators?

A

Identifying high value targets, including terrorists’ families, response may have to be disproportionate

150
Q

What are the critiques of deterrence by punishment?

A

May be immoral and could lead to recruitment of new terrorists

151
Q

What is indirect deterrence?

A

Target the rogue states who transferred nuclear materials or failed to protect those materials, and target financiers who help fund terrorist movements

152
Q

What is deterrence by denial?

A

Convince the terrorists an attack won’t work and need a multi-level approach

153
Q

What is the multilevel approach to deterrence by denial?

A

Tactical defense, strategic defense, bolstering societal resistance (solidarity, don’t turn against minorities, economic stability mechanisms, ensure politicians won’t overreact)

154
Q

What is deterrence by counter narrative?

A

De legitimizing terrorists in the groups they are trying to win over

155
Q

How are Islamic terrorist groups deterred by counter narrative?

A

Pointing at contradictions in the Koran, pointing at the possibility of muslim casualties, finding legitimate voices in muslim countries that those terrorists try to appeal

156
Q

Why is stealing or buying a bomb from a state hard?

A

All nuclear states have incentives to protect their nukes, many bombs have safety mechanisms, and many bombs need active maintenance

157
Q

Why is procuring fissile materials hard?

A

There have been few attempts, and those attempts have been too little to build a nuke, disconnect between thieves and buyers

158
Q

Why is building a nuclear weapon hard?

A

Terrorist groups need hidden facilities, sophisticated equipment, scarce raw materials, scientific talent and ample time, which is very difficult during the global war on terror

159
Q

Why is transportation of a nuke hard?

A

Long journeys across unfamiliar terrain, pursued by authorities all along, need to rely on criminal networks to cross borders, radiation can be detectable

160
Q

What is Mueller’s assessment on the probability of nuclear terrorism?

A

If you have 20 inevitable hurdles to terrorists executing a nuclear attack, and a 50% chance of success in each, your odds are 1 in about 3.5 billion

161
Q

Why do some say terrorists are not that capable to get nuclear weapons?

A

They only inflict about 200-300 deaths per year, the same amount as Americans who drown in their bathtubs, and terrorists are not innovative enough, with their only real innovation since the 70s, suicide bombing

162
Q

How did Aum Shinrikyo’s attempt to obtain a nuclear weapon go?

A

They had lots of money, but made dozens of mistakes in judgement, planning, and execution leading to them never coming close to nuclear capability

163
Q

What was al-Qaeda’s approach to nuclear weapons?

A

It was reported them purchased 20 nukes from Chechen mobsters, but they never had a coherent strategy, and there were internal divisions on nukes, with a budget of only $4000 on nuclear development

164
Q

What is ISIS’s approach to nuclear weapons?

A

Deprived of any land base since March 2019, despite public claims of seeking nuclear weapons, they were unfounded and meant to incite fear

165
Q

Why are rogue states unlikely to give nukes to terrorists?

A

Rogue states don’t have may use nukes, they fear terrorists could use nukes in unintended ways, they fear being targeted by the international community, and they fear the devastating response from the attacked state

166
Q

Why is nuclear terrorism such a big topic despite low risks?

A

Sincere concerns but also media hype, political interests, bureaucrat and corporations with a vested interest in fear

167
Q

Why do some scholars think terrorists can build a dirty bomb or a crude nuclear weapon?

A

Democratization of nuclear knowledge, and past experiments showing people unexperienced with nukes could build a crude one

168
Q

Why do some think that stolen fissile materials is a real threat?

A

While fissile materials in civilian nuclear uses may not be usable for regular nuclear weapons, they are more than capable for a dirty bomb

169
Q

Why do some scholars think stealing a nuke is possible?

A

Corruption is rampant in some parts of the world and security of many nuclear facilities remains deficient

170
Q

Why do some scholars think that terrorist can use a stolen nuke?

A

Nukes in Russia/China/India/Pakistan don’t have as many safety devices

171
Q

Why can’t borders be defended 100% from a nuke?

A

Powerful smuggling networks, plutonium/HEU can be hidden, no need to reach checkpoint, globalization leads to huge flows of goods and people, and US failure to stop drug trafficking

172
Q

Why do some scholars think it may be reasonable to think a state may transfer nukes to terrorists?

A

Identifying culprits may be difficult, with a nuclear detonation destroying all evidence, it would be difficult to determine which state it came from, and uncertainty in the wake of an attack would make the threat of retaliation less credible

173
Q

What is the problem with the nuclear revolution theory?

A

Technological progress can alter the balance between offensive and defensive weapons systems, is everyone has incentives to improve them

174
Q

What is the new era of counterforce?

A

Recent technological changes have generated breakthroughs that favor offensive strategies, so a first strike is easier and maintaining a secure second strike is harder

175
Q

What are the three core foundations of nuclear deterrence?

A

Hardening, concealment, and redundancy

176
Q

What was hardening like in the past?

A

States hardened their assets to maintain secure second strike and attacker’s lack of precision reduced incentives to attack

177
Q

What is fratricide?

A

Multiple weapons targeting the same area risk destroying/deflecting each other

178
Q

How has hardening changed in recent years?

A

Weapons have become much more accurate, reducing risks involved

179
Q

What is the history of concealment?

A

States concealed their assets to maintain a second strike capability (missile silos: camouflage and decoys, missile launchers: embarked on mobile assets, submarines: depth of the ocean) and limits of intelligence collection

180
Q

Why has concealment become much more difficult?

A

intelligence breakthroughs make concealment more difficult

181
Q

What are countermeasures to intelligence collection?

A

Radar jammers, anti-satellite weapons, timing movements to avoid satellites, minimizing communication

182
Q

What are the limits to countermeasures against intelligence?

A

Expensive, impractical, escalatory

183
Q

Why are submarines becoming more difficult to hide?

A

Low frequency active sonars, underseas drones, deep ocean sonars

184
Q

What is the history of redundancy?

A

States built redundant systems to protect their second strike capabilities, including multiple types of nukes and delivery systems, multiple military bases, multiple communication networks, and multiple early warning systems

185
Q

Why is redundancy more difficult to achieve?

A

Offensive weapons are more precise and destructive and the size of arsenals has dramatically declined

186
Q

Why do some scholars say the US should not refrain from the nuclear technological race?

A

It may trigger instability, but the US can’t ignore technological change, the US must exploit technological change, and if dominant, the US will deter their enemies

187
Q

Why do some scholars say the US should refrain from the nuclear technological race?

A

The US has a responsibility in slowing down and negotiating

188
Q

What technologies were developed to try to achieve nuclear primacy under Bush Jr?

A

General increase in offensive power, low yield warheads, Earth penetrating weapons, anti-satellite weapons

189
Q

Where did Bush Jr reassert potential first use scenarios?

A

2001 NPR and 2005 JCS doctrine

190
Q

What were the scenarios offered by the 2005 JCS doctrine that could lead to first use?

A

To overwhelm an adversary with WMDs, to seek rapid and favorable war termination on the US terms, to guarantee success of US led operations and to demonstrate US intent/capabilities

191
Q

How did the quest for nuclear primacy look under Obama?

A

Some strides toward disarmament but extensive definition of the purpose of US nukes, announcement of major modernization program, refusal to adopt a no first use policy

192
Q

Why do some scholars say the 2018 NPR is dangerously assertive?

A

Dark view of international environment, alarming change in tone, and heightens the risk of nuclear use

193
Q

What are some of the more aggressive parts of the 2018 NPR?

A

The US would deter significant non-nuclear strategic attacks, rejection of arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament, development of low yield options against regional aggression, expansion of modernization, and declining transparency

194
Q

What are the costs of the modernization program?

A

$1.2T-$1.7T

195
Q

Why do some scholars say that the assertiveness of the 2018 NPR is the right move?

A

America has neglected its nukes for too long, the US needs to adapt to a new strategic environment, the cost of nuclear modernization is minimal, the US must maximize its strategic superiority, the US needs tactical nukes against Russia and China,

196
Q

How many nuclear warheads does the United States currently have?

A

5,800

197
Q

How many domestic sites does the US have warheads at?

A

24

198
Q

How many countries outside the US have US nukes?

A

5

199
Q

How many nukes are ready for delivery?

A

3,800

200
Q

How many nukes are on ballistic missiles?

A

1,300

201
Q

How many nukes are on strategic bombers?

A

300

202
Q

How many nukes are on US bases in Europe?

A

150

203
Q

How many nukes are in storage?

A

2,050

204
Q

How many nukes have been retired?

A

2,000

205
Q

How many delivery vehicles does the US have in total?

A

800

IR 030 (3 decks)

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