Factors Affecting A Referendums Likely Success

Question 1

6 factors affecting a referendums likelihood of success

Answer 1

Double Majority
Timing
Bipartisan Support
Two-Chamber Support
Conservative
Information

Question 2

Double majority Provision

Answer 2

This provision requires that a proposed referendum receive a vote of ‘yes’ from a majority of voters in a majority of State, that is at least 4 out of 6. There have been five instances where a majority of ‘yes’ votes has been achieved across the nation but not within a majority of individual states. Given the diversity of opinion in Australia it is very rare that one proposal gain that much support

Question 3

Timing

Answer 3

Timing is critical to the success or failure of a proposed referendum which are usually held at the same time as elections. Voters are often more interested in the election. As a result voters may cast a ‘no’ vote simply because they are unsure about the nature of the change or whether they feel it is necessary. Voters may also vote ‘no’ if they have not allowed enough time to consider the proposal before the public vote is conducted.

Question 4

Bipartisan support

Answer 4

Bipartisan support refers to both major political parties supporting a single cause. Historically, when the government and the opposition have supported the proposed referendum they are more likely to be successful. However if either party does not support the referendum this is likely to influence their supporters as voters are likely to vote in a manner that is consistent with the stance of the party they support.

Question 5

Reluctance to change

Answer 5

Changing the Constitution is a significant undertaking and as such people are often reluctant to change. If voters are merely reluctant to legislative change all together they may vote ‘no’ by default irrespective of the nature of the proposal. If voters are conservative they are more likely to oppose change

Question 6

Two chamber support

Answer 6

As a requirement of s.128 a referendum proposal must be passed by both houses of Commonwealth parliament. This can act as a hindrance to the success of a proposal as MP’s who did not vote in favour of the proposal may still express their views and thus influence the public. If the bill is passed by only a single house the Governor-General can (pursuant to the ‘deadlock provision’ under s128) decide whether to submit the referendum to the public.

Question 7

Information provided

Answer 7

Given how significant referendums are to the Constitution there is always plentiful information provided outlining reasons for and against the proposed referendum. Preambles to referendums also usually contain extensive information. There may be too much information provided, it may be confusing or difficult to understand and voters may opt to disregard it completely. As a result voters may not be fully informed about the proposal and may vote ‘no’ by default.

Question 8

Double majority provision positive

Answer 8

The double majority protects the smaller states from being dominated by the larger states because it is necessary to have a majority ‘yes’ vote in a majority of states. This decreases the chance that a state might be unfairly treated by the referendum’s proposals.

Question 9

Information provided positive

Answer 9

Information is sent to all households outlining the reasons for and against the proposed change to the Constitution. Members of political parties discuss the reasons for and against the change in the media. While this can cause confusion for many, for others it helps provide them with enough information to make an informed decision