F3 Factors that influence political stability after the early period Flashcards
What are the factors which influence political stability after the early period (5)
- Leaders
- Constitutional Processes + Elections
- Dealing with opposition
- Role of military
- Role of Cold War
* Political culture/context
How did leaders influence political stability?
Leaders’ political strategies
1a. Masters of political manoeuvres to shore up power base under maximum rule. Manipulation of formal structures to consolidate power.
1b. Leaders’ ties to military. Ensured complete control over bureaucracy.
Leaders’ political styles
2a. Personal style of relying on a core group of people led to systems of patronage (I, M). Cultivated informal circles of influence and deep patronage networks. Assured of political support through mutual benefit.
2b. Astute reading of political dynamics. Skillful leaders able to manoeuver different political groups and resources adeptly. Positive responses stabilised politics.
Examples of political strategies – political manouvres to shore up power base under maximum rule? etc
P: Marcos — master of constitutional manoeuvres during martial law, granting himself unlimited powers for an indefinite period of time
I: Suharto — forced amalgamation of opposition groups in 1973 to erode their support base
Examples of leaders’ ties to military, ensuring complete control over the bureaucracy?
I: Suharto and choice of ABRI General; personnel rotation. Rewarded loyal military officers with lucrative monopolies, forestry connections and access to oil. Inbu Sutowo, a close military associate, headed the state oil company Pertamina in 1968. 1983, appointed Benny Murdani as ABRI commander. When Murdani led ABRI disagreements against Suharto, was replaced in 1988.
P: Marcos and Fabian Ver. Fabian Ver, close supporter, was promoted from Captain in 1965 to Brigadier general in 1970, and tasked with leading the National Intelligence Security Agency.
Examples of leaders’ personal styles - relying on a core group of people?
M: Mahathir — concentration of wealth among his economic allies formed his elite support base: e.g. finance minister Daim Zainuddin and associates were given shares in firms such as berjaya in return for government approval to list them
I: Cukongs such as Liem Sioe Liong provided capital and connections
Examples of astute reading of political dynamics? Skillful leaders who were able to manoeuver different political groups and resources adeptly?
T: Prem - strategized among different groups (Young Turks, businesses etc) for stability in the 1980s
SG: Goh Chok Tong - responded to different demands in 1990s, improved PAP’s electoral majority
Limits to role of leaders?
In semi-democracies, role is checked by constitutional processes (SG and M)
In max regimes, role is limited by its dependence on other groups for influence.
Examples of dependence of max leaders on other groups for influence?
I: Military and economic associates and patronage networks: 1998 loss of military support from Generals Susilo Babang and Wiranto — managed to overpower Prabowo (Suharto’s son in law) and pressed for Suharto’s resignation
P: Military and Church. Archbishop Jamie Sin and defection of air force and police, role is EDSA revolution/People Power
T: Role of monarch. 1992 — Thai King intervened to put an end to military repression of the masses, in support of democratisation. Chamlong Srimuang (leader of pro-democracy protests, former Bangkok governor) and General Suchinda (announced he would become PM despite not standing for elections) — both appeared on television, kneeling in front of the King as he called for disengagement between the two. Elections held in 1992.
How did constitutional processes influence political stability?
In max regimes:
- Constitutions are manipulated by new leaders to bolster their own political power bases — leaders precede norms (negative LT effect)
- Elections are farcical, accompanied by strict controls over political opposition, and are sometimes vehicles for party propaganda. Hobbled political opposition and entrenched governments.
In semi-democratic regimes:
- Safeguard important political process of participation. Adherence in general, norms precede leaders (positive effect)
- Safeguard interests of different groups. Setting the parameters of political discussion and conversation. Regulating historical tensions and potential sources of instability (positive effect)
Examples of constitutions being manipulated by max leaders to bolster their own political power bases?
T: Constantly changing constitution, changed as frequently as governments changed, usually a means to protect the interests of those in power, mirrored and perpetuated instability, one of the most stable periods under Sarit, 1959-1963, lacked constitution and elections
P: Marcos granted himself unlimited powers under martial law w 1973 constitution, powers further extended with 1981 constitution - referendums held for constitutional
Examples of farcical elections in max regimes?
I: Presidential Elections with Suharto as the only candidate
B: Party endorsement of candidates, 1990 election results were nullified. 1969 law assured government in MPR (People’s Consultative Assembly) with 33% appointed, enough to block constitutional amendment, 1972 forced amalgamation of political parties into 2 (PDI and PPP), screened opposition candidates, Suharto fell in 1998
Examples of constitutional processes and elections safeguarding processes on political participation in semi-democracies?
SG: Regular elections, few restrictions against formation of political parties, good conduct (despite gerrymandering) - some degree of political expression
M: Regular Elections, Post-1969 May 13 incident, resumption of Parliament in 1971 - restoration indicated the strength of parliamentary rule
Examples of constitutional processes and elections safeguarding different groups and regulating historical tensions?
SG: Regulation of interracial sensitivities with 1970 Presidential Council on Minorities, 1988 GRC scheme, 1990 Maintenance of Religious Harmony Act (forbade religious groups from interfering with politics) → response to 1964 Racial Riots, racial tensions during merger period in general
M: 1971 - restoration of Parliament → movement towards a Malay-based system, constitutional entrenchment of Malay rights, banned discussion on sensitive topics such as the rights of Malays and other communities
What are the limits to role of constitutional processes?
- Constitutions by themselves are insufficient to ensure stability. Depends on purpose behind constitutions; and leadership behaviours which respect political conventions
- Leaders’ respect for constitutional norms directly influences stability
- On its own, constancy of constitutions does not promise political stability. The nature and purpose of constitutional norms matter more
Examples of purpose behind constitutions being more important?
I/P: Manipulation of constitutions meant for monopolization of political power led to loss of LT legitimacy and political opposition (P: 1972 Marcos imposed martial law, I: 1985 Ormas legislation — govt dissolution of societal organizations without a court order)
SG/M: Semi-democratic constitutions allow for some degree of political participation and internal unity.
Examples of leaders’ respect for constitutional norms directly influencing stability - leaders’ actions more important?
SG/M: Respect for democratic conventions (see above)
T: Constant abrogation of constitutions and thus instability
