F1 Factors for early democratic instability

Question 1

What were the factors for early democratic instability?

Answer 1

Conditions of instability:
1a. Political parties’ fractiousness in absence of an established central authority
1b. Severe challenges to the state from communist and ethnic groups
Leaders’ inability to perform:
2a. Inexperienced leaders from lack of colonial preparation and hasty decolonisation
2b. Unsound political and economic policies which delegitimised civilian governments
Presence of a strong viable alternative to the democratic governments:
3a. Increased legitimacy of the military in contrast to the loss of legitimacy of the democratic governments
3b. Worsening civilian-military relations. Loss of support for civilian leaders from military

Question 2

Examples of political parties’ fractiousness

Answer 2

Indonesia:

• Delayed Dutch return led to the emergence of multiple political groups: PKI, PNI, Masjumi, Indonesian Socialist Youth Party etc.
• Rise of PKI: nearly 3 million members by 1965, denounced Sukarno’s handling of budget.
• Divisions along geog lines (e.g. Masjumi voters in outer islands);
• Multi-party polarisation and lack of clear central authority after elections.

Burma:

• U Nu failed to unify party after shock death of Aung San (assassination):
• no close ties to the army
• while legions defected from BNA to Karen National Defence group and Than Tun’s White Flag communists

Question 3

Examples of severe challenges to the state from communist and ethnic groups

Answer 3

Burma:
Karen minority group - formed the Karen National Defense Group, refused to participate in Panglong Conference 1947

Indonesia:

• Regionally based rebellions from December 1956, bloodless coups carried out in Sumatran provinces by indigenous army officers who rejected central government’s over-centralisation and tolerance of PKI.
• 1958 PRRI (Pemerintah Revolusioner Republik Indonesia) rebellion by non-communist, anti-Sukarnoist and factional military dissatisfactions in Sumatra
• 1955-60: PKI grew from 500k to 3M — instigated insurgencies

Question 4

Examples of inexperienced leaders from hasty decolonisation

Answer 4

Burma:
Hasty departure of British in 1948 failed to prepare the political elites for democratic government. Assassination of Aung San left U Nu unprepared

Indonesia:
Sukarno — Hasty decol: Dutch independence in 1949 due to financial strains and US threat to suspend Marshall Plan — resulted in power vacuum

Question 5

Examples of unsound political and economic policies which delegitimised civilian governments

Answer 5

Burma:

• U Nu’s Buddhist Socialism - further antagonised ethnic insurgents.
• 1961: constitutional amendment to institute Buddhism as state religion — alienated 3 million minorities, surge in insurgencies
• By 1960, 1/10 of country overtaken by insurgents. Coup in 1962 to restore stability.

Indonesia:

• Sukarno’s poor economic policies - highly interventionist, leading to a large state sector composed of nationalized Dutch plantations, banks etc and an over-regulated private sector
• Economy approaching collapse: By 1965, inflation reached at least 500%

Question 6

Examples of increased legitimacy of the military

Answer 6

Indonesia:
- Second police action in 1948 - Republican Army fought against the Dutch.

Burma:

• Role of BNA in WWII Japanese Occupation
• Role in desisting ethnic insurgencies led to the growth of its confidence and stature, gave them the right to intervene amidst U Nu’s ineptitude

Question 7

Examples of worsening civilian-military relations

Answer 7

Indonesia:

• Sukarno trying to balance PKI and army over the issue of Papua,
• Sukarno emphasising continuation of revolution, a leftward shift in Indonesian politics, gravitated towards PKI and antagonised the army → led to eventual coup by General Suharto in 1965

Burma:
- U Nu’s decision for separate Arakanese and Mon states provoked military takeover in October 1958 (“caretaker government”) — military felt that “federalism is impossible, it will destroy the Union” (General Ne Win)