F2 Evaluation of outcomes Flashcards
1
Q
Extent of political stability? (4 arguments)
A
- Relative to earlier period of instability, clear period of stable rule under the same max government
- Leaders could also preempt potential challenges through various strategies, minimized political disunity and established clear centralised political authority
- Even when large scale opposition occurred, suppressed without shaking the regime
- In semi-democratic regimes, governments maintained control since independence despite competitive elections and sporadic challenges
2
Q
Limits to political stability?
A
- Recurrence: despite suppressing large scale opposition, recurrence of demonstrations point to government failure to deal with undercurrents of challenge and instability. Stability more apparent than real
- Time trend: By 1980s, max regimes came under fire from popular pressure. Max leaders failed to deal with opposition and fell
- Further instability followed after the removal of max leaders. Recurrence of popular demonstrations against leadership clearly suggests that the system was unable to deal with political change using conventional means of political participation. Further testament to the crippling of institutions and norms after decades of max rule
3
Q
Overall trends of political stability?
A
- Max regimes far more successful in their first few decades of rule, started to experience large scale opposition (which wouldn’t go away) from 1980s.
- Max regimes more likely to become unstable from 1980s than the semi-democratic regimes
- Countries which managed to maintain stability throughout:
- Govts with long term political legitimacy. Genuine political participation. In contrast, excesses of coercive methods led to loss of legitimacy and backlash for max govts by 1980s (SG,M vs I,P)
- Adaptable govts which could respond to political challenge and internal fissures (V: 1986 6th party congress and Doi Moi, SG: PM Goh’s shift towards consultative politics)
4
Q
Examples of large scale opposition suppressed without shaking the regime?
A
Indonesia:
- Malari riots 1974
- Tanjung Priok demonstrations 1984
Burma:
- University of Rangoon 1962
- Protests over low wages 1974
- 8888 protests 1988
5
Q
Examples of semi-democratic govts maintaining control despite competitive elections and sporadic challenges?
A
Malaysia:
- 1987 internal challenge from Musa Hitam and Razaleigh against Mahathir
Singapore:
- PM Goh’s shift towards consultative style which arrested the slide in PAP’s share in votes
6
Q
Examples of time trend? Max govts fell after 1980s
A
Philippines:
- Marcos overthrown in 1986 People Power Revolution/EDSA after calling for snap presidential elections.
- People Power supported by the Church — Archbishop Jamie Sin exhorted the Philippine people to flood the EDSA boulevard.
- Close to 2 million civilians gathered. Also lost support from the military (RAM)
Indonesia:
- Suharto forced to resign after 1998 AFC.
- Escalation after 4 students killed in the Trisakti University protests on 12 May 1998, beyond what the New Order could control.
- Loss of support from some within ABRI — students marching from Parliament to the Presidential Palace on 18 May were flanked by military officers from the Air Force, Navy and Marines.
7
Q
Examples of further instability after removal of max leaders?
A
Philippines:
- 1986: Elite disunity persisted during Aquino’s presidency.
- Juan Ponce Enrile set himself up in opposition to Aquino when she became president despite working with her to depose Marcos.
- Aquino had to deal with Marcos-instigated military coups against herself from 1986-89.
- 1992 Fidel Ramos restored the privileges of Marcos’ cronies, political dynasties continued.
Indonesia:
- Succession of 3 Presidents (Habibie,Wahid, Megawati) from 1998-2004
- no party managed to win the support from a majority of the population. Absence of strong successor faction or an organised and capable alternative.
