Extension Neglect Flashcards
Extension neglect[a] is a type of cognitive bias which occurs when the sample size is ignored while evaluating a study in which the sample size is logically relevant.[1] For instance, when reading an article about a scientific study, extension neglect occurs when the reader ignores the number of people involved in the study (sample size) but still makes inferences about a population based on the sample.
Extension neglect
Extension neglect[a] is a type of cognitive bias which occurs when the sample size is ignored while evaluating a study in which the sample size is logically relevant.[1] For instance, when reading an article about a scientific study, extension neglect occurs when the reader ignores the number of people involved in the study (sample size) but still makes inferences about a population based on the sample. In reality, if the sample size is too small, the results might risk errors in statistical hypothesis testing. A study based on only a few people may draw invalid conclusions because only one person has exceptionally high or low scores (outlier), and there are not enough people there to correct this via averaging out. But often, the sample size is not prominently displayed in science articles, and the reader in this case might still believe the article’s conclusion due to extension neglect.
Base rate fallacy or Base rate neglect
The tendency to ignore general information and focus on information only pertaining to the specific case, even when the general information is more important.
Compassion fade
The predisposition to behave more compassionately towards a small number of identifiable victims than to a large number of anonymous ones.
Conjunction fallacy
The tendency to assume that specific conditions are more probable than a more general version of those same conditions. For example, subjects in one experiment perceived the probability of a woman being both a bank teller and a feminist as more likely than the probability of her being a bank teller.
Duration neglect
The neglect of the duration of an episode in determining its value.
Hyperbolic discounting
Discounting is the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs. Hyperbolic discounting leads to choices that are inconsistent over time – people make choices today that their future selves would prefer not to have made, despite using the same reasoning. Also known as current moment bias, present-bias, and related to Dynamic inconsistency. A good example of this: a study showed that when making food choices for the coming week, 74% of participants chose fruit, whereas when the food choice was for the current day, 70% chose chocolate.
Insensitivity to sample size
The tendency to under-expect variation in small samples.
Less-is-better effect
The tendency to prefer a smaller set to a larger set judged separately, but not jointly.
Neglect of probability
The tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty.
Scope neglect or scope insensitivity
The tendency to be insensitive to the size of a problem when evaluating it. For example, being willing to pay as much to save 2,000 children or 20,000 children.
Zero-risk bias
Preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a larger risk.
