Exam Two Flashcards
how to forecast prices
moving average of number of months, put it in last month slot, actual-forecast, absolute value of error, square error
where to put weights for weighted moving average model
array 2
sum of absolute differences between actual value and forecast, divided by number of observations
mean absolute deviation (MAD)
widely-used error metric, sum of squared errors divided by number of observations
mean square error (MSE)
square root of MSE
root mean squared error (RMSE)
types of forecasting
what-if analysis, goal seek, trendline, [weighted] moving average, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, solver
types of time series data
seasonal, trend, cyclical, random
type of time series data, repeated over specific period
seasonal
type of time series data, increase/decrease predictably
trend
type of time series data, changes not of fixed frequency, usually due to economic conditions
cyclical
type of time series data, not any other type
random
a document that lists all the raw materials, components, parts, and subassemblies needed to manufacture or repair a product
bill of materials (BOM)
what is the x-axis and y-axis of the sawtooth diagram?
time and quantity on hand
what is the area between the minimum and maximum on the sawtooth diagram?
safety stock
another word for max in sawtooth diagram
cycle stock
dotted line on sawtooth diagram
reorder point
diagonal green lines on sawtooth diagram
usage rate
space between green lines on sawtooth diagram
lead time
what does Kaizen mean?
change good, “change for good”
what are the Kaizen principles?
know your customer, let it flow (zero waste, most efficient), go to gemba (go to where action is happening), empower people, be transparent
when was Kaizen introduced to the workplace?
introduced in 1986 to the world as systematic management methodology