Exam 3 Flashcards
What is the definition of alliances?
A formal or informal association of states for the (threat of) use of military force, in specified circumstances, against actors external to the alliance
What is a bilateral alliance?
An alliance with two states
What is a multilateral alliance?
An alliance with 3 or more states
Are most alliance offensive or defensive?
Defensive
What are related concepts to alliances?
Strategic partnerships (less commitment), non-aggression pacts, coalitions, hedging
What is a coalition?
Transitory cooperation (no permanent headquarters/staff/budgets)
What is hedging?
Adopting ambiguous practices to avoid having to choose sides
What are some international determinants of alliances?
Face a rising power, face a rising threat, to control allies, and obtain foreign assistance
What are some domestic determinants of alliances?
Similar regime-type and ideology (facilitate common interests and threat assessments), domestic political calculations (enhance the legitimacy of a weak leader), alliances among liberal states are especially song (but different ideologies is not always a barrier to alliance)
How are alliances institutionalized?
Bureaucracies have a vested interest in self-perpetuation and have an interest in task expansion
How do alliances cause socialization?
Allies increasingly trade and exchange tech/ideas/people and members develop deeper affinities with each other
How many allies does the US have?
68
What was America’s stance on alliances before 1941?
Alliances were seen as a risk and constraint
What was the first turning point in the US stance on alliances?
Pear Harbor
When was Pearl Harbor?
1941
What was the US realization on alliances after Pearl Harbor?
Made US leaders adopt a strategy of defense in depth, or a need to have US bases in Eurasia to stem potential threats
What was the second turning point in the US stance on alliances?
The globalization of the Cold War
What happened in 1950 that made the US realize they need alliances?
The Sino-Soviet alliance and the Korean War
What alliances did the US create after 1950 in response to the globalization of the Cold War?
NATO/ANZUS/alliance with Japan/CENTO/SEATO
What was the stance of the US on alliances post-Cold War?
Renewed endorsement
Why do some scholars believe that alliances are a huge asset to the US?
The deter adversaries, huge boost for US prestige, and make other states dependent on the US
Why do some scholars believe alliances can hurt US interests?
Risk of entrapment in local conflicts, risk of major financial burdens, risk of allies free-riding, and risk of antagonizing non-members
What are the main difficulties of US alliance management?
Tensions between military integration and political autonomy, different threat assessments, political backlash against US bases abroad, and cultural barriers
When was NATO created?
1949
What does Article 5 of the NATO charter say?
An attack against on member shall be considered an attack against all
What were US goals in NATO originally?
Contain the Soviet Union, prevent Germany’s reemergence, create the conditions of Western European prosperity, and entrench US influence in Western Europe
What happened to NATO post Cold War?
After the Soviet Union’s collapse, many expected NATO to die, but there were new members and new missions for NATO
What are the reasons for NATOs legitimacy?
The residual threat from Russia, new threats (like civil wars and terrorism), institutionalization/socialization, too for democratization, and prevent the emergence of an independent European military
Where did NATO go out of region after the Cold War?
Post 9/11, went to Middle East, but turned to Asia in 2017
What factors could disrupt America’s alliance networks in the future?
Relative decline of US power, the threat of Trump winning the presidency in 2024, and the threat of China’s economic appeal continuing to grow
Why have most states supported economic liberalism?
Free trade is good for every country, states should support private initiative, and states should pursue absolute gains
Since what period has the US promoted economic liberalism?
Post 1945
What are geoeconomic strategies?
The use of economic instruments to advance strategic objectives vis a vis other states. Neutralize your rivals geoeconomic strategies.
How do states invest in economic fundamentals to win great power competition?
Investments in math and science, investments in higher education systems
How do states protect strategic sectors with tariffs and subsidies?
Creation of Airbus to reduce Europe’s dependency on the US in the critical sector of aerospace, reorienting supply chains away from China to reduce dependency.
How do states encourage national companies to invest in other states’ strategic sectors?
Supporting investments in African uranium mines, backing Google’s investment in Germany
How do states leverage the size of their national market to obtain concession?
US agreements with LA to reduce reliance on Nazi Germany, China’s required technology transfers from Western companies
How do states create trade/investment controls?
New US regulations against Chinese tech acquisitions
How do states control international organizations?
IMF/WB spreading US standards in the third world, giving more money to US allies
How do states use foreign loans/aid to make other states dependent?
Marshall plan for Western Europe to stem communism and dominate the region, aid to African countries
How do states sign trade agreements that pull friends in your direction and keep rivals away?
Obama’s efforts in the TPP (but Trump withdrew in 2017, and since 2021, Biden hasn’t been able to revive the agreement), China’s RCEP trade agreement
How do states use sanctions to obtain strategic concessions?
Direct application of economic pressure, but risky. Can increase the targeted state’s resistance, can harm civilian populations in the target state, can hurt the country that imposed sanctions
When was the belt and road initiative started?
2013
What are the key features of the belt and road initiative?
Build infrastructure to connect China to Eurasia, means: FDI and trade, key domains: transport, energy, digital, finance
What are China’s main assets that hep with BRI?
State control and massive financial support
How does the BRI help secure China’s peripheries?
FDI/Loans/Infrastructure in surrounding areas, like Tibet, Xinjiang, South Asia, and Central Asia
What are the strategic benefits to China of securing their peripheries?
Reduce the risk of terrorism, stabilize relations with neighbors, reduce US local influence
How can BRI help China build influence near maritime chokepoints?
Control in the Malacca Strait, Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal, Panama Canal
What are the potential strategic benefits of China building influence near maritime chokepoints?
Facilitate China’s access to economic centers and natural resources, incentivize local states to oppose any US blockade on China
How does the BRI circumvent the US military encirclement of China?
Could reduce America’s ability to blockade China’s oil imports from the Middle East
How does the BRI incentivize other states to get closer to China?
As states become more dependent on China’s market/loans/FDI, they have incentives to support Beijing in other areas
What is some skepticism about BRI?
Many projects have stalled, controversies over labor/environmental/management standards, BRI’s debt trap diplomacy is unpopular, BRI is a financial disaster, unsustainable, and Western initiatives to rival BRI
What are some counterarguments to skepticism about BRI?
Most of the debt of the global south is owed to Western creditors, many developing countries were ignored before BRI, China has made adjustments to BRI, BRIs coverage in the US/West is often biased, Western alternatives only exist on paper
What is energy security?
The assured delivery of adequate of supplies of affordable energy to meet a state’s requirements, even in times of international crisis or conflict
How does energy security also apply to fossil fuel exporters?
They need stable markets and good prices, so there’s a need for global prosperity and they need to coordinate their production
Why will world energy consumption rise in the near future?
Growing populations and global economies
How is the global economy still being based in the consumption of fossil fuels a challenge to energy security?
They are located in more remote or hard to reach locations, expensive techniques, uncertain results, and deposits in the global commons are contested
Are fossil fuels growing or declining?
Declining
How are fossil fuel economies vulnerable?
In more than 20 countries, fossil fuels make up more than 50% of their export revenues, loss in economic/geopolitical influence, unrest due to domestic unemployment
What are the uncertainties surrounding green energy?
How, how much, and when should we invest in green energy?
How are energy supply routes increasingly vulnerable?
Extended/overstretched networks, natural wear and tear of infrastructure, attacks, climate change, great power attacks
How can states optimize their means of action?
energy
Creation of energy bureaucracies and task forces, like the US Department of Energy, or state-owned/state-controlled companies, like the CNPC in China
How can governments influence private energy business activities?
New laws and new tax incentives, like communist party officials on every private oil company, and US government cooperation with American oil companies
How can states optimize domestic production of energy?
Through new domestic sources of supply, like during the Shale gas revolution
When was the Shale gas revolution?
mid 2000s
What were the effects of the shale gas revoltion?
Bolstered the US economy, US became the world’s main oil producer, reduced US dependency on the Middle East, curbed Russia’s influence
Why do states increase their stocks of energy?
To be used during a war and alleviate domestic economic tensions
Why do states acquire overseas energy assets?
To guarantee supplies in case of war
Why do states optimize supply lines?
To maximize providers, routes, and types of energy
Why is China trying to diversify its energy supplies and energy routes?
To reduce America’s ability to blockade China’s oil imports from the Middle East near the Strait of Malacca or along China’s coastline
When have states conquered oil-producing areas for energy security?
Japan invading Borneo and Nazis invading Azerbaijan (both 1941-1942)
When have states defended oil-rich areas from conquest?
1979: US growing military presence in the Middle East
1990-1991: US intervention against Iraq
How can energy exports be an enabler of foreign policy?
Using energy supplies strengthens state power, like how coal fed Britain’s 19th century hegemony, since other navies were dependent on British coal supplies
How can energy be a cement in alliances?
Source of economic/military assistance, source of diplomatic support
Ex: 1945: Saudi-US oil for security, today: Venezuela’s anti-American alliance with Bolivia and Cuba, 1945: Europe, NATO, US control over the oil resources of the middle east
What were Russia’s attempts to keep leverage over the EU before 2022 in terms of energy?
More than 30% of EU gas supply. 2011: Completition of Nord Stream 1, 2021: Completion of Nord Stream 2
What Wass the rationale of the Nord Stream for Russia?
Make Germany highly dependent, increase EU dependency, marginalize Ukraine
What is the definition of terrorism?
The calculated use of violence or threat of violence to insulate fear. Intended to coerce or intimidate governments or societies in the pursuit of goals that are generally political, religious, or ideological
Why are the waves of terrorism?
1880s: anarchist wave
1920s-1960s: anti-colonial wave
1960s-late1990s: New Left Wave
1979-:religious wave
How are patterns of terrorism more nuanced than the typology of waves of terrorism suggests?
Coexistence of different types of terrorism over time, constant mutations, terrorists often have multiple identities, terrorist movements learn from each other
What factors enabled terrorism in the mid-19th century?
Progress in war technology (invention of revolver, grenade), mass communication and transportation technologies allow ideas to spread more rapidly and allows for individual travel, and the spread of politics within the masses
What is the socialist/anarchist type of terrorism?
Overthrow traditional elites/royalty
What is social exclusion terrorism?
Terrorism against a community.
KKK: created in 1865 after the end of the Civil War, beatings/lynchings/bombings/assassinations, declined after Civil Rights Movement
The Black Hundreds (Russia): 1906- assassinated two Jewish members of the Russian Duma. Pogroms against Jewish communities
What is nationalist terrorism?
Terrorism against colonial governments
What is religious terrorism?
Sikh terrorism against the Indian govenrment, Buddhist violence against the Muslims of Myanmar, and radical Islamism
Why is suicide terrorism so important?
They represent only 3% of the world’s terrorist attacks but 48% of the deaths
What is the profile of suicide terrorists?
Uneducated, unemployed, isolated, single, young, men, but growing diversity
What is the news as contagion theory?
Heavy media coverage increases the likelihood that similar incidents will occur in the period immediately following
Ex: 1972 Olympics, Oklahoma City Bombing
What is the use of social media in terrorism?
Recruitment and radicalization
What is radical Islamism?
Political philosophy that says that, in order to defend a carefully defined vision of Islam and protect pious Muslims around the world, one has to impose, essentially, a 7th century political structure must be implemented by violent Jihad
When/why was radical islamism revived?
European colonialism in the muslim world, 1700
When was the Muslim Brotherhood created and where is it located?
1928, Egypt
What did the Muslim Brotherhood do?
Attacked the Egyptian government, attacked British targets, attacked other symbols of Western presence/culture (cinemas, nightclubs)
What is the legacy of the Muslim Brotherhood?
Hamas emerged from the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood
Why was there a resurgence of radical Islamism post-WWII?
Israel’s creation and expansion, wars of decolonization, and US/Western support to bankrupt Arab dictatorships
What were the two catalyzers of radical Islamism in 1979?
Iran’s Islamic revolution and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan
What was the importance of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (1979-1989)?
Radical muslims traveled to fight jihad in Afghanistan, US supported local Islamic forces to hurt the Soviets, but many would turn on the US in the 90s
What was Bush Jr’s response to 9/11?
Bolster homeland security, military interventions in the Greater Middle East, prevent cooperation between terrorists and rogue states, launch preemptive interventions, and rebuild failed states
Why was the Global War on Terror flawed in conception?
Endless duration (leading to overreach), global geographic scope (leading to overreach), legitimized terrorists, legitimized bin Laden’s narrative about Islam vs Christianity, hurt America’s reputation, wars fueled terrorism, and US entanglement facilitated the rise/resurgence of other powers
What were Obama’s adjustments to the War on Terror?
Left Iraq, refocus on Afghanistan (temporarily), use cheaper tools, scale down the democratization agenda, and refocus on Asia
What do supporters say about Obama’s adjustments in the GWOT?
Ended a costly overreach
What are critiques of Obama’s adjustments in the GWOT?
US withdrawal enabled the breakthrough of ISIS
What was Trump’s approach to the war on terror?
His priority was the Indo-Pacific and criticized US interventions in the greater Middle East, but escalated counterterrorism operations globally
How has the war on terror continued under Biden?
He ended the endless wars, and withdrew from Afghanistan, but the US remains engaged in 11 countries, killed an ISIS leader in Feb. 2022 and killed al-Qaeda’s leader in August 2022
To what extent was the GWOT a disaster?
There was no other 9/11, but thousands of military deaths and wounded, $8T cost for the US, high death tolling the ME, and political radicalization in the US
What is the trend of migration?
Rising migration flows, but it is far from a new phenomenon and remains of a modest scale
What are the causes of forced international migrations?
Slavery, natural disaster, war, persecution, and failing states
What are the two main categories of forced migrants?
Refugees and asylum seekers
What is the difference between a refugee and an asylum seeker?
An asylum seeker is a person who has not been recognized as a refugee
What are the prospects of asylum seekers becoming a refugee?
Depends on various domestic political factors and depend on relations between between the sending and receiving states
Is the majority of free international migrations legal permanent migration or legal temporary migration?
Legal temporary migration
What are the causes of legal temporary migration?
Education, business, employment, tourism, and family reunification
What are the factors that influence the selection of the destination of free migrations?
Local income levels, geographic distance, immigration policies of the country of destination, language, postcolonial link, and presence of a big local diaspora
What are irregular international migrants?
30-50% of all migration flows to the West, smuggling and illegal immigrants
What are some common prejudices against immigrants?
Threat to common history/language/religion/culture, welfare dependent, criminals/terrorists, carriers of infectious diseases
What is some local pushback against immigrants?
Right wing parties, like Neo-nazis in Germany, and the National Rally in France
What are the linkages between immigration and terrorism?
All the perpetrators were temporary or illegal immigrants in the US, Britain gave refugee status to Islamist clerics who were under the threat of Middle eastern regimes
How can refugees be factors of instability?
Refugees can create refugee-warrior communities to fight in their home country and refugees can generate socio-economic-political instability in the receiving state
How can the political activism of diasporas cause problems?
New communication technologies and global media infrastructure, like the Sikh diaspora in the UK and antiwar demonstrations in London before the Iraq War led by the local muslim minority
What is the Homeland Security buildup response to migrants?
Organizational reforms, new screening systems, and intelligence cooperation with other states
What is the extra-border management response to migrants?
Extending immigration management beyond the national territory, British (2022) sending asylum seekers to Rwanda while refugee claims are being processed
How are the current responses to developed countries’ strategic shortsightedness?
refugees
Helping the development of countries of origin would be a bettie long term solution than erecting new barriers. Ex: Africa’s migrants and Europe
How can foreign immigrants lead to enhanced military power?
Technical and intel expertise, scientific expertise, and recruits
How can foreign immigrants lead to enhanced diplomatic power?
Recruit highly skilled immigrants, attract refugees from rival states to hurt their image, and mobilizing diasporas in foreign states to improve one’s image
How has India leveraged its global diaspora?
India wants to create an empire where the sun truly cannot sit, where people live all around the world. PM Modi visited the US, attracting many Indian-Americans and Congressman. This has facilitated US-India strategic rapprochement
How has there been racism in US migration policies?
historically
George Washington was open to all people, but the naturalization act (free white people), Chinese exclusion act (keep out racially inferior people, and 1924 quotas on undesirable European migration
When was the Naturalization Act?
1790
When was the Chinese Exclusion Act?
1882
When was the Immigration and Nationality Act?
1965
How did the Immigration and Nationality Act enhance US national power?
Tripled the share of US population born outside the country, became a major dimension of US-China competition, but tensions remain
What is global warming?
Rise in the world’s temperatures
What is the difference between global warming and climate change?
Climate change is more long-term than global warming. It has a broader scope, includes temperatures but also precipitations, winds, etc.
What is environmental security?
How resource management, conservation techniques, and prevention efforts can preserve the environment
What is the Holocene?
From 9,700 BCE to the present, the epoch is favorable to human rights, with the retreat of the world’s glaciers and stable ecological conditions
What is the Anthrocene?
From about 2011 on, also known as the human age, this is a new concept, not officially acknowledged but increasingly popular. This epoch stresses how the economic activities of countries, companies, and societies impact the environment
What are the mechanisms of global warming?
CO2 emissions in the atmosphere capture solar radiation, with fossil fuels accounting for 80% of global CO2 emissions. Today’s atmospheric concentration is the highest in .8M years
What is a climate tipping point?
A point where climate chaos becomes irreversible
What are some potential tipping points?
The dieback of the Amazon forest, the meltdown of Greenland’s ice core, and the melting of the permafrost
What could the yearly death toll from global warming be?
Currently, about 400,000 deaths globally, could lead to an additional 250,000 deaths per year
How many people die of air pollution daily?
More than 10,000 people die daily because of particles emitted by the burning of fossil fuels
How many people will have food/water scarcity in the future?
Today: 40% of the population struggles with it, and by 2050, an additional 2.3B people
What are the consequences of rising sea levels?
Millions live below annual flood levels, many nations will be exposed to far bigger floods, some nations will be submerged, salt water will contaminate drinking water, and salt water will destroy farmland, leading to food insecurity and more conflicts
What are the consequences of heat and droughts?
Famine, civil war
What happened in 2010 that led to the Arab Spring/Winter?
Russia banned grain exports due to a drought, global grain prices jumped, leading to protests that inaugurated the Arab Spring/Winter
How is the Middle East long-term vulnerability?
They are facing their worst drought in Syria and Iraq, and temperatures could rise up to 7 degrees Celsius
How could there be new/reemerging diseases because of global warming?
Ice me lying bringing back deadly germs to the surface, growing exposure to malaria as mosquitoes move to the North, and more outbreaks of the Ebola virus
What are the projections for forced migrations due to climate change?
216 M to 1.2 B
How will climate change lead to growing conflict among states?
Climate change will aggravate stressors abroad, like poverty, environmental degradation, political instability, and social tensions, which can enable terrorist activity and other forms of violence
What will climate change lead to more geopolitical competition for?
Land, resources, access/passage
How could there be more water conflicts because of climate change?
In the ME and NA, 60% of water resources are shared by at least two states. Ethiopia built a dam for irrigation and power generation on the Nile, leading to less water for Egypt and Sudan
What could happen to the Arctic because of climate change (security consequences)?
Ice could disappear by 2060, leading to geopolitical competition for natural resources, fish, and control of new sea lanes. Russia is assertive on the Arctic coast, and in 2018, China launched the Polar Silk Road
When did climate concerns first arise?
In the late 1960s, there was evidence that industrial production processes, suburban consumption modes of economy, and the output of petroleum regions were the chief cause
When was the Brundtland report and what did it say?
In 1987, it led to the concept of sustainable development: development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs
When was the Rio Summit and what did it say?
1992, clearly linked human activities to global warming
What was the Paris Agreement’s success?
196 countries signed, tried to keep the global rise of temperatures below 2 degrees celsius by 2100, and below 1.5 degrees celsius. It also promised $100B a year for climate solidarity to help poor countries address the effects of global warming
What are the limitations of the Paris agreement?
Each country can determine its own targets, promises are insufficient, and there is no enforcement mechanism
Why might the transition to green energy be close?
International community’s mobilization, the use of coal has decline, and renewable energy prices have fallen
Why might we be able to mitigate the worst aspects of climate change?
Relocation of people and resources, more resistant crops, and stronger defenses
Why might a climate technological breakthrough be in sight?
Artificial intelligence may lead to more sustainable production processes, and geoengineering
What is geoengineering?
Scientific techniques to change weather patterns.
Ex: stratospheric aerosol injection: mimic a volcanic explosion, airplanes could regularly release reflective aerosols
What are the reasons for pessimism in climate change?
The situation is worsening fast, energy hungry capitalist economic model, powerful fossil fuel lobbies, dispersion of causes/consequences of global warming, climate change mitigation may stir conflict
When was the unilateral quarantine regime?
1377-1851: Knowledge gap, no cooperation among political entities, and huge vulnerability
When and what was nascent cooperation among European powers?
1851-1945: Some steps toward coordination in Europe and growing health policies in European colonies
What was the rationale of growing European colonial health policies?
Prevent the spread of pandemics in Europe, protect European troops/administrators in the colonies, optimize local productivity to serve European economies, use medical campaigns as a pretext to tighten social control, and improve the European empires’ reputation against colonialism
When was the Spanish flu?
1918
When was the WHO created?
1948
What happened in the post-WWII era in health?
Recognition of health as a universal right, worldwide progress, great cooperation breakthroughs, and increasingly ambitious US/Western health policies in the Third World
What is the rationale of US/Western health policies in the Third World?
Limit the risk of war, build US/Western strategic influence, assert US/Western moral superiority, the US/West often neglected the areas of lesser strategic relevance, negative impact of US/Western multinationals, and negative impact of US/Western neoliberal policies
What are the features of the global health paradigm?
Globalization, ergo urbanization, travel, global warming, communication technologies and disinformation and Pharma multinationals quest for profits, hence higher exposure to deadly germs, higher infection rates and speeds, and a more complex response mechanisms
How has management of global health played out?
Science, but also a battle for power, prestige, money, and influence
Who is in charge of global health management?
Global organizations? Concert of great powers? Western organizations? Private actors (multinationals, foundations)?
How much do we really know about global health management?
Scientific debates, lobbies, domestic politics, and media hypes
What are the two ways we should approach the concept of health?
- Biomedical approach: scientific research on causes and cures
- Social approach: health as a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity
What is the debate on conducting research on virulent germs?
Need for expertise vs the risk of accident, theft, spreading knowledge to terrorists
Wha is the debate on patents in health?
Corporations need funds to pursue R&D, but they also want to maximize their profits, as shown in the India vs Bayer Inc. fight
How do wars aggravate disease?
Breakdown of healthcare and education systems, sexual violence, and injuries treated with infected blood
How has health and security changed since the 90s?
States have increasingly treated health issues as security threats, as opposed to issues of development
What is the first factor of the securitization of health?
New and resurgent infectious diseases
What are the consequences of new and resurgent infectious diseases for security?
Direct death toll, social disruptions (inequalities, protests, search for scapegoats), and economic decline (money spent to address the crisis, declining productivity, less investments)
What is the second factor of the securitization of health?
Fear of bioterrorism: using pathogens as a weapon of war
What is the third factor of the securitization of health?
Growing concerns about HIV/AIDS
What is the impact of HIV/AIDS on security?
Direct death toll, hurt workers who were at the peak of their productivity, stigma and exclusion from society fueled ethnic/religious tensions, more orphans used by criminal networks and rebel groups, high infectious rates among local troops, international peacekeepers are at risk and spread the disease
When was the US PEPFAR program against HIV/AIDS in Africa?
2003
What were the ambiguities of the PEPFAR program?
Before then the US had done virtually nothing against HIV/AIDS due to indifference before US/Western populations weren’t heavily affected and reluctance of religious groups to help drug users and gay communities. PEPFAR was partially to advance its own interests, through forging counter-terrorism partnerships after 9/11, repair America’s image after the GWOT, promote christian values, support US Pharma, and mobilization declines after fatality rates declined
What is the current toll of COVID 19?
6.6 M dead, 637 M cases, $12.5T in cost
How did COVID 19 have a more devastating impact in the developing world?
Densely populated cities, inadequate public health infrastructures, less effective government lockdowns, no social safety nets, lack of vaccines/medicines/equipment, extreme poverty, pandemic related hunger, and disruption in education
Why do some say it is only a matter of time before we face another pandemic?
Demographic growth, urbanization, and global warming, as well as thousands of unknown viral species
What global cooperation is needed to prepare for the next pandemic?
Effective global surveillance network, a stronger WHO, coordinated decoupling mechanisms, achieve system redundancy, crackdowns on wildlife trade, more generous intellectual property regime, and mutual trust and ability to transcend nationalist visions
What would have happened without the Industrial Revolution?
No British hegemony, no capitalist revolution, no democratization in Europe, no European colonization of other world regions, no world wars, hence everything is a footnote to the Industrial Revolution
When was the telegraph invented and what did it impact?
1870s, replaced horsemen to deliver messages instantly over long distances
What’s an example of mass production of cheap small arms affecting modern arms?
Cheap rifles allowing North Vietnamese troops to resist the US during the Vietnam War
How can technology impact a state’s national power?
Can enhance a state’s economic strength, can enhance a state’s military capabilities, can enhance a state’s foreign political influence, but the tech advancement does not guarantee dominant power
What is China’s tech strategy?
Huge investments in education, 2012: civil military fusion, 2015: made in China 2025, attempts to acquire US/Western tech companies, cyber-industrial espionage targeting US/Western tech companies, and huge government subsidies
What have been US efforts to stem China’s technological rise?
Reduce reliance on Chinese tech that China could allegedly use to spy on the US, protect sensitive American technologies from China, renew US investments in key technologies, and deprive China from the items they need to build new tech
How has the US attempted to protect sensitive American technologies from China?
Screen Chinese investment, monitor China-US academic/scientific partnerships, and controlling US exports
What is the definition of emerging technologies?
Relatively new technologies whose practical applications are not fully realized, or existing tech undergoing significant advances
What does 5G, 6G, and the internet of things lead to?
Hyperconnectivity, currently 10B connected devices, and by 2040, trillions.
What is biotech?
Using a living organism, or parts of an organism, to make or modify products for specific uses
What are biotech techniques?
Nanotech, genetic engineering, etc.
What is quantum computing?
Approach that harnesses some of the almost-mystical phenomena of quantum mechanics to deliver huge leaps forward in processing power
What is Artificial Intelligence?
Constellation of technologies that are helping machines to navigate uncertain and complex environments, make appropriate decisions, and apply those decisions to achieve desired goals, the essence of intelligence
What fields has AI made contributions towards?
Nuclear research, medicine, banking, etc.
How does the US lead in the US-China competition over AI?
Talent, technology, research, and investment
How might China overtake the US in AI competition?
Huge data flows, a more deeply digitized economy, less legal constraints, less ethical constraints, and stronger civil military ties
How has there been a revolution in military affair?
The emergence of technologies so disruptive that they overtake existing military concepts and capabilities and necessitate a rethinking of how, with what, and by whom war is waged
How has biotech been a revolution in military affairs?
New means of biological warfare, enhanced physical and cognitive capabilities for troops, and biometrics for intelligence and targeting
How could quantum computing been a revolution in military affairs?
Ability to locate the enemy’s military assets more easily, and encryption of communications
How can robotics and AI lead to a revolution in military affairs?
Existing assets, current projects (drones), more robots on the battlefield, swarms of robots, optimization of war logistics, more intense shooting patterns, better understanding of the battlefield, and lethal autonomy (in future wars, machines may make life and death decisions)
How is social media instability a risk with emerging technologies?
Increasingly pervasive social media can cause persistent and potentially corrosive social anxiety and political divisions
What is the empowerment of non state actors as a risk?
Drones are cheap, simple to use, transportable, and concealable, ChaptGPT can explain how to blow up a dam
What is the danger of digital technology and surveillance?
It can lead to repression, including in China’s export of smart cities in Pakistan, Philippines, and Kenya
What is the risk of automation?
Job losses, leading to political instability
What is the danger of cyber attacks?
They could trigger nuclear command-and-control systems
What is the risk of AI in politics?
Political manipulation, through deep fake programs that are only getting better
How could autonomous weapons lead to the end of the ethics of war?
Robots could be programmed to wipe out all the males in a city and leave infrastructure
How could AI intentionally lead to the extinction of the human race?
AI systems may try to get more resources, gain efficiency, and resist being turned off. Some believe it is likely a super intelligent AI could lead to human extinction
How could AI unintentionally lead to the extinction of the human race?
AI may achieve more confidence in its calculation if it uses all the world’s computing hardware, and it realizes that releasing a biological super weapon to wipe out humanity would allow it free use of all the hardware
Why is the threat of extinction unlikely to stop AI’s momentum?
Too many scientific debates lead to no consensus to stop, and great power competition creates pressure for AI development
