evidence and judgment

Question 1

what is the system of evidence and judgment?

Answer 1

evidence
info about world that we get from our senses
basic form

->

jugdment
quality of info, evaluation based on evidence

->

decision
change of thought

not certain, probabiliistic

Question 2

quality of info is evaluate by ….

Answer 2

reliability /relevance: some evidence more /less reliable/informative than others

base rate: some things more/less likely than others

utility: some outcomes more consequencial

Question 3

what are the three main fallacies?

Answer 3

base rate fallacy: ignore base rate info , new info taken into account but forget what’s broadly true

conjunction falacy : probs A vs probs A+B( impossible conjunction)
we use representative heuristic

availability heuristic: judgement on likelyhood depending on how easily it comes to mind

Question 4

why does these fallacies/biases occur??

Answer 4

imaginability: how easy it’s to imagine scenario
retrievability: how easy to retrieve relevant instances

Question 5

what does heuristics/ biases tell us about human behavior?

Answer 5

poeple don’t add up evidene but rather use heuristic to make judgment
which lead to irrational behaviour & distort judgement