Evaluating ASEAN's response to the SCS Dispute Flashcards
Overall Verdict
Succeeded: in getting China to participate in multilateral discussions, but no tangible results and could not stop China’s unilateral advances.
Failed:
ASEAN officials have also failed to get China to specify and concretise the claims in the South China Sea — Beijing’s failure to explain the purpose, meaning and nature of the nine undefined dots making up a ‘historical’ claim line on a Chinese map produced in 1947.
ASEAN cannot play the role as a third party mediator as many of its members are involved. Even states like Thailand and Singapore that did not have any claims could not be said to be neutral as they enjoyed close relations with China.
How was ASEAN’s effectiveness in establishing the impetus for conflict-resolution to take place shown?
ASEAN reaffirmed its commitment to the established principles of conflict resolution
1992: Declaration on the South China Sea emphasised necessity to resolve issues surrounding SCS peacefully
Feb 1995: Mischief Reef Incident
Diplomacy via the formal platform of ASEAN in Apr 1995 China-ASEAN SOM and Aug 1995 ARF secured China’s agreement to multilateral talks and reaffirmation of established principles of conflict resolution via peaceful means and self-restraint
How was ASEAN’s effectiveness in bringing the dispute into international limelight shown?
1996: China ratified UNCLOS (albeit opting out of its dispute resolution mechanism)
Forced China to bear a diplomatic cost should it resort to force → ASEAN establishes a limited extent of international deterrence contributing to regional peace
How was ASEAN’s ineffectiveness due to asymmetry of power between China and SEA states shown?
No concrete actions were undertaken to bring tangible results to resolve the SCS dispute
Relative weakness of SEA states → often forced to concede to China who had vastly superior military strength and clout
1995 Mischief Reef Incident: China occupation + addition of structures → ASEAN states unable to respond to the explicit violation of the principle of pacific settlement stated in the 1992 Declaration on the South China Sea
May 1995 (1st) ARF: China prohibited Mischief Reef from being on the ARF agenda → ASEAN states forced to accede to her demands
How was ASEAN’s ineffectiveness because more progress towards dispute resolution was achieved through informal platforms outside of ASEAN shown?
1990-: Informal SCS Workshop by Indonesia allowed regional experts to to express views in ways which cannot prejudice national positions → encouraged consensus among countries for cooperation in SCS
Managed to bring together participants from the entire region including Taiwan which ASEAN could not achieve on its platform due to Chinese resistance
Landmark 1992 Declaration on SCS formulated at the Second Workshop, NOT ASEAN
