Energy security-Theory Flashcards
3 main ways to classify energy
- Renewable
- Non-renewable
- Recyclable resources
Type of energy and issues with coal
-non-renewable
- Releases large amounts of Co2 contributing to
climate change e.g. 2 billion tonnes from USA
plants per year - Carbon capture technology to remove Co2 is
unproven
Type of energy and issues with natural gas
- Non-renewable
- Releases Co2 on use
- Issues of security of supply
Type of energy and issues with nuclear power
- Non-renewable but recyclable
- Health risks and accidents e.g. Chernobyl
- Disposal of radioactive material an issue
Type of energy and issues with oil
- Non-renewable
- Global supplies may have reached their peak
- Release Co2 when burnt
Type of energy and issues with solar
- Renewable
- Availability varies across the globe
- Expensive compared with fossil fuels
Type of energy and issues with Tidal
- Renewable
- Only certain locations suitable
- Technology for large-scale generation unproven
Type of energy and issues with Tidal
- Renewable
- Only certain locations suitable
-Wind energy is variable so hard to manage power
supply
Type of energy and issues with Biomass
-Renewable
-Acts as a carbon sink so combustion releases
carbon dioxide
-Limited potential for large sale generation
Type of energy and issues with Geothermal
- Renewable
- Availability limited to a few locations e.g. Iceland
Type of energy and issues with Hydro-electrcity
- Renewable and recyclable
- Large scale schemes are expensive
- Dam building creates wide scale flooding
The distribution of HEP around the world
China, Canada,Brazil and USA account for 46% of global total
Distribution of coal around the world
-China produced 41.1% of global
coal in 2007
-USA produces 18.7%
Distribution of wind around the world
Germany world
leader at 23.6% Germany, USA and Spain account for
58% globally
Distribution of natural gas around the world
Russia and USA produce 40% of world’s total
Distribution of oil around the world
-In 2007 the Middle East = 30.8% of oil production
-N. America = 16.5%
Saudi Arabia dominates
production
- 12.6% of world’s
total
-Russia accounts for over ½ of
production for Europe and
Eurasia
Physical reasons why energy supply varies across the globe
Deposits of fossil fuels are only found in a limited number of places
- Solar power needs a large number of days a year with strong sunlight
- Large power stations require flat land and stable foundations
Economic reasons why energy supply varies across the globe
- Onshore deposits of oil and gas are cheaper to develop then offshore deposits
- In poor countries foreign direct investment is essential to develop energy resources
- Most accessible and low cost deposits of fossil fuels are developed first
Political reasons why energy supply varies across the globe
-Countries wanting to develop nuclear power need to gain permission from the
International Atomic Energy Agency
-International agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol can influence energy decisions
-HEP schemes on ‘international’ rivers require the agreement of all countries that share
the river
Energy consumption in developing countries
-Most are struggling to pay for their energy
requirements
-Energy demand is influenced by rate of
economic development and rate of population
growth
- In the world 2 billion people lack access to
household electricity
-Traditional biomass in these countries accounts
for 90% of total energy consumption
Energy consumption in MEDCs
-The USA shows huge demands
for energy resources
-Germany and UK have improved
their energy efficiency resulting
in a modest increase in demand
compared with NICs
Energy consumption in NICs
-China accounts for
1/3rd of the growth in
global oil demand
since 2000
-Demand for oil in
China is expected to
rise by 5-7% year
Reasons why energy across the globe has changed over time
Technological developments - nuclear power only been available since 1954
- Increasing national wealth-incomes increase resulting in increasing use of energy
- Changes in demand -Britain’s trains were powered by coal
-Changes in price -Electricity production in UK switched from coal to gas power stations are
they are cheaper to run
-Environmental factors/public opinion-can influence decisions made by governments
Factors that affect energy security
-Physical – exhaustion of reserves or disruption of supply lines
-Environmental – Protests about environmental change caused by exploitation of energy
resources
- Economic – sudden rises in costs of energy forcing increased imports of higher-priced energy
- Geopolitical – political instability in energy-producing regions
What is the energy security index?
-Measures the energy security of a country
What 3 factors in the ESI based on?
- Availability – the amount of a country’s domestic oil and gas supplies and its level of reliance
on imported resources - Diversity – the range of energy resources used
- Intensity – the degree to which the economy of a country is dependent on oil and gas
- The higher the index, the lower the risk and therefore the greater the energy security
Impacts of geopolitics on energy security
Energy security demands on resource availability, both domestic and foreign, and security of supply.
-It can be affected by geopolitics because there is little excess capacity to ease pressure on energy
supplies if supply becomes disrupted.
For example, following the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, the Arab
nations reduced the supply of oil to the USA and Western Europe to reduce their support for Israel– this created a serious energy shortage.
-Since then in 1977 the USA construction a ‘Strategic Petroleum Reserve’ with the initial aim to store
1 billion barrels of oil which could be used in the event of supply issues.
Patterns in energy pathways in oil
has a complex global pattern of PATHWAYS and PLAYERS (exporters and importers).
-The Middle East exports around 15 000 barrels per day, mainly to Japan, Europe and CHINA.
- Substantial amounts flow from Africa, Canada and South and Central America TO the USA.
- Russia supplies some oil to CHINA, but the bulk of its exports now head to Europe.
Patterns in energy pathways in gas
-pathways are different in that they tend to be localised and regional rather than global.
Traditionally gas is transported through pipelines, whereas oil has been transported by ship.
- A possible future is that as movement through pipeline becomes less dependable (for political
reasons) ; there will be a switch towards shipping gas in tankers as LNG.
Physical and human causes of disruption
Long running tensions in the Middle East e.g. destruction of oil wells during Iraq war
consumed 6 million barrels of oil a day for 8 months
-Hurricane Katrina in 2005 affecting oil production and refining in the Gulf of Mexico
causing oil and petrol prices to rise
- In 2005 – explosions and fires at Buncefield Oil Storage Depot destroyed fuel worth £10
million. It supplies Heathrow and as a result had to ration fuel
-2006 and 2008 disputes between Russian and Ukraine disrupted gas supplies to Western Europe.
Why are we uncertain about the future of energy?
- It is hard to predict energy demand as it is strongly affected by economic growth rates, conservation of resources and the pace at which the world can switch to renewable sources of power.
- It is thought that world oil demand will grow by 32% by 2020 and global gas demand by 48%.
- Peak oil: The International Energy Agency predicted peak oil production to occur between 2013 and 2037, whilst USA Geological Survey predicted it is at least 50 years away.
Business as usual projections for 2030
- Global primary energy demand will rise by 53%
- Fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of energy worldwide
- Emissions from electricity generation will account for 44% of energy-related emissions
-Over 70% increase in the energy demand will come from developing countries due to rapid
economic growth and population growth
Nuclear as a possible future
By 2008, 439 nuclear reactors were supplying 15% of the world’s electricity
- Does not produce greenhouse gas emissions
- Uranium is relatively cheap to mine and reserves should last around 150 years
- Very cost effective to transport as only used in small quantities
- Produces 1% of global electricity supply
- 1986 Chernobyl incident highlights the issues
- Very expensive to build – several billion pounds
- Nuclear waste disposal is an issue as it remains radioactive for 10,000 years
Renewable energy (wind power) as a possible future
Costs of generating wind today are about 10% of what they were 20 years ago
- In some areas first generation wind turbines are being replaced with modern turbines which
give better performance - NIMBY – people are concerned that the turbines could blight their homes and views
- Turbines can kill birds
- Suitable areas are often near the coast where land is expensive
Combined heat and power/Green taxation as a possible future
Combined Heat and Power (CHP) power stations waste 65% of the heat they generate but
CHP plants can be up to 95% efficient as they can use different fuels in the same boiler including biomass but also cut emissions and reduce fuel dependency
-b) Green Taxation aimed at cutting the use of natural resources and encouraging recycling. E.g.
road tax increase in 2010 will see 9.4 million motorists pay more road tax aimed to punishing
heaviest polluting cars. The government will receive more that £1billion in additional revenue
What strategies are put into place to meet future needs?
- Emission controls
- Emission trading
- Green taxes
- Offshore wind turbines
- Carbon storage
- Geothermal
- Biofuels-algae
How will emission controls help meet our future needs?
-Kyoto Protocol adopted in 1997 aimed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
-Countries are required to achieve specific reductions in their greenhouse emissions (average of 5%
against 1990 levels by 2012). The USA refused to sign
How will Emissions trading help meet our future needs?
– EU emission Trading Scheme meant that heavy industrial plants have to buy permits to emit greenhouse gases over the limit they are allowed by government.
-Under the Kyoto Protocol carbon emissions are now tracked and traded like a commodity so that any excess reductions
can be sold in the ‘carbon market’
How will green taxes help meet our future needs?
Taxes on individuals for using air transport and pollution charges on companies.
-Other ideas are aimed to reduce energy consumption such as removing stamp duty on carbon neutral homes
How will offshore wind turbines help meet our future needs?
Building offshore costs at least 50% more than on land but wind speeds are
generally double those on land so they can generate more electricity.
How will carbon storage help meet our future needs?
-this involves capturing the carbon dioxide released by burning coal and burying it
deep underground, but it is not proved that the carbon dioxide will actually stay underground and it is
very expensive
How will geothermal energy help meet our future needs?
– In the Philippines 25% of the electricity is generated from underground heat which is
free and available all day. However, the heat is often too deep to be economical.
How will biofuels help meet our future needs?
There are 3 main types; crops e.g. grasses, sugar, trees and algae. Algae are hard to grow but produce oil that requires less refining before it becomes a bio fuel.
Reasons for energy mix
Physical Public Perception Politics Technology Economics Environment
Physical reasons why energy mix
– availability, e.g. North Sea natural gas convenience contributed to a ‘dash for gas’ in the early 1990s
Public perception for reasons why energy mix
– what people think is a huge factor in what resource countries use, e.g. 1950s/1960s nuclear power was perceived as a positive technology, but after the Chernobyl disaster of 1986 the public opinion was swayed and people turned against the development of new nuclear power stations
Politics for energy mix
– what people think is a huge factor in what resource countries use, e.g. 1950s/1960s nuclear power was perceived as a positive technology, but after the Chernobyl disaster of 1986 the public opinion was swayed and people turned against the development of new nuclear power stations
Technology for energy mix
the efficiency and environmental advantages of new technology has seen alternative resources becoming more popular especially in an increasingly environmentally-concerned generation, e.g. solar panels efficiency increased from 5% energy conversion to 40% energy conversion between 1970 and 2008, thus increasing it’s viability
Econmics of energy mix
the cost of energy needs to be tangible, especially for those countries that are relatively energy-poor and need alternative resources in order to develop, also the switch from fossil fuels to renewable alternatives is arguable because the benefits and disadvantages of switching may not weigh up e.g. wind power is becoming increasingly competitive with fossil fuels, in the USA the installed cost is around US$55 per MWh, almost the same as coal and gas
Evironement of energy mix
the ever-growing concerns of the population with the effects of fossil fuels and other resources on the environment has led to changing perceptions and different mixes of energy use in different countries, e.g. the move to renewable resources in the UK with wind generating capacity increased from 500MW in 2001, to 5200MW by 2011
Why continued use of fossil fuels?
- The cost of developing nuclear plants, and the longevity of their construction (up to 10 years to completion)
- The unreliable nature of renewable resources such as wind, is the price, public perception, etc. beneficial enough for a complete change
- The cost and hassle of ‘up-scaling’ projects such as solar power has proven difficult in many countries due to the need for large areas of land and required support
- The emerging economies of China and India both have over 10% of the world’s coal reserves and they are in no rush to switch to alternatives as they demand development like the developed world did: coal power stations can be built cheaply and quickly and are a reliable source of energy for their expanding populations
pirates
Countries being supplied by these routes are increasingly noticing the high risk of energy insecurity from depending on these nations. Oil and gas pipelines, tankers and routes are under constant threat from invasion, vulnerable to attack from terrorists, war and pirates around this region.
Supertankers in particular are vulnerable to the attack from Pirates. Somali Pirates seized the supertanker MV Sirius Star in 2008 from this region and the Straits of Malacca are increasingly becoming piracy hotspots.
These areas, where the energy supplies are under stress and risk from attack, are known as ‘choke points’. There is also an ever-growing concern over the volume of oil that passes through these narrow ‘choke-points’ because of the ease with which these could be disrupted or blocked.
What is a choke point?
a point of congestion or blockage due to unreasonable practices that threaten security and wellbeing of people and the resources in which they’re trying to transport
Issue for energy security
Many countries depend on foreign sources of fossil fuels transported along international energy pathways. The increasing demand and depleting supply of these resources is leading to a greater risk of energy insecurity for many of the dependent nations. Countries need supplies of power in order to maintain the social, political and economic stability of their nation and the security between countries varies hugely. As a result of the increasing risk of energy insecurity for both the present day and inevitably the future, some countries have invested heavily in nuclear power and other alternative resources to reduce dependency on imported fossil fuels. Examples of huge investors into nuclear power are France (86% of energy supply) and Japan (30% of energy supply).
The costs of disruption
The risks of disruption to important energy supply pathways can be seen by examining the past oil prices. Since 1970, the oil price has spiked four times and each time a period of recession has followed.
The problem with high oil prices increasing is the detrimental effect that it has on industry and thus the people. As oil prices increase costs for industry also grow which leads to inflation and rising prices in the public economy. As a result, people spend proportionately more on expensive energy and less on other goods supplied by industries in the country. This, therefore, slows, depresses and can even reverse economic growth. To the developed world in particular, where economic stability and growth is fundamental, high energy prices increase the strains on politics and economics of the country
BP Deep Water Horizin Oil spill
2010 – BP Deep Water Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico illustrated the dangers of exploring for oil at the technological frontier. 11 people were killed when the rig exploded and over 4 million barrels of oil were spilled, causing huge environmental consequences and resentment towards the company for spilling the ‘precious’ oil.
Why are vertically integrated TNC’s criticised?
- Making excessive profits; many are close to being monopoly suppliers in some countries and regions and not allowing other people or companies to develop or compete against them, only the people at the top are winners
- Not investing long term in exploration and refining capacity, so oil gluts (used excessively) quickly resulting in supply shortages
- Damaging sensitive environments and ignoring local people, e.g. Rivers State in Nigeria where Shell has been accused of oil spills, corruption and driving the Ogoni people from their land
GECF
Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) was established in 2001 but is less influential than OPEC. Like oil, there are concerns over the future prices of gas because Iran and Russia may attempt to make GECF into a price-setting cartel for the natural gas resource.
How to ahieve energy secuirty
Diverse energy mix
Cotrol over supplies
political stability in source and demand region
Factors which affect energy security
errorism attacks on infrastructure/ships
Increasing prices e.g. oil crisis
Speculation
Competition from emerging economies
Environmental legislation increasing costs of exploration, transporting and processing.
Political instability of suppliers e.g. Georgia 2008
Increasing length and complexity of pathways
Exhaustion of supplies and peak oil
Uncertainties of fossil fuel demand (economic
this is related to energy demand. Demand for energy was strong between 2002 and 2006 as the world enjoyed an economic boom. Eventually the oil demand outstripped supply, pushing a single barrel of oil to over US$100 by summer 2008. Oil prices then collapsed to US$35 in 2009 but again by 2011 they’re again over US$100. The IMF expects the world’s economy to double in size by 2040, and with richer more economically advantageous economies developing, the demand for a limited supply will increase, potentially raising the price further to unaffordable levels: shortages of oil may spread globally, and hit hard dependent countries. Interestingly, the less developed poorer countries that do not necessarily rely on oil as much may be less affected by the oil price change, as oil has smaller dependability in LICs
Uncertainties of fossil fuel demand (Efficieny
increased efficiency of the thinning resources may lower the demand. High-energy prices between 2006 and 2008 in the UK and Europe encouraged a switch to fuel-efficient cars, public transport and home insulation. If governments and top-down companies encourage meaningful efficiency drive, the savings could be very large
Pop growth uncerrtainties of fossil fuel deman
the uncertainty over the expansion of the population limits the inevitability over the demand of fossil fuels in the future. The UN estimates that the population will exceed 8.5 billion people in 2040 (already hit 7 billion at the end of 2011) – 2 billion more than 2005. The development of these 2 billion extra people will be largely determined by which energy sources they would use. Development in the ‘100 million club’ (BRICs, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Pakistan, Mexico) would increase the demand because of their exponentially growing populations and their equally booming economies
Factors contributing to global energy uncertainty number 1
• Future performance of global economy
• Scale of global population growth
• Impact of rising living standards
• Emergent economies’ energy demands:
o By 2030, total global energy consumption expected to grow by 50% with demand from developing countries surging by 85%
o As the economies of Chindia grow their energy use is predicted double between 2005 and 2030, fuelling their demand for oil and gas and coal
o Electricity generation is expected to nearly double by 2030 fuelled by mainly coal and gas. China accounts for 70% of new consumption
o Nuclear power is expected to increase by nearly 50% most in Chindia
o The largest increase in demand for oil will come from transport as people in Chindia purchase more cars
o The use of renewable energy is expected to increase up to 2030.
Factors contributing to global energy uncertainty number 2
- Possible contribution of ‘unconventional’ oil sources
- Size of undiscovered oil and gas reserves
- The scale of the possible to switch to renewables
- Discovery of new energy technologies
- Growth – the process of globalisation has significantly increased energy demand, particularly in the growing numbers of NICs
- Geology – supply constraints have increased due to the end of the era of ‘easy oil’. In many large oil fields, only the more inaccessible oil is left to exploit
- Geopolitics – production lost in the Iraq War and other disputes has highlighter the vulnerability of energy supplies
- Guerrillas – the actions of guerrilla and terrorist groups have shut down production in Iraq, Nigeria and other countries from time to time. Such actions can create a great deal of uncertainty in the global oil market
- Global warming – significant risks of hurricane disruption, rising environmental compliance costs and a growing regulatory consensus on climate change have made global warming a major energy issue
Impacts of peak oil
- Economic growth has always depended on growing supply of oil
- After the peak, many forecasters expect global production to fall by about 3% a year
- This means with growing oil demand, the deficit between oil we want and the oil we get will expand by more than 4% a year
- Within 10 years, we could have about half the oil supply required to sustain economic growth
- This is likely to lead to large spikes in the price of oil, causing deepening recessions
business as usual impacts
- Burning fossil fuels will drive climate change
- The Stern Review estimated that under the business as usual model climate change would cost the world 5-20% of the global GDP, whereas efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions and the impacts of global warming would cost just 1% of the global GDP
- 2-3ºC rise in temperature could reduce global economic output by 3% - by reducing crop yields for example
- 5ºC rise could reduce global output by 10% with the poorest countries losing more than 10% because they lack the income to paying for coping strategies
What are carrot and stick technologies
Measures to encourage a reduction in energy consumption and an increase in energy efficiency
Offshore wind turbines radcal tech
Building wind turbines offshore cost at least 50% more than on land
Ministry of Defence in UK says that they could interfere with radar and pose a threat to national security
Offshore turbines are less visible and audible
Wind speeds at sea are generally double those on land, so offshore turbines generate more electricity.
Sustainable
Carbon storage radical technologies
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) involves capturing CO2 released by burning coal and burying it deep underground.
This allows clean electricity to be produced from coal. This is beneficial as coal is cheap, abundance and often locally sourced, making it an attractive commodity so its unlikely to go away.
sustainable
No one knows whether CCS will really work or whether CO2 will stay trapped underground
It is expensive
Geothermal energy
Electricity generated from underground heat. Heat is used to turn water into steam which generated electricity in turbines.
Renewable
Sustainable
Free
Inexhaustible
Available day and night due to local geology
No need to cover land surface
Many parts of the world (USA, Iceland, south Australia) have the hot rocks that make recoverable heat possible
Extracting subterranean heat is not easy
In many locations heat is too deep to extract economically
Local geology can create problems e.g. impermeable nature of granite or other igneous rocks makes it technically difficult and expensive to extract the heat
Nclear power
Costs associated with safety, security, insurance, liability in case of accident/attack, waste management, construction and decommissioning are rising rapidly, whereas the cost of solar and wind power is falling
Nuclear waste disposal is an unsolved problem (remains radioactive for 10,000 years) and no safe containment has been devised yet
Risk of nuclear weapons proliferation
Mining, extracting, processing and transporting nuclear fuel produces carbon emissions at every stage
Any investment in nuclear power is money denied to developing and promoting renewable energy and energy efficiency
UK should maintain the 20% of its electricity generation by nuclear power that otherwise would be lost when old nuclear power stations are decommissioned
biofuels radical tech
Three main types of biofuel:
• Crops
• Trees
Grasses and trees need a lot of processing
The whole of their biomass is converted into fuel – mostly ethanol
• Algae
Trickier to grow
Produce oil that requires less refining before it becomes useful biodiesel
Challenges that must be overcome in order to improve efficiency and acceptability of biofuel industry:
New reengineered crops need to be developed, tailored specifically for fuel rather than food production
Supply chair for biofuels can be costly, making them uncompetitive with fossil fuels
Range of small and large scale bio refineries is needed to improve logistics within the supply chain
Competition between food crops and biofuel crops for agricultural space needs to be address, especially where it encourages large-scale deforestation (e.g. Brazil) and food shortages.
Most feasible out of the five energies but sustainability is questioned in terms of its impact on environment and human well being
