Electoral Systems Flashcards
What are the purpose of elections?
• Gives legitimacy to the new leader
• Gives them a mandate to carry out their manifesto
Can hold the government to account for their time in office
What is a by-election?
If a seat becomes vacant due to the death or resignation of an MP an election in that constituency is held
What types of elections are there in the UK?
• General elections
• By-elections
• Local elections
• Devolved assembly elections
• European Parliamentary elections (previously)
What is a majoritarian system?
In an election the winner must get an absolute majority (>50%)
What is a plurality system?
The winner of an election is the person who gets more votes than any other candidate
Is there a majoritarian or plurality system in the UK?
Plurality - MPs do not need to get over 50% of the vote to be elected
Where is First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) used in the UK?
General elections
Features of First-Past-The-Post (FPTP)
• Plurality system
• Single-member constituencies
• Disproportional outcome
Where is Supplementary Vote (SV) used in the UK?
London Mayoral elections
Features of Supplementary Vote (SV)
• Majoritarian system
• Voters give 1st and 2nd preference
• Winning candidate has at least 50% of the vote (including 2nd choice votes if necessary)
In what elections has List PR been used?
European parliament elections
Features of List PR
• Proportional system
• Multi-member constituencies
• Vote for a party, not a candidate
Where is Single Transferable Vote (STV) used in the UK?
Northern Ireland elections
Features of Single Transferable Vote (STV)
• Proportional system
• Rank candidates
• Multi-member constituencies
• Proportional outcome
Where is Additional Member System (AMS)
used in the UK?
Scottish Parliament
Additional Member System (AMS) is a mix of which two other electoral systems?
EPTP and List PR
Example of FPTP producing a very disproportionate outcome
In 2015, in Belfast South, the SDP candidate was elected with only 24.5% of the vote
What is the average constituency size in the
UK?
68,000
What is a safe seat?
A constituency where the incumbent party has a large majority
What was the safest seat in the 2015 general election?
Walton in Liverpool
Labour candidate won 81% of the vote
What is a marginal seat?
One where the two main parties often compete at elections and it is often unclear whether a party will be re-elected
Why is turnout often higher in marginal seats?
The votes are more likely to make a difference to the result
What was the most marginal seat in the 2015 general election?
Gower, where the Conservatives beat Labour by 27 votes
How often are the size of constituencies
reviewed?
Every 8-12 years
How does UKIP’s result in 2015 show the
weaknesses of FPTP?
They received 12.4% of the vote, but only picked up 1 seat
What percentage of the vote did the two main parties receive in 2010?
65%
What is a winner’s bonus?
The excess proportion of seats a party wins compared to the proportion of votes they receive
Vote share of the Conservatives in 2015 vs the proportion of seats they won
Vote share - 37%
Proportion of seats - 51%
Vote share of the Conservatives in 2015 vs the proportion of seats they won
Vote share - 37%
Proportion of seats - 51%
What is tactical voting?
Voting for a party who you may not 100% support to ensure another party is not elected
E.g. voting Labour to ensure that the Conservatives are not elected, even though you may support the Greens
What is a minority government?
When the governing party does not have a majority of seats in parliament, meaning they have to form deals with other parties to pass legislation
What is a coalition government?
A government consisting of two or more parties which share policies and ministerial posts
Advantages of FPTP
• Simplicity
• Clear outcome
• Strong majority government
• One representative per constituency
• Keeps out extremist parties
How is FPTP simple for voters?
Voters only need to cast one vote for their preferred party
Disadvantages of FPTP
• Disproportionate outcome
• Plurality system
• Limited choice
• Safe seats make votes have unequal value
How many times has the winner of the popular vote lost the general election?
Twice, 1951 and 1974
Example of List PR giving a proportional outcome in the 2019
European election
The Brexit Party won 39% of the vote and got
40% of the seats
Why should FPTP be replaced?
• Other systems such as STV and List PR better represent vote
share
• The party with most votes does not always get most seats
• Winner’s bonus
• MPs are rarely elected with a majority of their constituency vote
What factors influence why someone votes for a party?
• Personality of candidate
• Attractiveness of policies
• Electoral system in place
• Individual characteristics (age, gender)
• Success of campaign
What is the primacy model?
Suggests people vote based on long-term factors like age, class and gender
What is the recency model?
Suggests people vote based on short-term factors such as current issues and leadership
What is class dealignment?
Where people no longer vote based on their social class
What is a swing voter?
A voter who is not loyal to one party and is therefore more open to political campaigning
What is partisan dealignment?
Where people feel as though no single party truly represents them
What have been the four main changes in voting behaviour?
• Class dealignment
• Partisan dealignment
• More swing voters
• Rise of identity politics
What was the age at which someone was more likely to vote
Conservative in the 2019 election?
39
What % of 18-24 year olds voted Labour and
Conservative?
Labour - 56%
Conservatives - 21%
What % of 70+ year olds voted Labour and
Conservative?
Labour - 14%
Conservatives - 67%
Context of the 1983 election
• Rising unemployment (over 3m)
• Military victory over Argentina in the 1982 Falklands War
What was the swing from Labour to
Conservatives in 1983
3.8%
What was the impact of the SDP on the 1983 election
• Took many of Labour’s votes
• This resulted in Labour coming third - or worse - in 292 out of 650 constituencies
Vote share of the 3 main parties in the 1983 election
CON -42.4%
LAB - 27.6%
SDP - 25.4%
How did newspapers influence the 1983 election?
The Sun instructed voters to ‘Vote for Maggie’. They were the paper with the highest circulation
• Only 22% of newspapers in circulation supported Labour
Policies of Labour in the 1983 election
• Seen as too left wing for the general public
• Abolition of Hol
• Unilateral nuclear disarmerment
• Withdrawal from European Community
Policies of Conservatives in 1983 election
• Reduction in trade union power
• Expansion of privatisation
How did Thatcher campaign effectively in the 1983 election?
• Thatcher travelled on her ‘Superbus’ to key constituencies
• Focus on TV appearances
Which war helped boost Thatcher’s popularity?
Falklands War
Which new party broke away from Labour in
1983?
SDP-Liberal Alliance
What was the name of Thatcher’s documentary about her premiership, published 4 months before the 1983 election?
The Woman at Number Ten
How did the Conservative win in 1983 affect policy-making?
• Further privatisation
• Reduction in trade union power
• Restructured UK economy
What proportion of the votes did the SDP-
Liberal Alliance win in 1983?
25% - just two points below Labour
Only won 23 seats (3.5%)
Key conclusions from 1983 election
• FPTP gave very disproportionate result
• Thatcher as a leader managed to successfully promote her radical policies while Foot failed
• The left-wing vote split between two parties
Context of 1997 election
• Major was running a minority government
• Conservatives deeply divided over Europe
• Conservatives overseen 1992 recession
• Labour had made gains in the ‘87 and ‘92 elections
How did Labour reinvent themselves for the 1997 election?
• Rewrote Clause IV, changing the commitment to nationalisation
• Emphasis on ‘third way’, accepting capitalism
Vote share for three main parties in 1997
Labour: 43.2%
Conservatives: 30.7%
Lib Dems: 16.8%
Number of seats for three main parties in
1997
Labour: 418
Conservatives: 165
Lib Dems: 46
Which areas did the Conservatives do particularly badly in 1997?
London - vote share fell by 14%
South East - vote share fell by 13%
How does the 1997 election show class dealignment?
Labour picked up the same percentage of votes in the C1 class as the Conservatives (lower-middle-class)
Which newspaper switched to supporting
Labour in 1997?
The Sun
What percentage of newspapers were pro-
Blair in 1997?
62%
Policies of Labour in 1997
• Moderate expansion of Welfare State with emphasis on personal responsibility
• Tough on crime
• Balance government spending
Policies of Conservatives in 1997
• Not too dissimilar from Labour
• Tax reduction
• Tough on crime
• Crackdown on benefit fraud
Which key Labour figure helped to secure the working class vote in 1997?
While Blair appealed to the middle classes, John Prescott (deputy leader) hailed from a working class background
What was the Conservatives’ election strategy in 1997?
Focused on attacking Blair as Major was not seen as a strong enough leader to directly promote
|Poster of Tony Blair with devil eyes, captioned “New Labour New Danger”
How did the 1997 Labour victory affect policy making?
• Constitutional reform
• Socialist changes such as introducing minimum wage
Key conclusions of the 1997 election
• Labour reinvented themselves as a modern party
• Blair seen as a more charismatic leader than Major
• Shows importance of the middle-class vote in determining election outcome
What is the purpose of an election?
To
• select representatives to best reflect the interests of the constituency and the individual
• deliver verdict on performance of past government
• decide which government programme the electorate support based on their manifestos
• decide which leader will become PM
• grant authority to whichever party wins election, giving them the political mandate to govern
What is a manifesto?
A statement of commitments made by a party that they would uphold/enact should they be elected to government
Define the phrases ‘electoral mandate’
When authority is granted to a party to
• put into place policies from their manifesto (doctrine of mandate and manifesto)
• carry out actions that promote security and welfare in response to unexpected events (doctors mandate)
2017 General election
Party - Conservatives
Give the
• change in the number of MPs
• change in % of vote
• Potential reasons for these changes
Tory 2017 General election results
• 317 seats (48.8% of HoC), -13
• Votes +5.5% to 42.3%
• Reasons for
- Vote gain: Theresa may seen as more responsible to be in charger (doctors madate)
- Seat lost: Rise in labour votes, marginal seats lost
2017 General election
Party - Labour
Give the
• change in the number of MPs
• change in % of vote
• Potential reasons for these changes
Labour 2017 General election results
• 262 seats (40.3% of HoC), +30 seats
• Votes +9.4% to 42.3%
• Reasons for better result than 2015: increased youth vote, comment on past 7 years of government, distrust of Theresa May, ideology shift, UKIP no longer relevant, NP call for another Scottish Referendum
2017 General election
Party - Scottish National Party
Give the
• change in the number of MPs
• change in % of vote
• Potential reasons for these changes
SNP 2017 General election results
• 35 seats (5.4% of HoC), -21 seats
• Votes -1.7% to 3%
• Reasons for worse result than 2015: talk of 2nd Scottish referendum, started with high % of Scotland (95%), leave voters voted Tory, Labour shifted more left again
2017 General election
Party - Liberal Democrats
Give the
• change in the number of MPs
• change in % of vote
• Potential reasons for these changes
Lib Dem 2017 General election results
• 12 seats (1.8% of HoC), +4 seats
• Votes - 0.5% to 7.4%
• Reasons for result: verdict on coalition, Tim Farron on gay rights, tactical votes in marginal seats to get Labour in power
2017 General election
Party - UK Independence Party
Give the
• change in the number of MPs
• change in % of vote
• Potential reasons for these changes
UKIP 2017 General election results
• O seats (0% of HoC), -1 seat
• Votes - 10.8% to 1.8%
• Reasons for result: no longer relevant after the EU referendum due to it being their only clear policy
2017 General election
Party - Green Party of England and Wales
Give the
• change in the number of MPs
• change in % of vote
• Potential reasons for these changes
Green 2017 General election results
• 1 seat (0% of HoC), no seat change
• Votes -2% to 1.6%
• Reasons for result: still seen as single issue, not large enough infrastructure for national competition, strategic voting to get
Labour into power
What are the three types of voting system?
• Plurality
•Majority
• Proportional representation
What does a plurality voting system work around?
One candidate having more votes than any other but not necessarily 50%
What are the basic rules of First Past the
Post (FPTP)?
• Each constituency returns 1 MP
• Each party nominates one candidate to stand in each constituency
• Voters only have one vote
Give advantages of the FPTP system
• Speedy and simple - single cross ballot, quick transfer of power compared to nations such as Germany and Belgium (18 months in 2010) that use P.R
• Strong and stable government - promotes a clear majority in power e.g. Thatcher allowed to reduce Trade Unions and Blair to make constitutional reform in 1997 due to large mandates
• Excludes extremist parties - e.g. UKIP, right wing, got 3.9 million votes in 2015 but only 1 seat
• Strong link between MPs and constituency - small sized constituencies creates stronger link e.g. surgeries (Catherine
West’s on Friday) and easier to lobby (writing letters)
Give disadvantages of the FPTP system
MPs and government can be elected on less than 50% of the vote - e.g. current government got 42% of the vote yet has control of nation that 58% of people did not vote for —> governments that don’t have popularity vote and thus weakens their political mandate
• Lack of proportionality - despite keeping out extreme parties such as UKIP it ignores the vote of 12.9% of electorate
• Limited voter choice - no variation of spectrum within parties e.g. New Labour v Corbyn Labour, ONCs v Thatcherites
• Votes are of unequal value - small constituencies have votes worth more e.g. 9407 voters in Burkley and 28,591 for Isles of Whight, Electoral Reform Society calculated 74.4% of votes in 2015 were wasted
How does a majority voting system work?
They are designed to ensure the winner receives the majority of the votes
Give an example of a majority system being used in Europe?
The French Presidential vote
• Uses two lots of FPTP, if in the first round someone gains more than 50% they win, if not the top two go through to a second vote where one is guaranteed to get over 50%
Why do elections with multiple candidates not usually use majority systems?
They rarely produce absolute majorities of
50%
Name the majority system used in the UK
Supplementary vote
How does the supplementary vote work?
• 1 round of voting
• Marking a 1st and 2nd preference
• 2 rounds of counting - of no candidate is elected on 50% the 2nd preference of all the voters who didn’t vote for the front runners are added
• Used for the London Mayoral elections and Police and Crime
Commissioners in England and Wales
What are advantages of the supplementary vote?
• Absolute majority guaranteed
• Shows broad support for the winner - have to be liked/wanted from a broad consensus (Sadiq Khan, largest political mandate in UK history)
• Simple and straightforward to use
• Has allowed some independent candidates to win (12/40 PCS in 2012)
What are the disadvantage of of the supplementary vote?
• Anyone whose second preference who isn’t one of the two front runners doesn’t have their votes counted at all
• Not proportional as an individual is being elected to office
• A second-placed candidate can win
• Promotes two-party system and disadvantage smaller parties, less representative than FPTP eg London Mayor vote always ends up with Labour v Conservative, Sian Berry of Green Party in 2016 eliminated after first round
What is proportional representation?
It is technically not a voting system but an adaptation of systems that best link the proportion of votes to the proportion of seat in an election
What two proportional representational systems are used in the UK?
• Single Transferable Vote - used in N.I Parliament and Scottish local council elections
• AMS - used in European Parliament, Greater London Assembly, Welsh Assembly, Scottish Parliament. Combines
FPTP and the d’Hondt PR system of vote allocation
How does STV work?
• Vote once
• Candidates ranked by each voter 1 - x (× being the number of candidates running) as they see fit to
• Each constituency elects multiple candidates
Describe the benefits of STV
• Proportional outcome - N.I assembly 5 of votes almost perfectly match seat no. in 2017 election
• Votes have equal value
• Government is still likely to be backed by 50% of the electorate
• Wide degree of party choice and variety within party candidates - eg New Labour vs Socialist Labour
• Few votes wasted
Describe the disadvantages of STV
• MP-constituency link lost
• Complicated, people accidentally spoil ballots
• Multi-party coalition governments = weak and unstable
• III-informed dinkey voting
• 5th/6th vote choice isn’t really worthwhile
How does AMS work?
• Candidates elect two people - one elects a candidate whilst the other votes for a party
• Candidate votes are announced (the FPTP element of the vote) and then based on the % of votes the party gets, members are added to ‘top up’ the house to ensure a proportional element to the vote
The strengths of AMS are…
• Best bits of FPTP - rep link to area, likelihood of stable govt = high
• Adds element of PR so votes = seats more directly
• Greater choice of candidate and can split ticket
• Party-list can be seen to encourage greater women and BAME reps - eg
The weaknesses of AMS are…
• Two categories of reps with different degrees of accountability
Low level of additional members means PR isn’t strong
• Most voters don’t split tickets -eg Labour and Tories dominated candidate elections and then gained most no of Add. Members in
London Assembly 2016
• Strong governments hard to achieve - eg Scottish Assembly currently running on a 62 minority to SNP with 66 seats in opposition
• Usually, a single party dominates process - eg Labour in the Greater London Assembly, SP in Scotland
What are the functions of elections?
Representation
Choosing a government
Holding government to account
Encourage participation
Give people influence over policy
What is the criteria for deciding which is the best electoral system?
Which:
Gives a fair result as far as possible
Gives a choice of candidates
Has an effective link between the elected representative and the constituency
Gives a strong govt. that can pass laws but can be held accountable by electorate
What are the sizes of constituencies regulated by?
Regulated by an independent Boundary Commission which recommends periodic changes based on movements of population
How many constituencies are there in the UK?
650
Advantages of FPTP: Speed and simplicity
V. easy to use, result usually known morning after polling day and new govt. rapidly formed
Advantages of FPTP: Strong and stable government
Tends to promote two-party system, giving voters clear choice and majority and can be removed at next general election, occasionally produces coalition govts. but normally produces a clear majority
Advantages of FPTP: Exclusion of extremists
Although there’s a lack of representation of smaller parties, this is good when these parties are extremists as they are much less likely to gain a foothold
Advantages of FPTP: Strong link between
MPs and they constituencies
Most constituencies are small and a single MP is responsible for them and hold surgeries
Disadvantages of FPTP: MPs and governments can be elected on less than 50% of the vote
More than 1/2 of MPs typically don’t receive majority vote, just at least 1 more than the second place candidate
Disadvantages of FPTP: Lack of proportionality
It exaggerates the results and doesn’t reflect that the no. of ppl voting for the two largest parties are in decline
Disadvantages of FPTP: Winner’s bonus
Winning party gets a share of seats in excess to amount of votes it receives if a larger no. of seats are marginal between the two main parties
Disadvantages of FPTP: Limited voter choice
Party only puts 1 candidate forward so no representation of different views within a party