Demographic Analysis Flashcards
From the Greek language, ___ means description of people.
* scientific study of human population primarily with respect to size,
structure and development.
* concerned with current size and characteristics of human population,
how they were attainted and how they are changing.
DEMOGRAPHY
represents the
starting point for planning at
all scales
Demography or population
studies
Provides guidelines for deciding
total land requirements and the
basis of land between various
competing land uses
Demography or population studies
refers to the total number of individuals in a territory at a specified time.
POPULATION
basis for determining
whether the level of public services like
schools, health centers, recreational facilities,
Population
dictates the policy for most of
the human settlements needs
Population make-up and distribution
- Generates relevant population data in a specific area
- Involves the determination of present trends governing changes
in population statistics as well as future population shifts in a
given area - Can readily be accessed from the National Census conducted
nationwide at regular five-year intervals
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
In undertaking demographic analysis, three aspects of the population must be
studied:
- Size
- Distribution
- Characteristics
Fundamental Demographic Methods
Treat the population as a whole
without disaggregation with
respect to age, sex or other
characteristics.
Trend Models
Fundamental Demographic Methods
Treat a given population as an
aggregate of the various groups, and
the evolution of the population
results (in part) from the interaction
of these groups
Composition Models
Methods of Population
Projection
Uses mathematical formulae
Mathematical Method
Methods of Population
Projection
Projects future population
based on economic conditions
Economic Method
Methods of Population
Projection
Projects population by demographic
components
Component or Cohort-Survival
Method
SOURCES OF POPULATION CHANGE
1.Fertility
2.Mortality
3.Migration
refers to the live births that occur within a
population.
FERTILITY
refers to the number of births divided by the midyear population, usually expressed in terms of thousands. It is the simplest and most commonly used index of fertility.
Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) formula
CBR = (B/P)* 1000
B = no of births in given year
P = total mid yr popu of same year
Total Mid-year Population (July 1)
Pt = Po (1 + r/100)t *small t
P2021 = P2020 (1+ r/100) *small 0.5
Where:
Po = pop at an earlier period
Pt = unknown pop or to be estimated
1.0 = constant
r = annual population growth rate
t = time interval between Po and Pt
refers to the occurrence of deaths in a population.
MORTALITY
is a rough measure of mortality. It refers to the number of deaths per 1,000 population.
Crude Death Rate (CDR)
Crude Death Rate (CDR) formula
CDR= (D/P) * 1000
Rate of population increase in a given period
due to births and deaths
Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)
Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) formula
RNI = (CBR - CDR)
Geographic movement of people across a specified
boundary for the purpose of establishing a new
permanent or semi-permanent residence
MIGRATION
The number of immigrants arriving at a destination per 1,000
population at that destination in a given year.
Immigration Rate
Immigration Rate formula
IR = Number of immig/ total popu at destination * 1000
unit = answ per 1000 residents
The number of emigrants departing an area of origin per 1,000
population at that area of origin in a given year.
Emigration Rate
Emigration Rate formula
ER = # of emig/ total popu of origin * 1000
unit = answ per 1000 residents
- Shows the net effect of immigration and emigration in an area’s
population expressed as “>” or “<“ per 1,000 population of an
area in a given year. - Shows the net difference between the numbers of persons
entering a geographic area (Immigrants) and those leaving the
area (Emigrants) per 1,000 population of an area in a given year.
NMR= # of immigrants - # of emigrants/ total pop 1000
NMR = IR-ER1000
The balance among fertility, mortality and migration determines
whether a population increases, remains stationary, or decreases in
number.
POPULATION DYNAMICS
The relation between births and deaths is referred to
Natural
Population Increase (Natural Population Growth).
When the net effect of migration is added to natural increase, this
referred to
Total Natural Increase (Total Growth).
COMPUTING POPULATION GROWTH RATES
1.Arithmetic
2.Geometric
3.Exponential
COMPUTING POPULATION GROWTH RATES
Assumes that there are linear increases or
decreases in population
ARITHMETIC CHANGE
ARITHMETIC CHANGE formula
r= Pt-Po/ t (Po)*k
Assumes that the population changes at a rate where the increments or decreases are compounded over a specified period
GEOMETRIC CHANGE
GEOMETRIC CHANGE formula
r= antilog log Pt/Po / t -1*k
Pt = Po (1+r/100( *small t
Example:
Pt = Population on Sept. 1, 1995 = 68,616,536
Po = Population on May 1, 1990 = 60,703,206
t = 5.33
r = ?
k = 100
Assumes an instantaneous growth rate
EXPONENTIAL CHANGE
Refers to the length of time a particular
population would double its size under a given growth rate
DOUBLING TIME
POPULATION PROJECTIONS
This guide suggests the combined use of
GEOMETRIC and PARTICIPATION RATE.
This method simply uses ratio or
percent share of a particular segment
of population to total population
using actual/latest census data.
Population per barangay
Dependent population
Labor force population
Population per age group
PARTICIPATION RATE METHOD (PR)
Projection required is yearly for the
first 5 years and 5 years thereafter.
City/Municipal Population Projection
Participation Rate (PR) formula
PR = Po (base pop of city/municipality)/ Po (base popn of province)
Use the Geometric formula to get the Growth Rate (r)
using the two latest census. And use it to project the
whole planning period.
* Growth Rate (r) – 2010 and 2015
* Project 2018-2028 (using derived r)
Alternative method:
It refers to the composition of the population in terms of age, sex, marital status and other characteristics of the population.
Population Characteristics
simply the number of males per 100
females in a population.
Sex Ratio
Sex Ratio formula
SR=M/F *100
The ratio of the population in the dependent ages of 0-14 years and
65 years and over to the population in the working ages 15-64 years.
Age Dependency Ratio
(below 15 years old)
Young Dependency Ratio
(65 years old and
above)
Old Age Dependency Ratio
(below 15 years + 65 years old and
above)
Age Dependency Ratio
refers to the population 15 years old and over who contribute
to the production of goods and services in the country.
Labor Force
proportion of the total number of persons in
the labor force to the total population 15 years old and over.
Labor Force Participation Rate
- includes all persons who are 15 years old and over as of their last birthday and are
reported as:
i. without work, i.e., had no job or business during the basic survey reference
period; and
i. currently available for work, i.e., were available and willing to take up work in
paid employment or self employment during the basic survey reference period,
and/or would be available and willing to take up work in paid employment or
self employment within two weeks after the interview date; and,
iii. seeking work, i.e., had taken specific steps to look for a job or establish a
business during the basic survey reference period; OR not seeking work due to the
following reasons: (a) tired/believe no work available, i.e, the discouraged workers
who looked for work within the last six months prior to the interview date; (b)
awaiting results of previous job applications; (c) temporary illness/disability; (d) bad
weather; and (e) waiting for rehire/job recall.
Unemployed
the proportion of total number of employed persons
to the total number of persons in the labor force
Employment Rate
Singulate Mean Age at
Marriage (SMAM)
MARITAL STATUS
the
average length of single life expressed in years among
those who marry before age 50.
singulate mean age at marriage (SMAM)
- derived from a set of percent
singles at all ages - It denotes the number of years that a
married individual spends in singlehood
before ultimately marrying.
Singulate Mean Age at Marriage(SMAM)
graphical
presentation of the population. It
consists of bars: the height represents
the age groups while the length
represents the absolute population, or
percent of the population in each age
group. The sum of the bars is equal to
the total population or 100% of the
population. The graph usually depicts
the male and female populations
separately.
population pyramid
Three General Types of Population Pyramids
- Expansive
- Constrictive
- Stationary
has a broad base that indicates high
fertility.
expansive pyramid
has a base that is narrower than
the middle of the pyramid. It indicates moderate population
growth.
constrictive pyramid
has a base which is approximately equal to
each subsequent age group, tapering at older ages. It indicates a moderate
proportion of the children, a relatively large proportion of persons in the old
ages and a low population growth.
stationary type of pyramid
Indicated by a pyramid with a large percentage of people in the
younger ages.
Rapid Growth
Reflected by a pyramid with a smaller proportion of the
population in the younger ages.
Slow Growth
Populations are shown by roughly equal numbers of people in
all age ranges, tapering off gradually at the older ages.
Zero or Declining Growth
expressed as the number of
persons per unit of land area, usually in hectares or square
kilometers.
Measures of Urbanization
Gross Population Density
the ratio of population to the total area of
arable land. An arable land, for convenience, is defined as the total land
area of lands classified as “alienable and disposable
Measures of Urbanization
Net Population Density
also used in reclassifying the PSA population groupings into the desired schoolgoing age population group
Measurement of School-Going Age Population
(6-21 years old)
Interpolation Technique
School-going age population:
- Primary – 7 to 12 years old
- Junior HS – 13 to 16 years old
- Senior HS – 17 to 18 years old
- Tertiary – 19 to 22 years old
Housing Need
Projected Housing need = New Household + Service Backlog
- Doubled – Up (DUHH) = No. of Households (HH) – No. of Housing Units (HU)
- Unacceptable Housing Units = 5% of HU made of mixed materials
- Mixed Materials = HU with walls and roof made of wood, cogon/Nipa/ Anahaw, asbestos and
others (PSA data on Occupied HU by construction materials) - Makeshift / Salvage / Improvised HU (per PSA data)
- Others
- Day Care Center
- Senior Citizen Care Center
- Day Center for Street Children
- Temporary Shelter for Women
- Reception and Study Center
- Family Life Resource Center
- Early Childhood Development Resource Center
Tool 1:
Inventory and Assessment of Social Welfare Facilities
Projected Population (below poverty line) = 16,000
Current Clientele (DSWD Survey) = 2,000
Current Population (below poverty line) = 15,000
Projected Clientele = Projected x Current Clientele /
Current Population
Tool 2:
Clientele Projection of Social Welfare
- Police/Firemen
- Type of Barangay Brigades (disaster, tanod, and traffic auxilliary)
- Police and Fire Facilities
- Number and Location of Police/Fire Station and Jails
- Fire Incidence
Protective Services
Tool 1:
Inventory and Assessment Related to
Peace and Order Condition
Police Force = Size of Police Force /
Total Population
Ideal: 1 policeman:500 persons
Minimum Standard PPR = 1:1,000
Tool 2:
Determination of Police Force
Tool 3:
Determination of Fireman-Population Ratio
Fireman- Population Ratio = No. of Fireman /
Total Population
City/Large Municipalities – 1 Fireman: 2,000 people
PNP standard – 1:500
a. Population Demand = Population X Standard Ratio
for Policemen
PDP = 60,000 X 1/500 = 120 policemen
Population Demand for Policemen
b. Current Police = Total Population Demand -
Force Requirement Actual No. of Police
Force
CPF = 120 – 20 = 100 policemen
Population Demand for Policemen
Tool 4: Determining Future Requirement
a. Population Demand = Population X Standard Ratio
for Fireman
PDP = 60,000 X 1/500
= 120 firemen
b. Current Firemen
Requirement
= Total Population Demand -
Actual No. of Firemen
= 120 – 20 = 100 firemen
Tool 4: Determining Future Requirement
PPF = Projected Population Standard Number of Police
/ Force to Population Ratio
Projection of Police Force Requirement
