Democratic peace hypothesis

Question 1

What is the democratic peace hypothesis?

Answer 1

Also known as the Clinton/Bush/Obama Hypothesis, it posits that democratic states are less likely to go to war with each other.

Question 2

What is democracy?

Answer 2

a political system in which leaders are voted into office through regular and fair elections in which a sizable portion of the population vote.

Question 3

What is shared democracy?

Answer 3

A situation in which both states are democratic

Question 4

What is war? (be thorough)

Answer 4

War is an event involving the organized* use of military force by at least two parties* that reaches a minimum threshold* of severity.

• Organized: not spontaneous or disorganized (eg; riots)
• At least two parties: not repression or genocide
• Minimum threshold: At least 1,000 battle deaths

Question 5

Explain a mechanism behind the democratic peace hypothesis (1)

Answer 5

Mechanism 1: Democracies raise war costs

• In a democracy, voters can punish leaders by voting them out of office
• If a leader chooses to go into a costly war, the voters can oust their leader. (audience costs)
• Wars are riskier for democracies due to higher costs of war.

So,
- Higher costs increase the size of the bargaining range
- Leaders are more selective about entering or starting wars
- Leaders must be willing to pay the audience costs of the war, especially if they lose

[Democracy + democracy = larger bargaining range = war less likely]

[Democracy + non democracy = smaller bargaining range = war more likely]

Question 6

Explain a mechanism behind the democratic peace hypothesis (2)

Answer 6

Mechanism 2: Democracy reveals info

• Bargaining can fail due to incomplete information about each side’s resolve and capabilities.
• • Opponent has incentive to misrepresent and bluff
• • Can lead to states miscalculating and ending up in wars accidentally
• Democracies are more likely to reveal information about resolve and capabilities
• • Policy decisions are subject to public debate
• • Level of opposition is easily observable (eg; parties speak up against each other, surveys of popular support)
• • Press can publish info about military capabilities

So,
- More information can help states overcome the challenges posed by incomplete information and incentives to misrepresent.

• Reduce miscalculations of resolve and capabilities

[Democracy + democracy = more certain about bargaining range = war less likely]

[Democracy + non democracy = less certain about bargaining range = war more likely]