Decision Making & Problem Solving Flashcards
a cognitive process resulting in the selection of a belief or a course of action among several alternative possibilities
Decision making
- selecting an alternative from a set of alternatives
- produces a final choice, which may or may not prompt action
- based on the values, preferences, and beliefs of the decision-maker
perspectives in decision making
a. psychological
b. cognitive
c. normative
*these perspectives are according to the decision theory in psychology
deciding CONSCIOUSLY & WITH FEELINGS
Psychological decision making
- examining individual decisions in the context of a set of NEEDS, PREFERENCES, VALUES that individual has or seeks
decision making regarded as a continuous process integrated in the interaction with the environment
Cognitive decision making
- deciding based on EXPERIENCE, KNOWN KNOWLEDGE
deciding based on HUMAN STANDARDS
Normative decision making
- the analysis of individual decisions concerned with the logic of decision-making, or communicative rationality
types of decision making
a. logical
b. naturalistic
*according to multiple criteria decision analysis (formulated the decision-making paradox)
applying the knowledge in a given area to make informed decisions
Logical decision making
- an important part of all science-based professions
- uses structured approaches
uses intuitive decision making
Naturalistic decision making
- done in extreme situations, eg:
- higher time pressure
- higher stakes
- ambiguous conditions
- uses intuition
characteristics of a good decision
- based on a COMPLETE investigation
- identify & evaluate ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS
- selection of the best solution by IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS
- encompasses an EFFECTIVE STRATEGY to implement a solution
the human element/s in decision making
a. Prejudices
b. Peer pressure
c. Personal interest
d. Emotions
*these elements cloud the decision-making process
T/F:
human factors are not harmful, they should be recognized & given appropriate considerations
TRUE
this balances action, providing the participants the power & independence to consider the impact & act accordingly
Disclosure
- often an effective control method
steps in decision making
- recognition
- investigation
- definition
- identification of alternatives
- evaluation of each option
- selection of the best alternatives
- implementation of the solution
- follow-up on the success, progress of the decision
recognizing the problem
- attention of the manager/chief MT is called through:
- complaint from physician, employee/MT, or patient
- flag or error in control data/automated machines
T/F:
the later the problem is detected the better priorities are set
FALSE
- earlier detection = sooner priorities set
- problems may be a random occurrence –> does not require the manager to be called
how to investigate the problem?
The following may be done to shed light in the nature & seriousness of the problem:
- data collection
- interviewing the staff
- gathering info
defining the problem
- identifying all the issues/aspects of the question
- people
- equipment, supplies
- communication
- workflow
“Once a problem has been defined the solution becomes obvious to all” - Lyndon Johnson
- formulating the correct question = 80% of the solution
deviation
one-time, random human error
effectual problem
symptom or surface sign that may hide the real cause of the problem
causal problem
the root cause of the problem
analytical tools to define a problem
a. root-cause analysis
- problems, causes, effects, solutions
b. fish bone analysis
- herring bone = causes
- factors = materials, methods, measurements, machines, environment, personnel
c. SWOT analysis
- strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats
the key for this step is to be aware of as many alternative solutions as possible
Identification of alternatives
- the manager may wish to do the following:
- solicit advice from other members
- assign the problem to a committee to recommend solutions
*committee system
= slow, ineffective
= one of the best sources for ideas to resolve organizational problems
evaluation of each alternative
- influenced by the judgments of the decision maker
- the more important the decision, the more alternatives should be developed
- analyze the advantages & disadvantages
T/F:
the tendency to quickly adopt to the first viable solution may be time efficient but may lead to a lower quality decision/solution
TRUE
the step wherein one chooses the one with the greatest acceptance with the time available for decision making
selection of the best alternative
the manager determines whether the problem has been solved or the objectives were met
Implementation of the solution
- developing a plan to implement the final decision
follow-up on the success, progress of the decision
- to monitor compliance
- the following key questions must be answered:
- “did the chosen alternative work?”
- “what are the unforeseen consequences that must be addressed because of the chosen alternative?”
- all decisions have risks
- the more uncertain the outcome of a chosen alternative, the greater is the risk
decision making techniques
- Qualitative
- personal judgment
- solicitation of advice
- systematic option review - Quantitative
- probability analysis
- queuing theory
- linear programming
- simulation - Vroom & Yetton’s Continuum of Decision Styles
a vital resource in evaluating alternatives & making decisions
Personal judgment
- choosing between competing options that grow with the following:
- maturity
- (life) experience
- formal training
- career advancement
solicitation of advice
- asking for opinions
- organizing a committee
- most common form of solicitation
- seeking a consensus from colleagues
- delegating the task to staff members
brainstorming
freely throwing out ideas for later evaluation without regard to validity
people with a variety of backgrounds brought together
Synectics
- aka “troubleshooting team”
method used in making decisions in which forecasting future events or trends is important
Delphi method
- input & opinions, experiences are solicited on questionnaires before a meeting
- results are discussed & voted on anonymously
method used in highly structured meetings
Nominal grouping
- individuals write down their original ideas & present them
- members then vote & rank the order of suggestions/ideas
*PROS: discourages peer pressure, encourages creativity
systematic option review
- uses a T chart
- - a technique for evaluating the alternative solutions by writing down the pros & cons of each option
useful when faced with several different options under conditions with significant risks/uncertainty
Probability analysis
- can be priori, empirical, or subjective
predictions obtained by deductions based on ASSUMED CONDITIONS
Priori probability
- example: coin toss
- assumed conditions = heads or tails
probability factors are determined from the recordings OF ACTUAL EVENTS over a specific period of time
Empirical probability
- calculating the number of times each event occurs
- example: predicting the TAT for a STAT test response
prediction based on the KNOWLEDGE & EXPERIENCE of the decision maker
Subjective probability
- examples:
- how much longer will a reagent last on the instrument?
- how sooner will the results be ready?
charts to present the probability analysis
a. payoff matrix
- compares the probability potential of alternatives identified
- the alternative with the greater payoff should be chosen
b. decision tree
- demonstrates the probability potential of selecting a particular course of action at specific decision option points
quantitative decision making technique applied in computer programs
Queuing theory
- ideally suited to the fluctuating & unpredictable workflow of the medical lab.
- determines the appropriate staffing level of “servers” (phlebs, techs, instruments), like:
- ave. no. of units requesting/arriving for service during a designated time period
- ave. no. of units waiting for service
- ave. waiting time
- ave. processing time of a unit
- max. time to wait for results
takes into account the pre-analytical & post-analytical processes of the lab
Linear programming
- allocates limited resources among competing needs
- considers machine/analyzer, TAT, specimen requirement, throughput, tests available & price
linear programming resolves the following problems:
- limits & restraints on the availability of resources (eg. staff, time, expenses)
- allocations of limited resources among competing needs
- maximize income & minimize losses
questions/variables with linear programming
- does the instrument perform all the test required? is additional equipment needed?
- are the throughput & TAT acceptable?
- is the price within the lab budget?
designing models to imitate real life conditions so the different intervention scenarios can be compared
Simulation
- uses the computer to calculate trial inputs & resulting output to explore alternatives before facing reality
- more sophisticated computer simulation = more useful to the chief MT –> all possible variables & their influences are best isolated/identified
formulas in a payoff matrix
a. PI = P x profit
- PI = potential income
- P = possible volume
b. PO = PI x probability
- PO = expected payoff
- probability = subjective potential
- - if subjective potential is not mentioned, it is understood that there is 100% probability for P to be achieved
decision making technique designed to help identify the best decision-making approach & leadership style to take, based on the current situation
Vroom & Yetton’s Continuum of Decision Styles
- by Victor Vroom & Philip Yetton
- “Leadership & Decision Making” (1973)
- the graph is formulated based on the seven questions about:
- decision quality
- commitment
- problem info
- decision acceptance
- which leaders can determine the level of the followers’ involvement in the decision
decision styles according to Vroom & Yetton
a. autocratic
- AI
- AII
b. consultative
- CI
- CII
c. group
- GI
- GII
d. delegation
- DI
the individual solves the problem or makes the decision her/himself using the info available to him/her
AI
- takes the least time to make a decision
- subordinates are most resistant to the change
the individual solve the problem or makes the decision her/himself using info from subordinates
AII
- subordinates may or may not be aware of the decision-making process & their role in it
- takes lesser time to make a decision
- subordinates are more resistant to change
the individual shares the problem with relevant subordinates individually & gets their ideas
CI
- decision is made after sharing the problem, either accepting or rejecting the subordinates’ advice
- takes less time to make a decision
- subordinates are a bit more resistant to change
the individual shares the problem with relevant subordinates at a group meeting, getting their ideas
CII
- decision is made after group meeting, either accepting or rejecting the subordinates’ advice
- takes an ample time to make a decision
- subordinates are resistant to change
the individual shares the problem with subordinates individually & together analyze the problem
GI
- both the subordinate & the individual arrive at a mutual solution where both of them contribute
- takes a long time to make a decision
- subordinates are less resistant to change
the individual shares the problem with relevant subordinates at a group meeting & together analyze the problem at a group decision
GII
- the individual tries not to influence the group; the individual is willing to accept & implement what the group recommends
- takes longer time to make a decision
- subordinates are less resistant to change
the individual delegates the problem to a subordinate, providing him/her with relevant info
DI
- the subordinate is given the sole responsibility for the problem
- takes the longest time to make a decision
- subordinates are least resistant to change
