Decision analysis Flashcards
Complex decisions
multiple value dimensions, which may be in conflict
Non-compensatory vs. compensatory strategies
- A negative value on one attribute cannot be compensated by an equal or higher value on another attribute
- A negative value on one attribute can be compensated by an equal or higher value on another attribute
Non-compensatory strategies
Based on decision rules to shortcut or simplify the process “Elimination by Aspect” strategy (Tversky 1972)
-> Elimination of the option with the very low rate on an important attribute from the decisionprocess
“Lexicographic rule” (Svenson 1979)
-> Pick up the option with the best rate on a specific attribute
Compensatory strategies
Multi Attribute Utility Theory
MAUT
MAUT
Technique to support decision making when there is a limited number of available alternatives
AIM:To assist decision makers make better choices by helping them to achieve greater understanding and insight into the decision they are facing
MAUT steps
Step 1. List of defining alternatives and value-relevant attributesStep 2. Evaluating each alternative separately on each attributeStep 3. Assigning relative weights to the attributesStep 4. Aggregating the weights of attributes and the single-attribute evaluations of alternatives (overall evaluation)
MAUT step 1
List alternatives and value-relevant attributes. Very demanding and time consuming
- Complete
- Operational
- Decomposable
- Non redundant
- Minimal
p. s. We can operationalize attributes as we prefer as long as the value scale is satisfied
MAUT Step 2
Evaluate each alternative separately on each attribute
Different elicitation methods:
-Direct rating(assigned a score from 0 to 100)
-Difference standard sequences(a sequence of stimuli that are equally spaced in value)
- Bisection method (the most and least preferred option are identified and a midpoint is found that is equidistant in value from both extremes)
MAUT Step 3
Assign relative weights to the attributes
Different elicitation methods:
-Ranking(attributes are ranked in order of importance)
-Direct rating(in which a rating from 0 to 100 is allocated to each criteria)
-Point allocation(in which a total budget of 100 points is divided among criteria
MAUT Step 4
Obtain the overall evaluation
Multiply the weight * attribute value and sum these weighted attribute values over all attributes(weighted linear additive function)
Evidence-based
Explicit use of modern, best evidence in making decisions about the care of individual patients
Integrates clinical experience, patient values, and the best available research information
Patient-centered
Actively involves patients and incorporate patient preferences and values
MULTI CRITERIA METHODS
ideal because they incorporate multiple considerations into the decision making process
Set of techniques that provides:
▪clarity on which criteria are relevant
▪the importance attached to each criteria
▪how to use this information
MCDA modeling approaches:
- Value measurement models
- Outranking methods
- Reference-level modeling
Value measurement models
Constructing and comparing numerical scores to identify the degree to which one decision alternative is preferred over another