Counterfactuals Flashcards
What is Counterfactual Thinking?
•Mental simulation about how a past event might have been different•“If only…” thoughts
Direction of CFT
Main feature/classification
- UPWARD: We imagine how things could have been better.
•Induces negative affect, but might help to do better in the future•More common than downward counterfactuals - DOWNWARD
We imagine how things could have been worse.
•Induces positive affect, but might prevent future improvement•Can observed with low repeatability / low control
Structure of CFT
Main featuers/classification
- ADDITIVE Change past event by adding something •“Expansive” processing style •Help with creative generation tasks - SUBTRACTIVE Change past event by removingsomething •“Relational” processing style •Help with analytical tasks (like syllogisms)
Determinants of Counterfactual Thinking
- NEGATIVE AFFECT: Signal that a problem is present
•Prompts comparison with a better alternative
•Strong antecedent of upward counterfactual - OUTCOME CLOSENESS: High perceived possibility that an alternative outcome could have happened (positive or negative)
•Temporal, physical, numerical
•Nearly avoided negative outcomes might prompt downward counterfactuals
Content of Counterfactual Thinking
- Potentially infinite number of possible counterfactuals
- But people show consistent patterns in the content of their counterfactuals
- Four Fault Lines of Reality
Fault Lines –Controllability Effect
When we generate a counterfactual, we tend to mutate controllable rather than uncontrollable elements of the past event
Exceptionality effect (Kahneman& Tversky, 1982a)
When we generate a counterfactual, we tend to mutate out-of-the-ordinary rather than normal elements of the past event
Action effect (Kahneman& Tversky, 1982b)
When we generate a counterfactual, we tend to mutate an action rather than an inaction
Temporal order effect (Miller & Gunasegaram, 1990)
When we generate a counterfactual, we tend to mutate the most recent rather than earlier elements of the past event
What is the content of our counterfactual thoughts?
Four Fault Lines:
- Controllability Effect
- Exceptionality effect
- Action effect
- Temporal order effect
How do we classify counterfactual thoughts?
- Direction
- Structure
When do we produce counterfactual thoughts?
Determinants
- Negative affect
- Outcome closeness
Why do we engage in Counterfactual Thinking?
Functional Theory of Counterfactual Thinking (Epstude& Roese, 2008
Functional Theory of Counterfactual Thinking (Epstude& Roese, 2008)
•After a negative event, counterfactuals are generated to prepare ourselves and do better in a future similar event (preparatory function)
•Activated when a problem is detected, favoring behaviors that should correct the problem
Problem with Functional Theory
- Controllability effect is crucial for Functional Theory
- Previous studies only used scenarios, assuming that counterfactuals by readers and actors would have been the same
- Do actors produce controllable counterfactuals as well?
Actor-Reader Effect
Discrepancy between counterfactuals by readers and actors:
•Readers produced majority of controllable counterfactuals (“If only she had chosen the other envelope”)
•Actors produced a majority of uncontrollable counterfactuals (“If only I could have used paper and pencil”)
Result replicated in many other studies
This finding questions the robustness of Functional Theory: uncontrollable counterfactuals have little preparatory value