Counterfactual Thinking Flashcards
What is counterfactual thinking (CT)?
Thinking about how things could have turned out differently when something unexpected happens
What counts as counterfactual thinking?
Pretending
Future hypotheticals - alternative future realities
Counterfactual curiosity - curious about what could have been
Counterfactual thoughts - create plausible alternatives
What are 3 key developments of CT?
Representing falsity as if it were true
Holding multiple possibilities in mind
Making comparisons between possible worlds
How can we test if children represent falsity as if it were true?
Ask question based off story about something that could have happened
Correct from 3 (Harris, 96) but suggested difficult from 3, easy for 4 by Beck (2010)
Child needs inhibitory control to ignore facts
How can we test multiple possibilities in adults?
Given unexpected memory test after reading counterfactual conditional., people mistakenly recall A & not B (fact) (Fillenbaum, 74)
Do children hold multiple possibilities in mind?
When asked open question about where mouse could go, younger children place cotton wool in one place, older place 2
When asked which horse almost fell off table, under 5s pick horse at table edge (Harris, 97)
How did Pliz (2005) look at basic conditional reasoning?
Test of location change to either boy or girls room depending on location at beginning (top/ bottom shelf)
Ask where are sweets now
Future hypothetical asking what will happen if boy comes for sweets & counterfactual asking what would happen in girl came looking
Where would they be
What is the importance of basic conditional reasoning ?
Crucial to use in tasks in which counterfactual & hypothetical reasoning give different answers to counterfactual question
Easily successful result of basic conditional reasoning
What were Beck & RIggs view of counterfactual thinking?
Not until adolsecence
Earlier successes seen as representing steps along the way to adult-like counterfactual thinking
Some earlier successes can’t be explained by conditional reasoning
What are th flaws of conditional reasoning?
Doesn’t explain why future hypotheticals are easier than counterfactual
Why inhibitory control predicts performance
How can we investigate spontaneous counterfactual thinking?
Guarjardo et al (2016)
Children (8-11) asked what they thought about what happened in 4 stories
Had favourable/ unfavourable & expected/ unexpected outcomes
Cognitive flexibility test
Response coded for frequency of counterfactual - 43% spontaneous CFs, 21% with implicit prompts, all with explicit prompts
What are compassions between possible worlds?
Adults more likely to generate counterfactual about negative events - upward counterfactuals about how it could’ve tuned out better
Results in counterfactual emotions - regret, relief, shame & guilt
How do children compare possible worlds?
5yr olds more likely to engage in counterfactual thinking after bad outcome than good
No systemic explanation of counterfactual types
What did Guttentag & Ferrel et al (2004) find when examining if children understood counterfactuals?
7yr+ responded like adults identifying (mutable) targets as experiencing more regret
7yrs didn’t exhibit relief
Different ages experience different emotions
What are criticisms of early studies?
Somewhat leading questions
Task makes demands on WM & language
Compare 2 people
Theory of mind demands
What did Weinberg & Beck find when looking at if children experience regret & relief (2010/12)?
Evidence of regret emerging at 5 and relief at 7
Attribute regret to other people more difficult
More counterfactuals in response to negative
What did Weisberg & Beck (2011) see when looking at controlling regret in children?
More regret when they made choice, less with no control over condition
Older experienced more regret
What’s the role of agency in regret & relief according to Guerini et al (2020)?
No effect of agency in elation & disappointment trials
Effect in regret trials from 6
Effect in relief trials from 10
What difficulties are faced when making comparisons between world conclusions?
Not all emotions experienced at the same developmental stage
What did Beck & Riggs list as factors affecting counterfactual thinking (2014)?
Executive processes (inhibition, attentional flexibility, WM)
Language
Domain specific knowledge (causality)
Theory of mind
Decision making
What is the role of inhibition with counterfactual language?
Reasoning about false reality requires inhibiting true reality
Inhibitory control predicts ability to answer counterfactual questions in location change story
What is Becks et al (2009) individual differences study
3-4 yrs measured inhibitory control, WM, counterfactual reasoning & verbal ability
Only inhibitory control & receptive vocab were predictive of counterfactual thinking score
How did Beck et al (2011) measure inhibitory control?
Manipulation of inhibitory demands point with finger at location change answer
Reduced with 4 second delay & cardboard arrow
Better performance by 3-4yrs in experimental condition
What is attentional flexibility?
Ability to switch between mental states
Making comparisons between reality & alternatives requires switching
Crucial for counterfactual emotions
How did Burns et al (2012) measure executive control & regret?
Executive functions test (WM, inhibitory control & task switching)
2 regret tasks
4-7yr olds
Only switching significantly predicted regret
How does WM relate to counterfactual thinking?
Keep in mind reality & alternatives requires WM
Predicts generation of counterfactuals
No firm evidence in involvement in relating counterfactuals & real possibilities
What is domain specific knowledge (Sobel, 2011)?
Childs ability to make counterfactual inferences depends on specific causal knowledge they posses about inferences
3yrs understand impact of un/fulfilled desires
5yrs understand causal relation between knowledge & surprise
How do counterfactuals affect causal reasoning?
Counterfactual reasoning plays vital role in determining causality
Children preform better when prediction rather than counterfactual reasoning required
How did Frosch et al (2012) look at children’s understandings of cause & effect?
Developmental trend (4-5 = chance, 5-6 = improved, 6-8 = above chance)
Children understand how variables are related but cannot judge how intervening one affects others
How do counterfactuals affect theory of mind?
Accounts partially for theory of mind
Age & language accounted for 46% variance in ToM scores
Number & type of counterfactuals generated accounted for additional variance
What did O’Connor et al (2014) find when looking at counterfactuals & decision making?
6-7 experience regret about a choice not to wait delays gratification when faced with same choice again
Experienced regret = switch on regret trial
No regret = switch on both or neither
