Counterfactual Thinking

Question 1

What is counterfactual thinking (CT)?

Answer 1

Thinking about how things could have turned out differently when something unexpected happens

Question 2

What counts as counterfactual thinking?

Answer 2

Pretending
Future hypotheticals - alternative future realities
Counterfactual curiosity - curious about what could have been
Counterfactual thoughts - create plausible alternatives

Question 3

What are 3 key developments of CT?

Answer 3

Representing falsity as if it were true
Holding multiple possibilities in mind
Making comparisons between possible worlds

Question 4

How can we test if children represent falsity as if it were true?

Answer 4

Ask question based off story about something that could have happened
Correct from 3 (Harris, 96) but suggested difficult from 3, easy for 4 by Beck (2010)
Child needs inhibitory control to ignore facts

Question 5

How can we test multiple possibilities in adults?

Answer 5

Given unexpected memory test after reading counterfactual conditional., people mistakenly recall A & not B (fact) (Fillenbaum, 74)

Question 6

Do children hold multiple possibilities in mind?

Answer 6

When asked open question about where mouse could go, younger children place cotton wool in one place, older place 2
When asked which horse almost fell off table, under 5s pick horse at table edge (Harris, 97)

Question 7

How did Pliz (2005) look at basic conditional reasoning?

Answer 7

Test of location change to either boy or girls room depending on location at beginning (top/ bottom shelf)
Ask where are sweets now
Future hypothetical asking what will happen if boy comes for sweets & counterfactual asking what would happen in girl came looking
Where would they be

Question 8

What is the importance of basic conditional reasoning ?

Answer 8

Crucial to use in tasks in which counterfactual & hypothetical reasoning give different answers to counterfactual question
Easily successful result of basic conditional reasoning

Question 9

What were Beck & RIggs view of counterfactual thinking?

Answer 9

Not until adolsecence
Earlier successes seen as representing steps along the way to adult-like counterfactual thinking
Some earlier successes can’t be explained by conditional reasoning

Question 10

What are th flaws of conditional reasoning?

Answer 10

Doesn’t explain why future hypotheticals are easier than counterfactual
Why inhibitory control predicts performance

Question 11

How can we investigate spontaneous counterfactual thinking?

Answer 11

Guarjardo et al (2016)
Children (8-11) asked what they thought about what happened in 4 stories
Had favourable/ unfavourable & expected/ unexpected outcomes
Cognitive flexibility test
Response coded for frequency of counterfactual - 43% spontaneous CFs, 21% with implicit prompts, all with explicit prompts

Question 12

What are compassions between possible worlds?

Answer 12

Adults more likely to generate counterfactual about negative events - upward counterfactuals about how it could’ve tuned out better
Results in counterfactual emotions - regret, relief, shame & guilt

Question 13

How do children compare possible worlds?

Answer 13

5yr olds more likely to engage in counterfactual thinking after bad outcome than good
No systemic explanation of counterfactual types

Question 14

What did Guttentag & Ferrel et al (2004) find when examining if children understood counterfactuals?

Answer 14

7yr+ responded like adults identifying (mutable) targets as experiencing more regret
7yrs didn’t exhibit relief
Different ages experience different emotions

Question 15

What are criticisms of early studies?

Answer 15

Somewhat leading questions
Task makes demands on WM & language
Compare 2 people
Theory of mind demands

Question 16

What did Weinberg & Beck find when looking at if children experience regret & relief (2010/12)?

Answer 16

Evidence of regret emerging at 5 and relief at 7
Attribute regret to other people more difficult
More counterfactuals in response to negative

Question 17

What did Weisberg & Beck (2011) see when looking at controlling regret in children?

Answer 17

More regret when they made choice, less with no control over condition
Older experienced more regret

Question 18

What’s the role of agency in regret & relief according to Guerini et al (2020)?

Answer 18

No effect of agency in elation & disappointment trials
Effect in regret trials from 6
Effect in relief trials from 10

Question 19

What difficulties are faced when making comparisons between world conclusions?

Answer 19

Not all emotions experienced at the same developmental stage

Question 20

What did Beck & Riggs list as factors affecting counterfactual thinking (2014)?

Answer 20

Executive processes (inhibition, attentional flexibility, WM)
Language
Domain specific knowledge (causality)
Theory of mind
Decision making

Question 21

What is the role of inhibition with counterfactual language?

Answer 21

Reasoning about false reality requires inhibiting true reality
Inhibitory control predicts ability to answer counterfactual questions in location change story

Question 22

What is Becks et al (2009) individual differences study

Answer 22

3-4 yrs measured inhibitory control, WM, counterfactual reasoning & verbal ability
Only inhibitory control & receptive vocab were predictive of counterfactual thinking score

Question 23

How did Beck et al (2011) measure inhibitory control?

Answer 23

Manipulation of inhibitory demands point with finger at location change answer
Reduced with 4 second delay & cardboard arrow
Better performance by 3-4yrs in experimental condition

Question 24

What is attentional flexibility?

Answer 24

Ability to switch between mental states
Making comparisons between reality & alternatives requires switching
Crucial for counterfactual emotions

Question 25

How did Burns et al (2012) measure executive control & regret?

Answer 25

Executive functions test (WM, inhibitory control & task switching)
2 regret tasks
4-7yr olds
Only switching significantly predicted regret

Question 26

How does WM relate to counterfactual thinking?

Answer 26

Keep in mind reality & alternatives requires WM
Predicts generation of counterfactuals
No firm evidence in involvement in relating counterfactuals & real possibilities

Question 27

What is domain specific knowledge (Sobel, 2011)?

Answer 27

Childs ability to make counterfactual inferences depends on specific causal knowledge they posses about inferences
3yrs understand impact of un/fulfilled desires
5yrs understand causal relation between knowledge & surprise

Question 28

How do counterfactuals affect causal reasoning?

Answer 28

Counterfactual reasoning plays vital role in determining causality
Children preform better when prediction rather than counterfactual reasoning required

Question 29

How did Frosch et al (2012) look at children’s understandings of cause & effect?

Answer 29

Developmental trend (4-5 = chance, 5-6 = improved, 6-8 = above chance)
Children understand how variables are related but cannot judge how intervening one affects others

Question 30

How do counterfactuals affect theory of mind?

Answer 30

Accounts partially for theory of mind
Age & language accounted for 46% variance in ToM scores
Number & type of counterfactuals generated accounted for additional variance

Question 31

What did O’Connor et al (2014) find when looking at counterfactuals & decision making?

Answer 31

6-7 experience regret about a choice not to wait delays gratification when faced with same choice again
Experienced regret = switch on regret trial
No regret = switch on both or neither