Core Theme 1 - Patterns And Change Flashcards
Exponential growth
An increasing or accelerating rate of growth
How much of the world’s population growth is taking place in developing countries?
Up to 95%
Annual growth rate
Found by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate and then expressed as a percentage
Crude birth rate
The number of births per 1000 people in a population
General fertility rate
The number of births per 1000 women aged 15-49 years
Age-specific birth rate
The number of births per 1000 women of any specified year groups
Standardised birth rate
A birth rate for a region on the basis that its age composition is the same as for the whole country
Total fertility rate
The average number of births per 1000 women of childbearing age
What proportion of the world’s population is over 60? What will that rise to by 2100?
About 10% of the worlds population is over 60. By 2100, that proportion will have risen to one-third
What is the disadvantage of the Crude Birth Rate?
It doesn’t take into account the age and sex structure of the population
Why do you get high birth rates?
Parents want children
- for labour
- to look after them in old age
- to continue the family name
- for prestige
- to replace other children who have died (high IMR)
- children are net contributors to family income
Why do birth rates come down?
- children are costly
- the government looks after people through pensions and health services
- more women want their own career and have higher status
- widespread use of family planning
- falling IMR reduces need for replacement children
- urbanisation + industrialisation associated with social changes + decline in traditional beliefs + customs
Infant Mortality Rate
The number of deaths of children less than one year old per 1000 live births
Child mortality rate
The number of deaths in children under the age of 5 per 1000 children
Case study: Population growth in Africa
- fastest growing pop. in world
- by 2050 population predicted to be 1.6 billion
- may put burden on foods, jobs, schools, housing, healthcare
- but youthful pop. = large workforce
- worlds highest fertility rate Niger (7.4)
Why does Africa’s population continue to rise?
- low life expectancy
- fertility tends to be high when mortality is high
- in parts of Africa only 28% married women use contraception because
- women may not have control over own bodies
- access to reproductive health services limited due to
- poverty
- underdevelopment
- limited education
- resources
Case study: Falling populations in Serbia
- population is shrinking
- Serbia has 7.2million but declining by 30,000 a year
- war years and economic hardship have led to fewer children, mass emigration and high abortion rates.
- particularly due to the emigration of so many women of childbearing age
When are death rates generally high?
- lack of clean water + food
- poor hygiene + sanitation
- overcrowding
- contagious diseases e.g. diarrhoea
- respiratory infections
Poor rural areas, shanty towns, refugee camps
When do death rates decline?
- clean water
- reliable food supply
- good hygiene + sanitation
- lower population densities
- better vaccination + health care
Why is the crude death rate a poor indicator of mortality trends?
Populations with a large number of aged people (most MEDCs) will have a higher CDR than countries with more youthful populations
Life expectancy
Average number of years that a person can be expected to live, usually from birth, if demographic factors remain unchanged
What does a wide base suggest?
A wide base suggests a high birth rate
What does a narrowing base indicate?
A narrowing base indicates a falling birth rate
What do straight or near-vertical sides show?
Straight sides show a low death rate
What does a concave slope suggest?
A concave slope suggests a high death rate
What do bulges in the slope suggest?
Bulges in the slope indicate high rates of in-migration.
For instance, excess males of 20-35 years could be economic migrants looking for work.
An excess of both male and female cohorts could be due to a baby boom
What do deficits in the slope show?
Deficits in the slope show out-migration / age-specific or sex-specific deaths (such as epidemics or war)
Doubling time
Doubling time is the length of time it takes for a population to double in size, assuming its natural growth rate remains constant
Population momentum
The tendency for population to grow despite a fall in the birth rate or fertility levels. Also the tendency for a population to continue to fall despite a rise in the birth rate.
Why does population momentum occur?
It occurs because of a relatively high concentration of people in the pre-childbearing and childbearing years. As these young people grow older and move through their reproductive years, the greater number of births will exceed the number of deaths in the older populations, and so the population will continue to grow.
Population projections
Population projections are predictions about future population based on trends in fertility, mortality and migration trends
How is the dependency ratio calculated?
Population aged <15 + population aged >64 (dependents)
Divided by
Population aged 16-64 (economically active)
Advantages of youthful population
- large potential workforce
- lower medical costs
- attractive to new investment
- sources of new innovation + ideas
- large potential market for selected goods
- development of services e.g. schools
6 Disadvantages of youthful populations
- cost of supporting schools and clinics
- need to provide sufficient food, housing and water to a growing population e.g. Kibera, Nairobi
- high rates of unemployment
- large numbers living in poor quality housing e.g. in shanty towns
- high rates of population growth
- high crime rates
Older dependency ratio (ODR)
The number of people aged 65 and over for ever 100 people aged 20 to 64
Advantage of ageing population
- growing pool of volunteers in economy
- uphold morals + values of their country
- look after grandchildren allowing both parents to work
- reduced crime rates
- value of the ‘grey economy’
Disadvantages of ageing population
- depletion of labour force
- a trade deficit
- inadequate nursing facilities
- cost of funding pensions + healthcare
- new jobs needed for elderly
- need for in-migration to fuel workforce
Remittances
Transfer of money or goods by foreign workers to their home countries
Ernest Ravenstein investigated migration in the northwest of Britain during the 1880s. What did he discover ?
- most migrants proceed over a short distance. People know more about local opportunities (limited communications)
- migration occurs in stages: rural to small town to large town to city, where they become ‘locked in’ to urban hierarchy
- rich move away from urban areas
- long-distance migrants more likely to go to large cities
What does the model of Everett Lee (1966) describe migration in terms of?
Push and pull factors.
How much of the population of United Arab Emirates is made up of international migrants?
85% of the population
What has the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development said about the ‘brain drain’ from developing countries?
- many LEDCs are losing their skilled professionals, hindering their ability to pull themselves out of poverty
- in 2004 a million educated people emigrated from LEDCs out of a total skilled pool of 6.6million - a loss of 15%
- in Bangladesh 65% of all newly graduated doctors seek jobs abroad
- BUT remittances make up a significant part of those countries foreign earnings
In 2005 what proportion of doctors in countries like the UK and Australia were trained in another country?
Between one quarter and one-third
Why does Africa particularly suffer from large outflows of labour?
- political conflict
- unstable economic conditions
- low wages
Are migrants to rich countries generally better educated than the native population ?
Yes. According to OECD in 2008 fewer than 20% of locals in OECD countries are university educated compared with almost 25% of foreign-born workers.
However, immigrants find it harder to match their skills to a job than locals do, and are more likely to be overqualified
Why does China suffer from the worst brain drain in the world?
Despite booming economy + government incentives to return, an increasing no. of most educated Chinese are relocating to wealthier countries. Due to:
- higher living standards
- better career opportunities
- freedom to have as many children
Economic costs of migration for source location
- loss of young labour
- loss of skilled labour slows development
- out-migration leads to vicious circle of decline
- loss of skilled labour deters investment
Economic benefits of migration for source location
- reduced unemployment
- returning migrants bring back new skills
- remittances
- less pressure on resources e.g. Land
Social costs of migration for source location
- creates a culture of out-migration
- females left as head of household, mother + provider
- unbalanced population pyramid
- returning on retirement places a burden on services
Social benefits of migration for source location
- lower birth rates and reduced population pressure
- remittances may improve welfare and education
- retiring population build new homes
- some may develop new activities e.g. recreation, leisure, tourism
Economic costs of migration for destination
- costs of educating children
- displaced local labour
- money sent to country of origin; pension outflow
- increased pressure on resources
Economic benefits of migration for destination
- often fill undesirable posts
- skills gained at little cost (e.g. doctors to USA)
- some retirement costs transferred to source country
- dependence on guest workers
Social costs of migration for destination
- racism, discrimination, conflict
- male-dominated states e.g. oil rich countries
- loss of cultural identity esp. among second generation
- creation of ghettos
Social benefits of migration for destination
- creation of multicultural societies
- cultural awareness + acceptance
- providers of local services
- growth of ethnic retailing and restaurants
Internally displaced persons
Those who have fled their homes but continue to live on their own countries
Push factors for refugees
- intolerance of one part of society towards another
- environmental deterioration
- state persecution
- natural disasters
- wars
What proportion of internally displaced people live in Africa?
Over half
What has the Population Reference Bureau stated about the impact of girls education?
Numerous studies have demonstrated the positive impact of girls education on child + maternal mortality, health, fertility rates, poverty and economic growth.
Yet less than two cents of every dollar spent on international development is directed specifically towards girls
Impacts of child marriage
- compromises girls development
- often results in early pregnancy + social isolation
- reinforces vicious cycle of low education, high fertility + poverty
Why do men have a lower life expectancy than women?
Worldwide men have higher mortality and greater disability than women due to:
- higher tendency to smoke / drink alcohol / eat unhealthily
- more likely to do manual labour jobs
What are the female health disadvantages?
- risks relating to pregnancy
- gender bias in cultures where strong preference for sons. Means girls receive less nutritious food + less medical care, perpetuating a cycle of poor health
Case study: changing fertility in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
- the region saw is population quadruple in second half of 1900s from 104 to 400 million
- a revolution of marriage + childbearing has slowed growth
- young population ensures momentum for future growth but decline in fertility
- MENA’s TFR declined from 7 children in 1960 to 3 in 2006
- female life expectancy inc. from 52 years in 1970 to 70 in 2004
- a generation ago, 3/4 women married by 20. That proportion has dropped by half
The Populations Refere s Bureau’s analysis of migrant women + occupation found that in 2007 the most skilled jobs were done by men. For example:
- men accounted for 74% of the science + engineering labour force
Working women are increasingly becoming unionised. Name an example of a women’s union
SEWA (the Self-Employed Women’s Association) operates as a trade union + as an economic empowerment group.
Few African countries have legislation in place to assure women’s access to land and property. Why is this ?
- formal law
- traditional legal systems
- societal norms
- customary + religious laws
Deny women the right to acquire + inherit property, particularly in countries where Sharia law applies
Case study: changes to Moroccan family law
- The Moroccan mudawana (1957) based on Maliki School of Islamic jurisprudence
- changes (1993) improved position of women but still remained subordinate
- progressive prime minister (1998) led to National Action Plan for Integration of Women in Development
- 35 women(2002) entered parliament
- campaign to reform mudawana was finally approved (2004)
- wife no longer legally obliged to follow husband
- minimum age of marriage is 18
- both have right to divorce
The status of women is assessed by the gender-related development index (GDI). What does it measure ?
The inequality between the sexes in life expectancy, education and the standard of living
People in rural areas tend to have more children than in urban areas. Why?
- more rigid social pressures on women
- greater freedom + less state control (e.g. China’s one-child policy is enforced less rigorously in rural areas)
- females in rural areas have fewer educational + economic opportunities
- in some urban areas, e.g. Shanty towns, high levels of fertility due to youthful population structure
In general, the higher the level of parental education the fewer the children. Which class families tend to have the fewest children ?
Middle-class families with high aspirations but limited means tend to have the smallest families. They wish to improve their standard of living, and will limit their family size to achieve this.
As a country develops, the major forms of illness and death change. Why ?
- LEDCs have high proportion of infectious diseases e.g. cholera
- fatal diseases in MEDCs are degenerative conditions e.g. cancer + heart disease
This change in disease patter from infectious to degenerative is known as the epidemiological transition
Ageing population in Japan - causes
- by 2020 over 25% of the Japanese population will be over 65
- at present it is 15% of the population
- life expectancy is 79(men) + 85 (women)
- J spends 8.2% of GDP in healthcare
- 210 doctors for every 100,000 people (190 in UK)
- birth rate decline since 1975
Ageing population in Japan - problems
- increase in cost of pensions. More elderly, living longer, need pensions for longer. Falling birth rate = less workers in economy
- government raised pension age from 60 to 65
- rising no. of elderly in nursing homes. Since 2000, everyone over 40 must contribute £20 monthly to pay for care for elderly
- government has raised patient contributions for medical expenses from 10% to 20%
What is happening to Mexico’s population?
- large youthful pop
- under 15s make up 31% of population
- population grew from 20million in 1940 to 122million in 2013
- natural increase: 15.26 per 1000
Why is Mexico’s population changing ?
- low death rate (4.78) due to more childhood vaccinations + doctors
- whilst birth rate is falling, still large percentage of young people. Pop momentum ensures cont. increase
What does this mean for Mexico?
- requires increase in school places
- many young people unable to find work, so emigrate to US
- growing manufacturing industry
- Mexican economy expected to overtake UK’s + become seventh largest economy in world by 2050
- despite being strongly catholic, abortion was legalised in Mexico City to reduce no. abandoned children
Pro-Natalist policies
Include incentives, such as financial payments, to encourage people to have more children
Anti-natalist policies
Are policies to encourage people to have fewer children, for example by providing free state education for only the first child in the family
Why did China introduce the one-child policy?
- China’s population grew exponentially throughout the 1950s and 1960s.
- The birth rate reached 5.8 per 1000, which was unsustainable given China’s natural resources of food, water and energy.
- In 1979, the government introduced rules to limit population growth.
- Those couples who only have one child receive financial rewards and welfare benefits.
- Heavy fines imposed on those with more children
- Rural citizens + ethnic minorities exempted from law
- If a couple has no siblings, they can have two children
Tenure
The way in which rights that people have with respect to land (and property) are held
Impacts of the policy
- has been successful in preventing 300 million births
- China’s rapidly growing economy may not have enough workers to keep it going
- serious gender imbalance due to preference for male heirs. 114 makes for every 100 females.
Anti-natalist - Iran
- women encouraged to wait 3-4 years between pregnancies + not have children before 18 or after 30
- families limited to 3 children
- condoms, pills + sterilisation are free
- religious leaders encourage family planning as social responsibility
Pro-Natalist - Estonia
Why were Estonians having fewer children ?
- poverty on increase
- unsure about job prospects
- lack of childcare facilities
- more women following ‘single’ lifestyles
- many young people migrating overseas
Estonia population policy
- (2004) the government introduced the ‘mother’s salary’ // women are paid to have more children
- working women received 18 months fully paid maternity leave and non-working women receive $200 a month
What did a UN report in 2001 show about Estonia ?
Estonia was one of the fastest shrinking nations on earth
It was at risk of losing half of its population of 1.4million by 2050
Has Estonia’s policy been successful?
- fertility rate rose from 1.3 in late 1990s to 1.5 in 2006
- has plateaued at around 1.5 (1.55 in 2012)
- still below replacement level (2.1)
