Clinical Decision Making

Question 1

How Kahnemans framing works, give the example:

Answer 1

Saying option A will kill 400 people and option B will save 200 people, people will choose option B even though the end result is the same

Question 2

What is confirmatory bias

Answer 2

• The tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions, often leading to errors

Question 3

What is Sunk Cost Fallacy

Answer 3

• Rationally, the only factor affecting future action should be the future costs/benefit ratio
• BUT, humans do not always act rationally
• Often, the more we have invested in the past, the more we are prepared to invest in a problem in the future

Question 4

What does this describe:

• Rationally, the only factor affecting future action should be the future costs/benefit ratio
• BUT, humans do not always act rationally
• Often, the more we have invested in the past, the more we are prepared to invest in a problem in the future

Answer 4

Sunk Cost Fallacy

Question 5

What does this describe:

• The tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions, often leading to errors

Answer 5

confirmatory bias

Question 6

What is heuristics

Answer 6

any approach to problem-solving, learning or discovery that employs a practical method not guaranteed to be perfect, but sufficient for the immediate goals.

Question 7

What does this describe:

any approach to problem-solving, learning or discovery that employs a practical method not guaranteed to be perfect, but sufficient for the immediate goals.

Answer 7

Heuristics

Question 8

2 types of heuristics?

Answer 8

Availability and representative

Question 9

What is availability heuristics

Answer 9

• Probabilities are estimated on the basis of how easily and/or vividly they can be called to mind
• In a study, the majority of participants stated that there are more words in the English language that begin with ‘K’ than words in which ‘K’ is the 3rd letter (this is wrong)
• People tend to heavily weigh their judgements toward more recent information

Question 10

What is representative heuristics

Answer 10

• Subjective probability that a stimulus belongs to a particular class based on how ‘typical’ of that class it appears to be (regardless of base rate probability)
• Whilst often very useful in everyday life, it can also result in neglect of relevant base rates and other errors
• EXAMPLE: being offered melon because you’re Asian

Question 11

What does this describe:

• Subjective probability that a stimulus belongs to a particular class based on how ‘typical’ of that class it appears to be (regardless of base rate probability)
• Whilst often very useful in everyday life, it can also result in neglect of relevant base rates and other errors
• EXAMPLE: being offered melon because you’re Asian

Answer 11

representative heuristics

Question 12

What does this describe:

• Probabilities are estimated on the basis of how easily and/or vividly they can be called to mind
• In a study, the majority of participants stated that there are more words in the English language that begin with ‘K’ than words in which ‘K’ is the 3rd letter (this is wrong)
• People tend to heavily weigh their judgements toward more recent information

Answer 12

Availability Heuristic

Question 13

4 strategies for improving clinical decision making?

Answer 13

1. Recognise that heuristics and biases may be affecting our judgement even though we may not be conscious of them
2. Counteract the effect of top-down information processing by generating alternative theories and looking for evidence to support them rather than just looking for evidence that confirms our preferred theory
3. Understand and employ statistic principles (e.g. Bayes theorem)
4. Use of algorithms and decision-support systems