CIQ 4,5,6 Flashcards
Challenges of the Changing World Order
Rise of Authoritarianism
Admittedly, the world has recently seen the rise of authoritarian rulers in many countries. However, this can hardly be viewed as a new phenomenon.
China has abandoned the ‘one country two systems’ policy, stripping Hong Kong of its freedom and inviting international opprobrium.
Moreover, the human rights violation of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang and China’s aggressive posture towards Taiwan could well become one of the flash points of conflict.
The other major risk of a war in 2022, stems from the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine — the latter being backed by the U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) forces.
The current unrest in Kazakhstan further bodes ill for a world already wracked by a series of coups or internecine strife as in Ethiopia, Libya and certain regions of West Asia and North Africa.
Expanding Chinese Dominance/ Countering China’s Military Strengths
The role of China is possibly the most disrupting one, given the challenge it poses to the existing international order.
Militarily, China is openly challenging U.S. supremacy in many areas, including ‘state-of-the-art weaponry’ such as hyper-sonic technology.
The dip in China’s economic profile in the past year and more could also lead to new tensions in the Asia-Pacific region in 2022.
Moreover, China’s expansionist policies via its Belt and Road Initiative is also being seen as a threat by other global powers such as the US, EU, the G7 Countries as well as by India.
Countering China’s Military Strengths:
1.Deterrence is based on a strong army deployment along with LAC.
India must focus on capabilities that seek to impose punishing costs in the event of a conflict.
2.India has to define a long-term military strategy
3.Superior role of the IAF and Navy: It is needed to ensure operational readiness and dominant role of airforce in high-altitude operations as China doesn’t have many forward bases in the region, further harsh climate of Tibetan plateau makes transportation and mobilization of troops very difficult
4.India also need to develop a dominant naval position in the Indian Ocean.
5.Capabilities must be developed in all domains to impose costs beyond the immediate area of conflict through cyber warfare, space weapons, etc.
India will need to determine how best to respond to China’s sabre-rattling.
India would need to strengthen its military posture, both as a means to deter China and also to convince India’s neighbours that it can stand up to China.
Simultaneously, India should focus on deterring China’s naval force projection in the Indian Ocean Region. In the battle of wits and strength, much will depend on how India responds to the situation.
India’s Border Issues
The persistent two-front threat from Pakistan and China set the stage for a tough continental dimension of India’s security.
Challenges for India in West and Central Asia:
In Central Asia, India will be challenged on how best to manage its traditional friendship with Russia with the pronounced tilt seen more recently in India-U.S. relations.
In West Asia, the challenge for India is how to manage its membership of the Second Quad (India, Israel, the UAE and the U.S.) with the conflicting interests of different players in the region.
Indian diplomacy will be under severe test to manage the extant situation in both regions.
Situation in Sri Lanka
Economic factors:
- Overnight shift to organic fertilisers
- The newly led government by Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2019 promised lower tax rates and wide-ranging SoPs for farmers. The quick implementation of these ill-advised promises
- Sri Lanka’s budget deficits were high during the 26-year long civil war. the global financial crisis of 2008 drained its forex reserves which led to the country borrowing a USD2.6 billion loan from the IMF in 2009.
- The Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 made the bad situation worse -
- the country has foreign debt obligations of about USD 7 billion for 2022.
- Not to forget China’s Debt Trap
Impact of situation in sri lanka on India
Compared to challenges India has more opportunities. Challenges like 1. Decline in Sri Lanka’s share in India’s total exports 2. Automotive firms like Tata Motors and TVS Motors have stopped exports of vehicle kits to Sri Lanka 3.refugees from the Sinhala Land to India through the Palk strait and Gulf of Munnar
However, opportunities include
1.Amid the sudden halt of tea supply by Sri Lanka to the global tea market. the average price for orthodox leaf saw an increase of up to 41% compared to corresponding sales last year. Big Sri Lankan tea importers from Iran, Turkey, Iraq and Russia are reportedly visiting India for tea plantations in Assam and Kolkata.
2.Apparel (Clothing) Market:
Many apparel orders from the United Kingdom, European Union, and Latin American countries are now being diverted to India.
India, which has followed the “Neighbourhood First policy” to cement bonds with its neighbours, can walk that extra mile to help Sri Lanka out of the current crisis and help Sri Lanka towards realising its potential,
- Extending diplomatic ties with Sri Lanka will ease India’s effort to keep the Sri Lankan archipelago out of China’s ‘string of pearls’ game in the Indo-Pacific.
- Implementing Democracy in True Spirit:
- Considerations are needed to help the poor and vulnerable get back on their feet and prevent long-term scarring.
- The steps include an increase in agricultural productivity, increased job opportunities in non-farming sectors, better implementation of reforms and reviving the tourism sector
