Chapter 9: Elections Flashcards
Representative democracy
elected delegates represent a group of people and their interests
American political system is a representative democracy
What do elections do?
-select representatives
-give citizens ability to influence direction of government policy
-give citizens opportunity to reward and punish officeholders seeking reelection
What is the most visible function of American elections?
selection of representatives
Incumbent
a politician running for reelection to the office they currently hold
Challenger
a politician running for a specific office for the first time
Why do Americans have an indirect effect on government policy?
because it is a representative democracy
Policy platform
the set of things a candidate promises to do if elected
How does the election process hold incumbents accountable?
voters make retrospective evaluations (if they don’t like the incumbent’s performance over the previous term in office, they will typically vote for the challenger instead)
these judgements are often shaped by party affiliation
Why are retrospective evaluations significant?
-make incumbents responsive to their constituents’ demands
-can form basis for prospective judgments (voters’ beliefs about how the country will fare if different candidates win)
Candidates running for federal office (House, Senate, or president) face a two-step procedure. What is the FIRST step of this procedure?
if running on behalf of a political party, they must win the party’s nomination in a primary election
if running as Independent, they need to gather signatures on a petition to secure a spot on the ballot
Primary election
a ballot vote in which citizens select a party’s nominee for the general election
different states hold different types of primaries, and state law selects the timing of these elections
Open primary
any registered voter, regardless of party affiliation, can vote in any party’s primary
ex. registered Democrat can choose to vote in Republican primary
Semi-closed primary
registered voters of the party can vote in that party’s primary, but registered Independents can choose which party’s primary to vote in, without needing to officially register with that party
Closed primary
only registered voters who are members of the party can vote in that party’s primary
ex. only registered Republicans can vote in the Republican primary
For House and Senate seats, a few states hold single primaries, in which…
there is one election involving candidates from both parties, with the top two finalists (regardless of party) receiving nominations to the general election
Candidates running for federal office (House, Senate, or president) face a two-step procedure. What is the SECOND step of this procedure?
the general election, held on Election Day, which determines who wins elected positions in government
Presidential elections occur every 4 years (2016, 2020, 2024, …). In a presidential election year, Americans elect who?
the entire House of Representatives, one-third of the Senate, and a president and VP
During midterm elections (2014, 2018, 2022, …), Americans elect who?
there is no presidential contest, but the entire House and a third of the Senate are up for election
What is one implication of the two-step process of primary and general elections?
sometimes the winner of a primary is not a party’s best candidate for the general election
ex. Biden had supporters and experience but was disliked by much of the American electorate
What is a recent development in American elections?
an increase in the practice of automatic absentee voting, in which someone can request an absentee ballot without having to provide a reason (like being out of town on election Day). BUT not all states have this!
The most fundamental feature of American elections is that officeholders are elected in single-member constituencies in which only the winner of the most votes takes office. (Although both of each state’s senators represent the whole state, they are elected separately, usually in different years). Explain what this means
each election is for 1 specific position (like a congressperson, senator, or governor). voters are choosing 1 person to represent their district or state. only 1 person can win each office, and they win by getting more votes than the multiple other candidates, even if they don’t get a majority (more than 50%)
True or false: congressional conflicts over policy often reflect differences in constituents’ demands
TRUE
Plurality voting
the candidate with the most votes wins. used in most House and Senate contests
ex.
Candidate A receives 40% of votes
Candidate B receives 35% of votes
Candidate C receives 25% of votes
Candidate A wins!
Majority voting
a candidate needs a majority (more than 50% of the vote) to win. used in some states
Runoff election
under a majority voting system, a second election is held only if no candidate wins a majority of the votes in the first general election. only the top two vote-getters in the first election compete in the runoff. some candidates have lost runoff elections even though they received the most votes in the first contest
Nonpartisan primary
all candidates, regardless of party, appear on one ballot, and all registered voters are eligible to participate. top vote getters advance to the general election
Top-two primary
type of nonpartisan primary in which top two finishers, regardless of party, advance to general election
Most state laws have laws that allow vote recounts if a race is close (within 1% or less). Even when a recount occurs, it may be impossible to be sure who won the election. Why?
the rules that determine which ballots are valid are often open to interpretation. which candidate wins may depend on how ballots are structured and votes are counted
Claims are often made that officials manipulate election rules to guarantee wins for their favored candidates. Why are they false?
-no reputable study has found significant voter fraud (so voter ID laws solve a problem that does not exist)
-many claims are based on simplistic ideas of what constitutes evidence of it and turn out to be false
What is one issue with voter ID laws?
they create barriers to voting for people who lack an official ID—usually poor, non-white, and vote Democratic
Purpose of voter ID laws
to prevent voter fraud
True or false: much of the real-world debate over voting provisions is not really about governmental priorities; it’s about people trying to shape turnout and who votes in order to ensure election of their preferred candidates.
True
Who can vote according to the Constitution?
-must be at least 18 years old
-are a U.S. citizen
-must your state’s residency requirements (usually 30 days)
-cannot be convicted of a major crime
Constitutional requirements to run for President
at least 35 years old and a natural-born citizen (born in the United States or on U.S. territory, or child of citizen parent)
Constitutional requirements to run for Senator
at least 30 years old and resident of state; U.S. citizen for at least 9 years
Constitutional requirements to run for Representative
at least 25 years old and resident of state; U.S. citizen for at least 7 years
Caucus
a local meeting in which party members select a party’s nominee for the general election
Primary and caucus voters select a candidate, but their votes do not count directly toward the election of that candidate. Where do they go instead?
toward a selection of delegates who have pledged to support the candidate, who then go on to attend the national convention. there, the delegates cast votes that determine their party’s presidential and vice presidential nominees
How is the format (day it is held, # of delegates, etc) of state-level primaries and caucuses determined?
on a state-by-state basis by the state and national party organizations
How are delegates chosen?
-in some states, each candidate preselects a list of delegates
-in other states, delegates are chosen by party leaders after the primary or caucus takes place
Some states require delegates to vote for the candidate they are pledged to. Is this enforceable?
Unsure; has never been tested
What is a candidate’s principal goal in regards to delegates?
to win as many delegates as possible—and to select delegates who will be reliable supporters at the convention
How are primary and caucus votes translated into convention delegates?
varies from state to state, but some general rules apply
proportional allocation vs winner-take-all system
Proportional allocation
divides delegates according to vote share
ex. if a candidate wins 40% of the vote, they get 40% of the delegates
in all Democratic primaries and caucuses and some states’ Republican contests
Winner-take-all system
gives all delegates to the top vote-getter
in only some states’ Republican contests
Why is the order in which primaries and caucuses in different states take place important?
many candidacies don’t survive beyond the early contests (lack of financial contributions & media coverage)
thus, the candidate who leads after the first few primaries/caucuses that are held generally wins the nomination
How come when a sitting president runs for reelection, they typically face little opposition for their party’s nomination?
because most presidents are popular enough among their own party’s faithful supporters that they can win the nomination without too much trouble
only presidents with low approval ratings faced serious opposition in their nomination bids
What is one rule that distinguishes the parties’ candidate selection process?
about one-fifth of the delegates to the Democratic convention are superdelegates
Superdelegate
an elected official or party official chosen by their colleagues to participate in the national convention. can support any candidate they want
When does the national convention happen?
late summer of an election year
Purposes of national convention
- main task: to select the party’s presidential nominee
- to attract public attention to the party and its nominees
Why is the national convention vote usually a formality?
in most recent presidential contests, one candidate had a clear majority of delegates before the convention
To get the nomination, a candidate needs the support of a majority of the delegates. What happens if no candidate receives a majority after the first round of voting?
the voting continues until someone does
What happens after the convention delegates nominate a presidential candidate?
-they nominate a vice presidential candidate (chosen by presidential nominee and almost always ratified by delegates)
-they vote on the party platform
Party platform
a set of objectives outlining the party’s issue positions and priorities. candidates are not required to support their party’s platform
Popular vote
the votes cast by citizens in an election
When you choose your preferred presidential candidate’s name on Election Day, you are really choosing what?
that candidate’s pledged supporters from your state to serve as electors, who will then vote to elect the president
The number of electors for each state equals…
the state’s # of House members (varies by state population) + the state’s # of senators (two per state)
ex. 14 votes for NJ = 12 House members + 2 senators
Electoral College
the body that casts electoral votes in December to formally select the president
Electoral votes
votes cast by members of the Electoral College; after a presidential candidate wins the popular vote in a given state, that candidate’s slate of electors casts electoral votes for the candidate on behalf of that state
How are electoral votes allocated in almost every state?
on a winner-take-all basis: the candidate who wins a given state’s popular vote gets all of that state’s electoral votes
How are electors chosen?
nominated by their political parties
The winner-take-all method of allocating most states’ electoral votes makes candidates focus their attention on which two kinds of states?
- high-population states with lots of electoral votes
- swing states
however, if one candidate is sure to win a particular state, both candidates will direct their efforts elsewhere
Swing states
states that each party won at least once in recent elections. each candidate has a good chance of winning
What is the crucial factor for presidential candidates when choosing where to campaign?
whether both candidates see the state as winnable—if they do, they will campaign there aggressively
How many electoral votes are needed to be president?
at least 270 (majority of the 538 electoral votes)
What is one peculiarity of the Electoral College and why is this peculiarity uncommon?
in most states it is legal for an elector to vote for a candidate they are not pledged to support or abstain from voting
uncommon bc candidates choose electors with an eye toward reliable support
What happens if no candidate receives a majority of the Electoral College votes? When might this happen?
the House members choose the winner with one collective vote per state and winner needs majority of these state-level votes
might happen if a third-party candidate wins substantial electoral votes or if some electors refuse to cast their votes
Why can a presidential candidate win the Electoral College and not the nation’s popular vote?
narrow victories in some states with substantial electoral votes
Election cycle
the two-year period between general elections
Fundamentals
factors of election outcomes that are beyond candidates’ control. can tell us which candidates face an uphill fight or an easy ride
Examples of fundamentals
-rules of elections
-how many ppl in a candidate’s district or state share their party ID
-state of the economy (strong economy benefits incumbents)
Swing districts
districts that have roughly equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans
Safe districts
districts where one party has a significant majority. have somewhat increased over time
Open seat
an elected position for which there is no incumbent
ex. incumbent retires or decides to run for another office
Open seats are of special interest to potential candidates because…
incumbents generally hold an advantage, so candidates from the opposite party have a better chance to win
Permanent campaign
politicians and political organizations are always in campaign mode, even when they are not actively running for office. part of why incumbency advantage exists
To stay in office, incumbents have to do what two things?
keep their constituents happy
-by taking actions that reflect the demands of their constituents (boost voters’ retrospective evaluations)
AND
raise money for their campaign
-helps against strong opponent and deters opposition
Are the fundamentals always the final word in an election?
NO; backgrounds of the candidates, their qualifications for office, and the decisions they make about their campaigns sometimes have significant, even decisive effects
Campaign platform
includes stances on issues and promises about how the candidate will act in office
What types of claims work well politically when campaigning? Why do they work?
ones that play into citizens’ perceptions
aka making promises and taking positions that are simple and consistent with what the average voter believes, even if these beliefs are inconsistent with reality
why they work: because few voters are well informed about public policy or inclined to learn
What things constrain candidates’ campaign platforms?
-positions they have taken in the past (since changing these can seem manipulative)
-party affiliation (decisions that contradict party perceptions brings skepticism from voters)
-demands from potential supporters
-the two-step electoral process (incentive to take relatively extreme policy positions in early campaigning to get support)
Issue ownership
the tendency of one party to be seen as more competent in a specific policy area
Silent primary / money primary
first step of campaign process in which candidates build a staff and gain contributors and volunteers
How come a position/promise that attracts votes in a primary election might not work so well in the general election?
party activists, contributors, and primary voters (whose support candidates need to attract in silent primaries and primaries) hold more extreme positions than voters in the general election
Issue position
an issue which the public is divided about and rival candidates or political parties adopt different policy positions
Who are among the most sought-after campaign staff?
skilled campaign consultants
True or false: almost all campaigns have paid and volunteer staff, ranging from the dozen or so people who work for a typical House candidate to the thousands needed to run a major-party candidate’s presidential campaign
True
Retail politics
candidates meet directly with voters on a small, individual scale. used in primaries
Wholesale politics
candidates contact voters indirectly, such as through media coverage and campaign advertising. used in general election (mostly for president, less likely for Congress)
Basic campaign strategies
- name recognition
- mobilization (GOTV)
- push polling
- positive vs negative campaigning
Name recognition
candidates want as many people as possible to know their names. one of the most fundamental campaign strategies, especially in congressional campaigns
ex. buttons, bumper stickers, yard signs
GOTV (“get out the vote”) or the ground game
a campaign’s voter mobilization efforts to “get out the vote” or make sure its supporters go vote on Election Day
Push polling
political telemarketing
phone calls disguised as research that aim to influence opinions rather than measure them
Positive campaigning
strategy in which a candidate emphasizes their own qualifications and platform
Negative campaigning
strategy in which a candidate focuses on criticizing their opponent
Is the positive or negative tone of a campaign always driven completely by the candidates themselves?
NO; the Internet facilitates efforts to popularize damaging information
Candidates who are behind in the polls sometimes use what?
attack ads
What are attack ads? Are they effective?
campaign ads that criticize the opponent
often fail because they are too outlandish. still, some succeed in changing votes, while others force the opposing candidate to spend time and money denying the ads’ claims
How do candidates often try to “win” political debates?
by contrasting their own records or positions with those of opposing candidates or making claims designed to lower citizens’ opinions of their opponents
True or false: given a relatively uninterested electorate, candidates must figure out how to present themselves to voters in a way that captures their attention and gains their support
TRUE
ex. Trump presenting himself as a successful businessman to match voters’ concerns about the economy
One of the realities about modern American electoral campaigns is that they are, for the most part, conducted indirectly. What does this mean?
they are largely conducted through social media, through news coverage of events, and (most importantly and most expensive) through paid campaign advertising (like 30-second television spots)
What are modern campaign ads generally like?
short, with arresting images that often use photomontages and bold text to engage a distracted citizenry. content varies depending on who is running the ads
Do campaign ads work? Why or Why not?
not really. most citizens ignore the ads or remain unconvinced of their messages
average citizens know that they cannot believe everything they see on television, so campaign ads capture their attention but don’t really change their minds
Candidates often rely on party committees and interest groups to run negative ads. Then the candidates themselves run more positive ads. How come?
so candidates can try to disassociate themselves from the negative ads, since negative ads sometimes drive support away from the candidate running them
What are campaign ads designed to do?
to capture the attention of citizens whose interest in politics is minimal, delivering a message that can be understood without too much interpretation
Why do political scientists stress the importance of the fundamentals when trying to predict election outcomes?
because most things candidates do in campaigns are wasted efforts that have little impact on the election (ex. campaign ads)
Campaign finance
money collected for and spent on campaigns and elections by candidates, political parties, and other organizations and individuals
Federal Election Commission
government agency that enforces and regulates election laws (like regulations on how campaigns can spend money)
True or false: the candidate with the larger budget wins, so candidates listen to large donors and ignore average citizens
FALSE; spending does not guarantee victory, and while candidates court large donors, they are even more obsessed with winning the support of ordinary citizens, because in the end elections are about votes, not money
Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) aka McCain-Feingold Act (2002)
banned soft money contributions. some sections struck down by Citizens United v. FEC
McCutcheon v. Federal Election Commission (2014)
Supreme Court struck down limits on overall campaign contributions to candidates and PACs
Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010)
corporations and unions (not just individuals) are allowed unlimited political expenditures as long as they are independent of a candidate’s campaign organization. led to large increase in spending by these groups
Expenditures
amount of money that is spent on something
Why is Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission criticized?
it tilted political influence toward wealthy donors and corporations
Soft money
a contribution to a political party that is not accounted as going to a particular candidate, thus avoiding various legal limitations. intended for party-building purposes
Hard money
donations to candidates, party committees, or groups which, by law, are limited and must be declared. regulated by FEC
Independent expenditures
campaign spending that is not coordinated with a candidate’s campaign, meaning the spending is done independently by individuals or organizations to advocate for or against political candidates
Does current law place any limits on how much soft money a party can collect or on the size of a group’s independent expenditures?
NOPE
True or false: campaign finance records are so readily available that it is generally easy to identify fraudulent organizations
TRUE. still, while total spending is often quite high, it’s important to remember that a large percentage of that is for advertising
Do campaign contributions alter legislators’ behavior?
nah. most contributions are intended to help elect politicians whom contributors already like, with no expectation that these officials will do anything differently because they received a contribution
Do campaign winners always outspend their opponents?
not. at. all.
Hillary Clinton’s campaign outspent Trump’s by nearly $200 million
Candidates need a base level of funding to hire staff, travel, and run some campaign ads. Beyond that point, success is a function of…
what candidates say and do, not the dollar amount of contributions they receive or the number of ads run on their behalf
True or false: few citizens report high levels of interest in campaigns, many people know little about the candidates or the issues, and many people do not vote
TRUE
Why do some citizens not vote?
-feeling like their vote doesn’t count
-voting involves costs (time and money to get to the polls on Election Day)
Paradox of voting
the question of why citizens vote even though their individual votes stand little chance of changing the election outcome
Rank in terms of highest to lowest voter turnout: presidential elections, midterm elections, primaries, caucuses
presidential elections (60%, recent increase due to mail-in ballots) > midterm elections (45%) > primaries (30%, often ~20%) > caucuses (a few % points)
Structural factors affecting voter turnout
-state laws prohibiting convicted felons from voting
-needing to be registered to vote a set # of days before election
-variation in early-voting and voting-by-mail laws
-laws requiring photo ID to vote
-laws that make it easier or harder to obtain an absentee ballot
Why are ID requirements and efforts to curb voting by mail and polling hours are so controversial?
they have significant effects on who votes
What is the most effective way to increase voter turnout?
to convince individual Americans that voting is something they should feel obligated to do
True or false: many candidates for political office spend at least as much time trying to convince their supporters to vote as they do trying to persuade others to become supporters in the first place
TRUE
Issue voters
people who are highly interested in politics, collect all the info they can about the candidates, and use that to vote
Voting cues
pieces of information about a candidate that are readily available, easy to interpret, and lead a citizen to decide to vote for a particular candidate
Why do voting cues help citizens decide who to vote for?
-most ppl aren’t interested enough in politics to read every single detail
-reliable info about candidates is difficult to find or difficult to interpret
-are a low-cost way to cast what Samuel Popkin calls a reasonable vote—a vote that is likely consistent with the voter’s true preference among candidates
Types of voting cues
- party ID
-voting for the candidate who shares your party identification - personal vote
-voting for a candidate who has helped you or your community - personal characteristics
-voting for the candidate whose personal characteristics (age, race, gender, etc) match your own - pocketbook voting
-voting for the incumbent if the economy is strong and for the challenger otherwise
How are voting cues related to why the fundamentals matter?
-some ppl vote on the state of the economy, so incumbent presidents are good bets to win reelection when economic conditions are good
-some ppl vote based on party ID, so candidates are more likely to win if their party affiliation is shared by the bulk of voters in their state or district
How are voting cues related to why candidates (and campaigns) matter?
bc citizens may use a candidate’s record in office to guide their decision, especially if that record is a central theme of their campaign
How are voting cues related to why personal characteristics matter?
some candidates have a better chance of winning bc they have one or more cues that citizens see as desirable
ex. voting for Biden bc of his political experience
still, some cues override others
ex. Trump won despite his extramarital affairs and lack of political experience
What cues do voters use for congressional elections?
cues that focus on the candidates themselves
ex. incumbency, partisanship, a personal connection to the candidate, the candidate’s personal characteristics, retrospective evaluations
What does “all politics is local” mean?
the winner of congressional elections depends on what voters think of the candidate in particular—not the president, Congress, or national issues
Coattails
the tendency for a popular presidential candidate to help boost the electoral chances of other candidates from the same party running in the same election
Split ticket
a ballot on which a voter selects candidates from more than one political party
Straight ticket
a ballot on which a voter selects candidates from only one party
Voting decisions in presidential and congressional elections are made independently of each other (refer back to “all politics is local”). What examples prove this?
-electoral coattails are weak or nonexistent in most American elections
-so many Americans cast split tickets rather than straight tickets
Wave elections
occur when a large # of ppl vote against incumbents bc they disapproved of their performance (like bad economy, political scandal, or a costly, unpopular war)
somewhat rare
Even in wave elections, reelection rates for Congress members are generally high. Why?
bc the members work to insulate themselves from electoral challenges
ex. raising campaign funds way in advance, enacting pork-barrel legislation, redistricting
generally works, but not always!
Do some voters still use incumbent-centered cues in wave elections?
yeah
in a wave election, voters don’t suddenly become better informed about politics. rather, some of them just switch to a different set of voting cues depending on the circumstances of the election
Safe seats
electoral districts that are highly likely to be won by a particular political party
Why does the president’s party typically lose congressional seats in midterm elections?
-voters often use it as a way to express dissatisfaction with the president’s performance
-common for opposition party to gain momentum as they position themselves for the next presidential election
-midterms tend to have lower voter turnout, which often favors the more motivated opposition party
Who controlled the House after the 2022 midterms? The Senate?
House: Republicans won control with a narrow majority
Senate: Democrats maintained their majority
What 4 developments favored Democrats in the 2022 midterms?
- in some states, Republican primary voters selected political novices over experienced candidates
- Roe v. Wade decision motivated turnout among women and younger voters (key constituencies)
- favorable economic developments would rebut Republican claims that Democrats had mismanaged the economy
- Republican gains from redistricting were smaller than expected
Why did some voters shift to republican candidates toward the end of the 2022 midterms?
- the state of the economy under Biden
- concerns about whether America was on the right track
- other forces that work against the party in power during midterm elections
Which party controlled the House and the Senate after the 2020 midterms?
Democrats (meaning unified control of Congress and presidency)
