Chapter 6: Public Opinion Flashcards
Public opinion
citizen’s views on politics and government actions
Public opinion matters for what three reasons?
- citizens’ political actions (voting, contributing to campaigns, writing letters to senators, etc) are driven by their opinions
- examining public opinion helps explain the behavior of political actors
- because public opinion is a key to understanding what motivates both citizens and political officials, it can shed light on the reasons for specific policy outcomes
What are the 2 types of opinions when considering public opinion?
- performed opinions
- latent opinions
Performed opinions
broad expressions, like how people think about politics and what they want from government. shaped early in life and remain stable throughout a lifetime
ex. party ID, liberal or conservative ideology, trust in government
What is the most important thing to understand about public opinion?
the average person doesn’t maintain a set of fully formed opinions on all political topics: most judgements are latent opinions
Latent opinions
opinions that are formed on the spot as needed
ex. answering a survey questions or deciding on Election Day how to vote
What is an important purpose of performed opinions?
they help people form latent opinions about other questions
ex. many people use party ID to decide about other matters, like the state of the economy. they say things are good if the president is from their party and things are bad if not
True or false: people who follow politics closely have more preformed opinions than the average American, whose interest in politics is relatively low
True
Few people are so well informed that they have ready opinions on a wide range of issues, and even when they do, they may not remember every factor that influenced their opinions
Opinions vary in intensity. Why does intensity matter?
-it shapes whether and how people act on their opinions
-it is also one reason why government policies sometimes reflect the intense minority opinion, not the weaker opinions held by the majority (ex. gun control laws)
Political socialization
the process by which an individual’s political opinions are shaped by other people and the surrounding culture
ex. children develop a liberal or conservative ideology, level of trust in others, class/racial/ethnic identity, and other political opinions based on what they learn from their parents
What aspects of socialization can shape political opinions?
-parents
-friends
-people you interact with growing up (teachers, neighbors, etc.)
-taking a civics class in high school
-growing up in a homogenous community
-random interactions (people you meet each day)
Are opinions formed through socialization permanent?
NO; in fact, people often respond to events by modifying their opinions, even those developed early in life
How do events (from everyday interactions to national events like a mass shooting) shape public opinion?
some events have greater impact on public opinion than others, and some people are more likely than others to change their views
When are opinion changes generated by an event or some other new information more likely?
-when an individual is unfamiliar with the event or information yet considers it to be important (since they have no preexisting principles to interpret it)
-people who don’t have strong beliefs are also more likely to change their opinions than are people who hold strong opinions
How does group identity affect someone’s opinions?
opinions on many issues are correlated with the state or region where a person grew up or lives (they experienced the same historical events at similar points in their lives or learned political viewpoints from one another)
How can group identity be a function of age?
-some ideological opinions are commonly shared between an age group
-opinions differ between different age groups
How do group identities shape partisanship?
people may rely on others who “look like” them as a source of opinions
ex. when people are trying to decide between being a Republican or a Democrat, they think about which demographic groups are associated with each party and pick the party that has more members from the groups they identify with
Why is it important to examine group variations in public opinion?
candidates and political consultants often formulate their campaign strategies in terms of groups
ex. Democratic candidates target minorities and young voters
True or false: group characteristics can be important predictors of some of an individual’s opinions, but they are not the whole story
TRUE
because Americans’ opinions are also a product of their socialization and life experiences, their group characteristics may tell us something about their opinions on some issues but reveal little about their thoughts on other issues
Can opinions and changes in opinion be subject to influence by political actors? Why or why not?
yes; partly because Americans look to them for information based on their presumed expertise. if the person’s opinions seem reasonable, you might adopt them as your own
People don’t search haphazardly for advice. When do they take account of an expert’s opinions?
only when they generally agree with the expert (perhaps bc they are both conservatives or Democrats or because they have some other basis for thinking their preferences are alike)
ex. Trump’s claims about a “deep state” prob reinforced his supporters’ high levels of distrust of government
Political actors actively work to shape public opinion. Why does this not always work?
because politicians are generally seen as advocates for a particular point of view, it is relatively difficult for them to change opinions of people not already sympathetic to their views. if anything, it can harden resistance among some groups
When people form opinions on the spot (which is true for most opinions), they are based on ____
considerations: pieces of relevant information from sources like…
-ideology
-party ID
-influence of family and community members
-personal and national events
-group identification
-opinions and actions of politicians
What kinds of considerations do people (highly informed politically or not) use when forming opinions?
only considerations that come to mind immediately
What are many Americans’ opinions mainly centered on?
party ID
How are considerations a shortcut for forming opinions without much effort?
a Republican voter is likely to agree with most decisions made by a Republican president and disagree with most decisions made by a Democrat
can still lead to inaccurate judgements (like judging state of economy based on president’s party affiliation)
How did people form political opinions on candidates and presidents a generation ago (when parties were less polarized)? Why is this important?
-presidents: perceptions of economic conditions
-candidates: impact of the candidate’s personal characteristics (divorce used to be a big no-no)
importance: shows party ID is not the only consideration people use to form opinions
Why are people’s opinions sometimes hard to predict or understand?
most people form the bulk of their opinions on the spot using a wide range of considerations, and we don’t know which considerations will come to mind when we ask them what they think
Why are opinions easier to understand on the aggregate level?
unique differences in how individuals form beliefs largely cancel each other out, leaving common factors that are important for most people
In the current era, presidential approval ratings are mostly driven by ____
partisanship
Even if an event is momentous (like a mass shooting or domestic terror attack), shift in public opinion may be quite small and transitory. How come?
such events are only one factor that shapes opinion
Why is knowing what’s behind someone’s opinions on an issue important?
it can help you decide how you feel about that issue and whether or not the other person’s argument carries weight
Mass surveys
-interviews (typically online) with a relatively small number of people that aim to measure the attitudes of a large population
-involve samples
Population
the group of people whom a researcher or pollster wants to study, such as evangelicals, senior citizens, or Americans
Focus groups
small groups of people interviewed in a group setting
Pros and cons of focus groups
pro: allow respondents to answer questions in their own words
con: cannot be used to form conclusions about public opinion across the entire country due to their small size
Sampling error
the predicted difference between the average opinion expressed by survey respondents and the average opinion in the population, sometimes called the margin of error. increasing # of respondents lowers the sampling error
Why do mass surveys typically interview around 1,000 people?
this is the point where adding interviewees provides relatively little improvement in accuracy
True or false: large samples (1,000 or more) are much more likely to provide accurate info about population opinions than small ones (fewer than 500)
True
Why should you be cautious when you read about small differences in survey responses (like a 51-49 percent split)?
because the % split is smaller than the sampling error, it is unlikely to hold true in the entire population
Issue scale
survey response format in which respondents select their answers from a range of positions between two extremes
Selection bias
when a sample designed to be random contains too many of some kinds of people and too few of others
Measurement error
pollsters think they are asking about one thing, but respondents believe they are being asked about something else
ex. ambiguous or poorly worded questions
Random digit dialing
generating random telephone numbers, including both listed and unlisted numbers, to reach a representative sample of the population for interviews or surveys
Is random digit dialing a good survey method?
most people have phone numbers, so random digit dialing is a good one. however, through this method, surveyors will miss out on people who don’t have phones or choose not to answer them
Robo-polls
an automated system phones people and interviews them
Push polls
a campaign uses biased survey questions as a way of driving support away from an opponent
NOT legitimate polls: used to persuade, not measure opinion
True or false: how questions are worded can affect survey results
TRUE: shows how hard it is to accurately measure opinions
Social desirability bias
people answering survey questions are less willing to admit to actions or express opinions that they believe their neighbors or society at large would disapprove of, such as racial prejudice
How do pollsters address social desirability bias?
-asking questions in multiple ways
-verifying answers when possible (ex. checking with county boards of elections to see if respondents who said they voted actually went to the polls)
-when there is concern that respondents will try to hide their prejudices, pollsters sometimes frame a question in terms of the entire country rather than the respondent’s own beliefs (ex. asking if the country is ready for a woman president)
-asking respondents for a different kind of evaluation—rather than asking whether they like or dislike candidates, pollsters ask whether they would sit down for coffee with them
Can attempts to account for the social desirability bias by rephrasing a question introduce new biases?
YES
ex. a survey question designed to ask about a sensitive topic might begin with “Some people have argued that…” However, this phrase can produce higher levels of respondent agreement regardless of what is being asked
When can inaccurate or outlandish survey results be generated?
-respondents not taking surveys seriously (ex. giving quick, thoughtless responses to end the interview quicker)
-respondents forming opinions based on whatever considerations come to mind (can lead to misperceptions)
Where might misinformation result from in survey responses?
-respondents using considerations that don’t actually provide much info about the topic at hand
-politicians making polarizing or extreme statements about an issue, or just yapping about it too much
-many supposed facts are actually “contested truths”: aka topics/issues where different interpretations of the truth are present
When do respondents’ ability to express specific opinions , as well as the accuracy of their opinions, rise?
if the survey questions have something to do with their everyday life
ex. Americans are more likely to have an accurate sense of the state of the economy than of the military situation in Afghanistan (this is magnified as the respondent considers the economy a more salient issue)
When are survey results most likely to be accurate?
when they are based on a simple, easily understood question about a topic familiar to the people being surveyed, and when the survey designers have worked to account for problems in measuring public opinion
you can be even more confident if multiple surveys addressing the same topic in different ways and at different times produce similar findings
When are survey results most likely to be INaccurate?
if a single survey asks about a complex, unfamiliar topic
When are bad times to conduct surveys, as they will produce inaccurate results?
-immediately after an event (ex. survey on gun control taken immediately after a school shooting)
-well in advance of the time when the public actually has to act on their preferences (ex. poll about the 2022 midterms taken 2 years prior)
When is the best time to conduct a preelection poll (most accurate predictions)?
right before an election
How do the ability of preelection polls to predict election outcomes depend on the closeness of the race?
results could change if assumptions about turnout are even slightly off
How have new technologies affected surveys?
made them cheaper and easier, allowing groups to poll more often and ask a much wider range of questions
For a sample to be accurate, what must be true?
it has to be as random as possible
It may seem easy for representatives to simply comply with demands expressed in their constituents’ survey responses, but what stands in the way?
poll results are highly sensitive to question wording, timing, and other factors, making it hard to interpret even seemingly clear findings
ex. constituents’ support of immigration reform depends on what the reforms look like, which may not be covered in the survey
Ideological polarization
sharp differences in Americans’ overall ideas of the size and scope of government
Many commentators describe politics in America as highly conflictual, with most Americans holding either liberal or conservative points of view and identifying with one of the two major parties. Is polarization as strong as these commentators think?
not really: while data confirms that Americans disagree on important policy questions, it is too simple to think in terms of a sharply polarized America
-typologies are designed to identify disagreements—there are many other issues on which there is consensus among the American public
-only a small fraction of the population holds extreme liberal or conservative positions
-self-professed moderates may hold relatively extreme preferences, and those who call themselves liberal/conservative may not think that way on all issues
How can surveys truly reflect what Americans think and what they want from government?
by collecting data on specific policy questions rather than broad judgments about the liberal or conservative nature of American public opinion
Why do political scientists talk so much about high levels of polarization in contemporary America?
mostly refers to how most policy conflicts divide Americans among party lines. the difference between America now and a generation ago is not that we disagree more but that most of our disagreements have Democrats on one side and Republicans on the other—and we are more likely to dislike people who affiliate with the other party
What do the majority of Americans think about the government?
that it is not run for the benefit of all the people and that government programs are usually wasteful and inefficient
Trust in government has declined a ton, likely due to times of economic or other hardship (mid-2000s to now). How does this affect government?
-makes it harder for elected officials to enact new policies (less trust = more negative evaluations from citizens)
-makes citizens less likely to vote for incumbents
-raises questions about future of democracy in America
Trust in government has a partisan cast. Explain what this means
people are more likely to express trust in the government when someone from their party is serving as president
How is it that Americans disapprove of government overall but give relatively high ratings for many government programs?
-low trust in government simply doesn’t preclude people from approving of specific government programs
-asking about “the government” doesn’t have a human face on it. asking about “your representative” does
-polarized nature of today’s politics means high levels of distrust are almost a given, especially for citizens whose party ID differs from the president’s
bottom line: the downward trend in trust is not the result of people being increasingly unhappy with what government actually does
Policy mood
the level of public support for expanding the government’s role in society; whether the public wants government action on a specific issue
Trends in policy mood reflect a thermostatic model of public opinion. What does this mean?
policy changes in one direction tend to move opinion in the other
ex. liberal policy mood in 2020, Democrats enact liberal policies, policy mood shifts in conservative direction
Public opinion is often a moving target. What does this mean?
while some beliefs/preferences are stable over time, opinions about specific policies can change from year to year, month to month, or even day to day
How do surveys assess the public’s policy mood?
by asking citizens about specific policy issues and what they see as the top policy priorities facing the nation
What has consistently been ranked a top priority for Americans?
the state of the economy
Do Republicans and Democrats ever agree on which issues should be prioritized?
yes!
-concerns over jobs and social security are seen as important
-little cross-party difference in demand for political reform
How do policy priorities explain government inaction on some issues?
if an issue isn’t deemed a priority, it simply won’t be acted on
Public opinion remains highly relevant in American politics, yet government decisions don’t always align with the views of the majority. What does this say about the role of public opinion in policymaking?
this doesn’t mean that public opinion is irrelevant—just that the policy-making process is complex
It’s not always possible to please a majority of citizens. Politicians’ willingness to do so depends on what?
-whether the majority is organized into interest groups
-how much the politicians care about the issue (and the intensity of the opposition)
-most importantly, the details of their personal preferences and the views held by their constituents
How does the massive federal assistance to individuals/businesses during COVID speak to the influence of public opinion?
it was enacted largely because of public pressure for relief
How do recent failures in repealing Obamacare, enacting immigration reform, or passing new limits on gun ownership speak to the influence of public opinion?
they reflect a lack of public consensus about what the government should do. many Americans wanted policy change, but many were opposed, and even the supporters disagreed on what kinds of changes were best
inaction on these issues is exactly what to expect if public opinion is real and relevant to what happens in politics
Why should public opinion be significant to you?
it can tell what the federal government is going to do (or why it’s not doing what you think it should be doing)
How is public support a kind of political currency?
when elected officials have public support on their side, it makes it much easier to get things done
In many ways public opinion has become harder to measure and predict, despite many advances in technology and statistical sophistication. Why?
among other reasons, because it’s increasingly difficult to get a random, representative, and reliable sample of survey respondents in an age where most of us have cell phones but we block calls we don’t recognize (and we can’t be bothered to answer questions without some sort of incentive like a gift card)
