CHAPTER 4 Correlation Requires Variation Flashcards
What is required to learn about a correlation?
Variation in both variables of interest
Correlation cannot be established without observing variation in both the independent and dependent variables.
What is the common mistake people make when trying to establish correlations?
Selecting on the dependent variable
This occurs when only instances of the phenomenon occurring are examined, ignoring cases where it did not occur.
What are the four pieces of information needed to determine the correlation between oil production and autocracy?
- Number of autocracies that are major oil producers
- Number of democracies that are major oil producers
- Number of autocracies that are not major oil producers
- Number of democracies that are not major oil producers
What does it mean when we say ‘correlation requires variation’?
You must observe variation in both variables to determine correlation
Observing variation in only one variable is insufficient.
True or False: It is sufficient to examine only the instances of a phenomenon to establish a correlation.
False
This approach ignores the necessary variation in cases where the phenomenon does not occur.
What is the phrase used to describe the variable representing the phenomenon being forecasted or explained?
Dependent variable
What is the ‘10,000-hour rule’ proposed by Malcolm Gladwell?
It takes about 10,000 hours of serious practice to master any difficult skill
Gladwell suggests that this practice is a predictor of great success.
What flaw exists in Gladwell’s argument regarding the 10,000-hour rule?
He does not consider non-great achievers’ practice habits
This lack of data on non-achievers prevents establishing a correlation.
What does the term ‘selecting on the dependent variable’ imply?
Choosing cases based on the value of the dependent variable rather than observing variation
In the context of studying financial crises, what mistake do researchers often make?
They examine only previous crises without considering instances where crises did not occur.
What is the implication of studying only successful individuals when trying to understand success?
It fails to provide information about those who are not successful
This creates a biased perspective on the factors contributing to success.
Fill in the blank: Correlation requires _______.
Variation
What is a potential issue with claiming a correlation based on selective examples?
It may mislead conclusions due to lack of comprehensive data
Conclusions drawn from selective examples may not represent the larger population.
What is the problem with the claim that drinking a specific beverage caused illness in a group of sick individuals?
The beverage was consumed by both sick and healthy individuals
This demonstrates the importance of variation in establishing a correlation.
What is the significance of observing both autocracies and democracies in assessing the correlation with oil production?
It allows for a comprehensive understanding of the correlation
Observing only one type would lead to misleading conclusions.
True or False: Gladwell’s evidence supports a definitive causal link between practice and success.
False
Correlation must be established before causality can be considered.
What is the 10,000-hour rule?
The idea that extensive practice leads to success, though it is unsubstantiated by data.
Who founded the Parents Music Resource Center (PMRC)?
Tipper Gore, among others.
What was the PMRC’s primary concern?
The perceived inappropriate content of rock music.
What did the PMRC demand for albums with explicit lyrics?
Warning labels.
Which song was cited by the PMRC as an example of ‘porn rock’?
Bruce Springsteen’s ‘I’m on Fire’.
What were some claims made by Jeff Ling regarding rock music?
It encourages suicide, violent revenge, and sexual violence.
What is the structure of Ling’s argument against rock music?
- Some young people behave regrettably. 2. Those young people listen to terrible rock music. 3. The music must cause the behavior.
What did Fredric Wertham testify about comic books in 1954?
He claimed they contributed to moral confusion and violence among youth.
What did the U.S. Department of Education and Secret Service find about school shooters?
Many felt bullied and had difficulty coping with losses.
What is a key finding about school shooters’ behavior prior to attacks?
Most displayed concerning behavior indicating a need for help.
What did the 2018 commission report about character education and school shooters?
Many experienced social isolation.
True or False: Individuals diagnosed with mental illness are more likely to commit gun crimes.
False.
What is a significant issue in the analysis of youth violence according to the text?
Correlation requires variation.
What percentage of students in public schools do not graduate on time?
Almost a third.
According to the Gates Foundation study, what was the main reason for dropping out of high school?
Classes were not interesting.
What percentage of high school dropouts reported finding school uninteresting?
47 percent.
What did researchers at Indiana University find about high school students’ boredom?
66 percent reported being bored at least every day in class.
What problem does the Gates Foundation’s research have?
It lacks variation in comparing dropouts to non-dropouts.
What did Robert Pape study regarding suicide terrorism?
The motivations behind suicide terrorism in relation to foreign occupation.
What correlation did Pape suggest exists between foreign troops and suicide attacks?
The presence of foreign troops leads to more suicide attacks.
What does correlation require in studying suicide attacks?
Variation between occupied and non-occupied countries.
What did a study find about the likelihood of suicide attacks in occupied countries compared to non-occupied ones?
Less than 1 percentage point difference.
What historical examples illustrate the lack of correlation between occupation and suicide terrorism?
British occupation of Ireland and U.S. troops in Germany, Japan, South Korea, etc.
What is a common mistake in analyzing suicide attacks?
Selecting on the dependent variable.
What mistake does the text illustrate regarding correlation?
Looking for correlation without variation can lead to misleading conclusions.
This is exemplified by the analysis of suicide attacks in the 1980s.
What was a significant finding about suicide attacks recorded by 1986?
Thirty-three attacks and over one thousand deaths were primarily by Hezbollah against American, Israeli, and French targets in Lebanon.
What incorrect conclusion might one draw from the data on suicide attacks in 1986?
That Islam was the key correlate to suicide attacks due to the attackers being Muslim.
This ignores the broader context of Muslim-majority countries without similar violence.
What was the first suicide attack by a secular group mentioned in the text?
The attack by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (Tamil Tigers) in 1987 in Sri Lanka.
What does the text suggest about the organization of certain professions?
It can lead to selecting on the dependent variable, as doctors primarily see sick patients.
What correlation is questioned regarding bulging discs and back pain?
There is little evidence that bulging discs are correlated with back pain when considering healthy individuals.
Studies show that a significant number of people without back pain also have bulging discs.
What is a common institutional response following disasters?
Conducting post-mortem analyses to understand what went wrong or right.
What is a critical mistake in post-mortem analyses according to the text?
Focusing on what could have been done differently with hindsight rather than assessing decisions based on prior knowledge.
What fictional example is used to illustrate post-mortem analysis errors?
A high school band director analyzing competition failures after scheduling intensive rehearsals.
What is the main error made by the band director in the post-mortem?
Assuming that intensive rehearsals are the cause of poor performance without considering variation in outcomes.
What conclusion can be drawn from the rehearsal strategy data provided?
There is a strong positive correlation between extra rehearsals and performing well in competitions.
What disaster is used as a case study in post-mortem analysis?
The Challenger space shuttle explosion in 1986.
What crucial factor did engineers predict prior to the Challenger launch?
That cold weather would lead to catastrophic failure due to O-ring seals not being certified for low temperatures.
What was the conclusion of the Rogers Commission regarding NASA’s decision-making?
Failures in communication and management led to ignoring valid engineering concerns.
What is required to assess whether launching the Challenger was a reasonable decision?
Understanding the correlation between scientific concerns and the success of shuttle launches.
What essential question should post-mortem commissions ask regarding engineering concerns?
Whether scientifically valid concerns had been raised prior to successful launches.
What are some scientifically valid concerns raised by engineers prior to successful space shuttle launches?
Concerns about complex and dangerous undertakings
Engineers may raise valid concerns that are not necessarily correlated with launch success.
What triggered the financial crisis of 2008?
A crash in the U.S. subprime housing market
This crash had widespread effects across the global banking sector.
Which book by economists analyzed data on major financial crises over the last 800 years?
This Time Is Different by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff
The book aims to identify early warning indicators of financial crises.
What are some key indicators that precede financial crises according to Reinhart and Rogoff?
- Uncommonly large current account deficits
- Asset price bubbles
- Excessive borrowing
These indicators were present in the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis.
What was the U.S. current account deficit as a percentage of GDP in 2006?
Close to 7 percent
This was one of the factors leading up to the financial crisis.
What is a major flaw in Reinhart and Rogoff’s analysis of financial crises?
It does not account for variation in crises
Correlation requires understanding both when crises occur and when they do not.
What happened in the late 1990s that raises doubts about Reinhart and Rogoff’s conclusions?
The U.S. had early warning signs but no financial crisis occurred
The dot-com bubble burst but did not lead to a financial crisis.
What is the problem with seeking life advice from successful people?
Successful people may not know whether their decisions correlate with success
Their introspection lacks variation and may not provide reliable lessons.
What does ‘selecting on the dependent variable’ mean?
Examining only instances when the phenomenon of interest occurred
This approach does not allow for proper analysis of correlation.
What is a recommended practice to avoid looking for correlation without variation?
Consider filling in all four cells of a two-by-two table
This helps in visualizing the relationship between variables.
What quantitative technique is important for measuring correlations?
Regression
This technique is discussed in more detail in chapter 5.
Fill in the blank: Correlation requires _______.
[variation]
Without variation, establishing correlation is not possible.
True or False: Most top-performing schools have small student bodies.
True
This statement suggests a correlation but requires further analysis.
True or False: Married people are typically happier than unmarried people.
True
This statement implies a correlation that needs to be examined for variation.
What proportion of the world’s population has a college degree?
About 7 percent
This statistic is relevant when assessing correlations related to education and success.
What might be the correlation between dropping out of college and becoming a billionaire?
It is unclear without examining more data
The analysis should consider the variation in outcomes among college dropouts.
What is a potential consequence of only looking at successful college dropouts?
It may lead to a biased understanding of the correlation with success
This issue arises when ignoring the broader population of college attendees.
