CHAPTER 1 Thinking Clearly in a Data-Driven Age Flashcards
Why is learning to think clearly about quantitative information important?
It helps in making better decisions in personal and professional life and being a more informed citizen.
What does Eric Schmidt claim about the creation of data in the contemporary world?
As much new data is created every two days as from the beginning of time through the year 2003.
What is the focus of thinking clearly in a data-driven age?
Staying focused on ideas and questions rather than technical details.
What is often overlooked in traditional statistics and quantitative reasoning classes?
Conceptual understanding and clear thinking about the purpose of data analysis.
What is the consequence of technicality overshadowing clear thinking in data analysis?
Students miss the forest for the trees and fail to engage deeply with the material.
What key questions should you ask when analyzing data?
- What features of the world are you comparing? * What questions can different comparisons answer? * Do you have the right question and comparison for your problem? * Why might a convincing answer be misleading? * How can creative approaches provide a more informative answer?
What is the belief about technique in relation to conceptual understanding?
Technique without conceptual understanding is a recipe for disaster.
Is prior exposure to data analysis necessary for this book?
No, the book requires no prior exposure to data analysis, statistics, or quantitative methods.
What is one outcome of learning the skills in this book?
Becoming a more sophisticated consumer and producer of quantitative information.
What does Ethan’s story about Abe illustrate?
The importance of understanding quantitative evidence and advocating for oneself.
What two rates characterize the effectiveness of a diagnostic test?
- False negative rate * False positive rate
What was misleading about the doctors’ statement regarding Abe’s positive blood test?
They did not provide information on the false positive and false negative rates.
What did Ethan discover about the false positive rate of Abe’s celiac test?
The false positive rate was 50 percent.
What was the best estimate of the likelihood of Abe having celiac disease given the test results?
About 1 in 1,000.
What is a counterfactual?
A special kind of claim that considers what could have happened under different circumstances.
What factors should be considered when organizing protests?
- Non-violent strategy versus violent strategy * Personal ethics * Evidence on costs and benefits of each approach
What do empirical studies suggest about non-violent versus violent protests?
Governments more often make concessions to fully non-violent groups.
What is a potential issue with comparing non-violent and violent protests?
Public opinion may affect government concessions, complicating causal interpretations.
True or False: Non-violent protests are always more effective than violent protests.
False.
What must be avoided to think clearly about data?
Mistaking correlation for causation.
What is the importance of confronting evidence that contradicts beliefs?
It helps to think clearly and make informed decisions.
What is the risk associated with violent protests compared to non-violent protests?
Violent protests are more likely to provoke government repression.
Fill in the blank: The combination of testing positive on an inaccurate test and testing negative on an accurate test can lead to a conclusion that is _______.
misleading.
What is the broken-windows theory?
A theory proposing that policing focused on minimizing disorder can reduce violent crime.
Proposed by George L. Kelling and James Q. Wilson in 1982.
What did Kelling and Wilson suggest about public order?
Its absence sets in motion a vicious cycle leading to increased crime.
They argued that a lack of public order contributes to criminal invasion.
What was the impact of broken-windows theory on New York City policing in the 1990s?
It became an integral part of law enforcement strategy, focusing on minor offenses.
Rudy Giuliani emphasized this approach in his 1998 speech.
What was the percentage increase in misdemeanor arrests in New York City during the 1990s?
70 percent.
During this time, violent crime decreased by more than 56 percent.
What did Kelling and Sousa find regarding misdemeanor arrests and violent crime?
Higher misdemeanor arrests correlated with a decrease in violent crime.
They calculated one less violent crime for every 28 additional misdemeanor arrests.
What is the concept of reversion to the mean?
The tendency for crime levels to revert to their baseline over time, regardless of policing changes.
This can skew interpretations of crime data.
How did Harcourt and Ludwig challenge Kelling and Sousa’s conclusions?
They found that precincts focusing more on misdemeanor arrests experienced an increase in violent crime.
This contradicted the broken-windows theory.
What is a critical flaw in relying solely on quantitative analysis?
It can lead to incorrect conclusions if not paired with clear thinking.
Misinterpretations can distort important decisions.
What challenges arise from unreliable expert analysis?
Identifying trustworthy expert opinions and knowing what to believe.
Expertise does not guarantee clear thinking or accurate conclusions.
What are the four parts of the framework provided in the book?
- Establish shared language
- Determine if a statistical relationship is genuine
- Assess if the relationship reflects causation
- Incorporate quantitative information into decision making.
What is the relationship between quantitative skills and clear thinking?
Quantitative skills without clear thinking can be dangerous.
It is essential to combine both for effective decision-making.
What should readers expect to notice as they internalize clear thinking principles?
They will recognize basic mistakes in evidence interpretation across various contexts.
This includes news, scientific studies, and everyday conversations.
Fill in the blank: The broken-windows theory was inspired by a program in _______.
Newark, New Jersey.
True or False: Evidence-based arguments like Kelling and Sousa’s have been universally accepted as correct.
False.
Their conclusions have been challenged by other scholars.
What is the key takeaway regarding the use of data in decision-making?
Data and quantitative tools must be complemented by clear thinking.
What is the focus of the article ‘The Next Phase of Quality of Life: Creating a More Civil City’?
Creating a more civil city
Who are the authors of the article ‘Carrots, Sticks, and Broken Windows’?
Hope Corman and H. Naci Mocan
In what journal was ‘Carrots, Sticks, and Broken Windows’ published?
Journal of Law and Economics
What year was ‘Carrots, Sticks, and Broken Windows’ published?
2005
What is the main topic of the Civic Report by George L. Kelling and William H. Sousa, Jr.?
Impact of New York City’s Police Reforms
What type of report is ‘Do Police Matter?’ classified as?
Civic Report
What year was the report ‘Do Police Matter?’ published?
2001
Who are the authors of ‘Broken Windows: New Evidence from New York City and a Five-City Social Experiment’?
Bernard E. Harcourt and Jens Ludwig
In which law review was ‘Broken Windows: New Evidence’ published?
University of Chicago Law Review
What volume of the University of Chicago Law Review contains ‘Broken Windows: New Evidence’?
Volume 73
What is the page range for ‘Broken Windows: New Evidence’ in the University of Chicago Law Review?
271–320
What error is noted in the published version of ‘Broken Windows: New Evidence’?
Misprinted sign in the key table
Where can the correction for the misprinted sign in ‘Broken Windows: New Evidence’ be found?
Errata, 74 U. Chi. L. Rev. 407 (2007)
