Chapter 4 - Correctional Services Flashcards
why asses risk
identify those likely to commit crimes
determine the aspects of a sentence
create a treatment plan based on the person’s needs
see if risk is lessened
see if someone is ready to be released
keeping someone for public safety
recidivism
comming a new criminal offense following previous detection or release
types of recidivism
violent, non-violent, sexual, and general
violent recidivism
any conviction for a person involved offence (including sexual offences) with the potential for physical or psychological harm
nonviolent recidivism
technical breeches – violating conditions of parole, theft, break and enter
sexual recidivism
committing new sex offences – contact or no contact
general recidivism
any kind of new crime
how is recidivism measured
criminal reports
risk assesment is used for
recidivism prevention - * Purpose of risk assessment is to prevent new crimes from occurring
* Risk assessment to inform risk management
- Recidivism isn’t a foregone conclusion
steps in risk assesment
- use of multiple information sources
- asses multiple domains of functioning
- use of multiple assesment methods
- evaluate the credibility of information sources
- assess static and dynamic risk factors
- assesment of strengths and protective factors
static risk variables
variable that tend not to change and are frequently historical in nature
- age, employment, prior offenses
protective factors
Variables that are linked to positive, healthy, and noncriminal outcomes (e.g., getting a job, desisting from crime, maintaining a residence, having positive friends).
- Positive coping, empathy, etc.
dynamic variables
variables that have the potential to change from treatment, experience, or other change agents
what is used to asses protective factors
17-item protective factors tool developed in The Netherlands
Structured Professional Judgment tool (SPJ)
Rate the items (0, 1, 2) but don’t sum them to generate numeric scores; look at item configuration to generate protection level of low, medium, or high
- People might sum these items for research purposes
challenges in risk assesment
low base rate
low base rate
Rare events are hard to predict
Some forms of recidivism are quite rare (e.g., sexual murder) while others are more frequent (e.g., property crime)
- Base rate of homicide for risk assessment in correctional services is very low
- Since homicide is so rare – you would asses their risk for general recidivism
false positive
prediction of crime but didn’t happen
true positive
prediction of crime and did happen
true negative
no prediction but crime did happen
false negative
no prediction and crime did not happen
point biserial correlation
linear correlaion (-1-1)
standarfdized mean difference
recidivist vs non recidivist (+/- 2.0)
area under the curve
predicitive accuracy
four generations of recidividm risk assesment
unstructured clinical assesment, static variable measures, dynamic + static variable measure, LSI-R risk category
unstructured clinical judgement
gut feeling index
conduct interviews, review files, etc
make general assessments or global predictions - in my professional opinion
strengths of first generation approach
can explore many different aspects of client’s situation
can reflect unique circumstances
tailor it to a client’s needs
weaknesses of first generation approach
subject to too much personal bias - can lead to overprediction - false positives!!!
- subjective intuitive gut feelings
- decision rules not observable
overlook or overemphasize info
overreliance on 1st generation - problematic and inhibits the advancement of knowledge
not systematic or effective
too much bias
AUC = about half the time = small effect size
1st gen RA approach
unstructured clinical judgement
2nd gen RA approach
static variable measures
2nd gen RA - static variable
objective, empirically based static RA instruements - Statistical Information on Recidividm scale
static actuarial or empirically actuarial tools
ex: number of break and enters - high frequency = high risk
no clinician
use info readily availible
actuarial
Items (predictors) are statistically associated with increased recidivism
Individual items may be weighted differently
strengths of 2nd gen RA
Objective and accountable
Cover important static (historical) risk factors
Clearly articulated decision rules
weaknesses of 2nd gen RA
Consist of static predictors only
Not capable of measuring change
Item weights may not generalize – does it generalize to a provincial tool? Federal tool?
Atheoretical
Can get weird combinations of predictors sometimes
SIR Scale
Nuffield (1982) developed the SIR using 15 variables
Example of a static actuarial tool
Weighted score on 15 static items (scores range: -27 to +30)
Grouped into 5 categories/risk groups – returning to custody within 3 years of release
Every male non-Indigenous client in CSC has the SIR scale rated on them at intake
statistics of sir
3,267 parolees released in 1983-1984
Followed up for 3 years
General recidivism: 48.7%
Violent recidivism: 9.8%
Excellent predictive accuracy for general recidivism (r = .42; AUC = .74)
Medium accuracy for violent recidivism (r = .15, which converts to d = .50 or AUC = .64)
criminogenic needs
crime causing factors, dynamic risk factors that need to be addressed in treatment to reduce recidivism
3rd generation RA
static and dynamic risk items informed by theory and research (actuarial or SPJ)
intergration of assesment
criminogenic needs
scores need to drive treatment
strengths of RA 3rd
Assess a much wider range of variables
Consist of both static and dynamic variables
Sensitive to change as a result of “maturation” or effective programming
Theoretically based rather than empirically driven