Chapter 2: the scientific methods

Question 1

The scientific method

Answer 1

that method used by scientists to

• study a scientific problem or
• to answer a scientific question,
• draw conclusions, and
• publish results

Question 2

The scientific method involves at least the following steps:

Answer 2

1. define a problem
2. explain problem
3. predict based on explanation
4. Perform tests or experiments to see if the explanation is valid
5. Communication; publication or presentation of results

Question 3

Scientific research

Answer 3

is the most important way to determine

• the causes,
• trends, and
• possible solutions to climate change

if it is determined that climate change is heading in the wrong direction and will need proper action.

Question 4

The scientific method may begin with

Answer 4

• an idea before any information is collected.

It may be the idea that something may exist which has not been thought of before; an original idea.

Question 5

After an idea is defined or formulated

Answer 5

the scientist begins to

• collect data, information, or
• to test, experiment, and make observations.

Question 6

hypothesis or theory

Answer 6

The collection of data may result in an original idea and this idea

Question 7

Hypothesis

Answer 7

a formal, specific statement of some unproven assumption that tentatively explains certain facts or phenomenon.

Question 8

Theory

Answer 8

when the hypothesis has been tested with considerable evidence, it becomes a theory.

Question 9

Hypotheses and theories are usually presented at

Answer 9

professional scientific meetings, published in peer‐reviewed scientific journals, and discussed with colleagues.

Question 10

peer‐review process

Answer 10

• This process allows the scientist to receive feedback from peers
  
  • Meetings, journals, and discussions
• and to refine their ideas or to change them
  
  • Meetings, journals, and discussions provide:
    
    • new ideas or
    • information to the scientist

Then the theory is revised if necessary.

Question 11

Designing Experiments to conduct research can work nicely if

Answer 11

we have a simple little system

Question 12

Designing Experiments to conduct research can work nicely if we have a simple little system, then we can

Answer 12

easily create hypotheses, test them, and make conclusions.

Question 13

earth system

Answer 13

the atmosphere, the oceans, and the ice sheets etc., form a huge, interconnected system

Question 14

why is it necessary to conduct a measure of critical inductive research

Answer 14

the atmosphere, the oceans, and the ice sheets etc., form a huge, interconnected system (known as earth system) with numerous complex feedbacks. We cannot perturb this system to observe what happens

Question 15

inductive research

Answer 15

building a new theory based on observations

Question 16

It is therefore necessary to conduct a measure of critical inductive research (building a new theory based on observations). We must

Answer 16

make observations of the past and present, analyse trends and identify anomalies.

Question 17

Inductive Research

Answer 17

In this procedure “observation” comes first. The hypothesis and then the theory arise from the observations.

• The validity of the theory depends on its modification from future observations.

Question 18

Inductive reasoning goes like this:

Answer 18

Gravity acts on you and I, and paperclips, and hand grenades. Therefore, “gravity acts on all objects”.

Question 19

inductive reasoning graph

Answer 19

Question 20

deductive reasoning graph

Answer 20

Question 21

Deductive Research

Answer 21

• begins with a “proposed theory” and
• the investigation consists of an attempt to find observations and
• make experiments which might confirm the theory.

Deductive reasoning sounds something like this: “Gravity acts on all objects”. Therefore, gravity acts on you and I, and paperclips, and hand grenades.

Question 22

Inductive Approach to Climate Change

Answer 22

The temperatures are rising, sea is rising, ice is melting, ozone layer is dissipating. Therefore, “the climate is changing”

Question 23

Primary and Secondary Data

Answer 23

• Primary Data –
  
  • Data generated by the investigator.
  • It includes data
    
    • collected by the investigator using instruments in the field,
    • from laboratory experiments,
    • field investigations or
    • questionnaires etc.
• Secondary Data –
  
  • Data used by researchers after being
    
    • collected,
    • quality controlled, and
    • compiled elsewhere, usually in digital format.

Question 24

Climate Data Types:

Answer 24

• Instrumental Measurements (observed data)
• Reanalysis Climate Data
• Downscaled Climate Data
• Proxy Climate Data

Question 25

Instrumental Measurements (observed data)

Answer 25

• best standard,
• aren’t enough of them for truly satisfactory science.
  
  • Large areas of the world have poor data coverage for the pre‐satellite era.
  • The same is true for some ESSENTIAL DATA:
    
    • precipitation,
    • air pressure,
    • winds,
    • humidity and
    • sea ice
• For example, Observed data on global scales are constantly monitored to :
  
  • update and
  • assess temperature (and other variables) trends in real time.

Question 26

Reanalysis Climate Data

Answer 26

an analysis performed with a fixed NWP model and data assimilation method that assimilates quality‐controlled observational data over an

• extended time period, (several decades), to create a long‐period climate record.
• covers the entire globe (Earth’s surface to above the stratosphere)

Question 27

Climate reanalysis can provide

Answer 27

a consistent description of the atmosphere over an extended time period

Question 28

Reanalysis products are used extensively in

Answer 28

climate research and services, including:

• monitoring and comparing current climate with those of the past,
• identifying the causes of climate variations and change, and
• preparing climate predictions.

Question 29

Reanalysis Climate Data graph

Answer 29

Question 30

Downscaled Climate Data

Answer 30

term used to describe the various methods used to translate the climate projections from coarse resolution GCMs to finer resolutions deemed more useful for assessing impacts

Question 31

Downscaled Climate Data importance

Answer 31

The climate change information required for many impact studies is of a spatial scale much finer than that provided by GCM or regional climate models (RCMs).

• However, many important applications require the equivalent of point climate observations and

• are highly sensitive to fine‐scale climate variations that are
  
  • parameterized in coarse‐scale models

Question 32

Downscaled climate data graph

Answer 32

Question 33

Proxy Climate Data

Answer 33

To investigate climate variations for periods when no instrumental data are available, we need to extract climate information from archives in the nature

Question 34

Natural archives are for example

Answer 34

• tree rings,
• lake sediments,
• ice cores and
• ocean sediments on the continental shelves.

Question 35

Natural archives contain

Answer 35

various indirect information of past climate variations, which are called climate proxy data

• records taken from proxy sources extend climate understanding beyond the 140 year instrumental record
• proxy data cant show exactly how climate varied in the past,
  
  • can give reasonably good approximations.