Chapter 2: the scientific methods Flashcards
The scientific method
that method used by scientists to
- study a scientific problem or
- to answer a scientific question,
- draw conclusions, and
- publish results
The scientific method involves at least the following steps:
- define a problem
- explain problem
- predict based on explanation
- Perform tests or experiments to see if the explanation is valid
- Communication; publication or presentation of results
Scientific research
is the most important way to determine
- the causes,
- trends, and
- possible solutions to climate change
if it is determined that climate change is heading in the wrong direction and will need proper action.
The scientific method may begin with
- an idea before any information is collected.
It may be the idea that something may exist which has not been thought of before; an original idea.
After an idea is defined or formulated
the scientist begins to
- collect data, information, or
- to test, experiment, and make observations.
hypothesis or theory
The collection of data may result in an original idea and this idea
Hypothesis
a formal, specific statement of some unproven assumption that tentatively explains certain facts or phenomenon.
Theory
when the hypothesis has been tested with considerable evidence, it becomes a theory.
Hypotheses and theories are usually presented at
professional scientific meetings, published in peer‐reviewed scientific journals, and discussed with colleagues.
peer‐review process
- This process allows the scientist to receive feedback from peers
- Meetings, journals, and discussions
- and to refine their ideas or to change them
- Meetings, journals, and discussions provide:
- new ideas or
- information to the scientist
- Meetings, journals, and discussions provide:
Then the theory is revised if necessary.
Designing Experiments to conduct research can work nicely if
we have a simple little system
Designing Experiments to conduct research can work nicely if we have a simple little system, then we can
easily create hypotheses, test them, and make conclusions.
earth system
the atmosphere, the oceans, and the ice sheets etc., form a huge, interconnected system
why is it necessary to conduct a measure of critical inductive research
the atmosphere, the oceans, and the ice sheets etc., form a huge, interconnected system (known as earth system) with numerous complex feedbacks. We cannot perturb this system to observe what happens
inductive research
building a new theory based on observations
It is therefore necessary to conduct a measure of critical inductive research (building a new theory based on observations). We must
make observations of the past and present, analyse trends and identify anomalies.
Inductive Research
In this procedure “observation” comes first. The hypothesis and then the theory arise from the observations.
- The validity of the theory depends on its modification from future observations.
Inductive reasoning goes like this:
Gravity acts on you and I, and paperclips, and hand grenades. Therefore, “gravity acts on all objects”.
inductive reasoning graph
deductive reasoning graph
Deductive Research
- begins with a “proposed theory” and
- the investigation consists of an attempt to find observations and
- make experiments which might confirm the theory.
Deductive reasoning sounds something like this: “Gravity acts on all objects”. Therefore, gravity acts on you and I, and paperclips, and hand grenades.
Inductive Approach to Climate Change
The temperatures are rising, sea is rising, ice is melting, ozone layer is dissipating. Therefore, “the climate is changing”
Primary and Secondary Data
- Primary Data –
- Data generated by the investigator.
- It includes data
- collected by the investigator using instruments in the field,
- from laboratory experiments,
- field investigations or
- questionnaires etc.
- Secondary Data –
- Data used by researchers after being
- collected,
- quality controlled, and
- compiled elsewhere, usually in digital format.
- Data used by researchers after being
Climate Data Types:
- Instrumental Measurements (observed data)
- Reanalysis Climate Data
- Downscaled Climate Data
- Proxy Climate Data
