Chapter 2: the scientific methods Flashcards

1
Q

The scientific method

A

that method used by scientists to

  • study a scientific problem or
  • to answer a scientific question,
  • draw conclusions, and
  • publish results
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2
Q

The scientific method involves at least the following steps:

A
  1. define a problem
  2. explain problem
  3. predict based on explanation
  4. Perform tests or experiments to see if the explanation is valid
  5. Communication; publication or presentation of results
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3
Q

Scientific research

A

is the most important way to determine

  • the causes,
  • trends, and
  • possible solutions to climate change

if it is determined that climate change is heading in the wrong direction and will need proper action.

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4
Q

The scientific method may begin with

A
  • an idea before any information is collected.

It may be the idea that something may exist which has not been thought of before; an original idea.

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5
Q

After an idea is defined or formulated

A

the scientist begins to

  • collect data, information, or
  • to test, experiment, and make observations.
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6
Q

hypothesis or theory

A

The collection of data may result in an original idea and this idea

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7
Q

Hypothesis

A

a formal, specific statement of some unproven assumption that tentatively explains certain facts or phenomenon.

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8
Q

Theory

A

when the hypothesis has been tested with considerable evidence, it becomes a theory.

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9
Q

Hypotheses and theories are usually presented at

A

professional scientific meetings, published in peer‐reviewed scientific journals, and discussed with colleagues.

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10
Q

peer‐review process

A
  • This process allows the scientist to receive feedback from peers
    • Meetings, journals, and discussions
  • and to refine their ideas or to change them
    • Meetings, journals, and discussions provide:
      • new ideas or
      • information to the scientist

Then the theory is revised if necessary.

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11
Q

Designing Experiments to conduct research can work nicely if

A

we have a simple little system

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12
Q

Designing Experiments to conduct research can work nicely if we have a simple little system, then we can

A

easily create hypotheses, test them, and make conclusions.

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13
Q

earth system

A

the atmosphere, the oceans, and the ice sheets etc., form a huge, interconnected system

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14
Q

why is it necessary to conduct a measure of critical inductive research

A

the atmosphere, the oceans, and the ice sheets etc., form a huge, interconnected system (known as earth system) with numerous complex feedbacks. We cannot perturb this system to observe what happens

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15
Q

inductive research

A

building a new theory based on observations

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16
Q

It is therefore necessary to conduct a measure of critical inductive research (building a new theory based on observations). We must

A

make observations of the past and present, analyse trends and identify anomalies.

17
Q

Inductive Research

A

In this procedure “observation” comes first. The hypothesis and then the theory arise from the observations.

  • The validity of the theory depends on its modification from future observations.
18
Q

Inductive reasoning goes like this:

A

Gravity acts on you and I, and paperclips, and hand grenades. Therefore, “gravity acts on all objects”.

19
Q

inductive reasoning graph

20
Q

deductive reasoning graph

21
Q

Deductive Research

A
  • begins with a “proposed theory” and
  • the investigation consists of an attempt to find observations and
  • make experiments which might confirm the theory.

Deductive reasoning sounds something like this: “Gravity acts on all objects”. Therefore, gravity acts on you and I, and paperclips, and hand grenades.

22
Q

Inductive Approach to Climate Change

A

The temperatures are rising, sea is rising, ice is melting, ozone layer is dissipating. Therefore, “the climate is changing”

23
Q

Primary and Secondary Data

A
  • Primary Data –
    • Data generated by the investigator.
    • It includes data
      • collected by the investigator using instruments in the field,
      • from laboratory experiments,
      • field investigations or
      • questionnaires etc.
  • Secondary Data –
    • Data used by researchers after being
      • collected,
      • quality controlled, and
      • compiled elsewhere, usually in digital format.
24
Q

Climate Data Types:

A
  • Instrumental Measurements (observed data)
  • Reanalysis Climate Data
  • Downscaled Climate Data
  • Proxy Climate Data
25
Instrumental Measurements (observed data)
* best standard, * aren't enough of them for truly satisfactory science. * Large areas of the world have poor data coverage for the pre‐satellite era. * The same is true for some ESSENTIAL DATA: * precipitation, * air pressure, * winds, * humidity and * sea ice * For example, Observed data on global scales are constantly monitored to : * update and * assess temperature (and other variables) trends in real time.
26
Reanalysis Climate Data
an analysis performed with a fixed NWP model and data assimilation method that assimilates quality‐controlled observational data over an * extended time period, (several decades), to create a long‐period climate record. * covers the entire globe (Earth’s surface to above the stratosphere)
27
Climate reanalysis can provide
a consistent description of the atmosphere over an extended time period
28
Reanalysis products are used extensively in
climate research and services, including: * monitoring and comparing current climate with those of the past, * identifying the causes of climate variations and change, and * preparing climate predictions.
29
Reanalysis Climate Data graph
30
Downscaled Climate Data
term used to describe the various methods used to translate the climate projections from coarse resolution GCMs to finer resolutions deemed more useful for assessing impacts
31
Downscaled Climate Data importance
The climate change information required for many impact studies is of a _spatial scale much finer_ than that provided by GCM or regional climate models (RCMs). • However, many important applications require the equivalent of point climate observations and * are highly sensitive to fine‐scale climate variations that are * parameterized in coarse‐scale models
32
Downscaled climate data graph
33
Proxy Climate Data
To investigate climate variations for periods when no instrumental data are available, we need to extract climate information from archives in the nature
34
Natural archives are for example
* tree rings, * lake sediments, * ice cores and * ocean sediments on the continental shelves.
35
Natural archives contain
various indirect information of past climate variations, which are called climate proxy data * records taken from proxy sources extend climate understanding beyond the 140 year instrumental record * proxy data cant show exactly how climate varied in the past, * can give reasonably good approximations.