Chapter 15 Models Flashcards
What are the primary objectives of a health insurance model? (4)
- enable an actuary working for a health insurer to give appropriate advice to run insurer in a finanially sound manner.
- used in day-to-day work/running of company
- provide checks and controls of business
- judgment will be required on choosing model type and selection of inputs/assumptions.
Main uses of models (9)
- model office
- new business projections
- embedded value
- solvency
- takeovers
- pricing
- profit premium rates
- reserves
- costing and reserving for options
List the 4 different types of insurance company models (that differ in the policies that are included in the model).
Briefly descibe what each model does
(12)
-
Profit testing model
- projects expected cash and profit flows on policies from date of issue
- key for pricing/product design
- New business model
- projects all expected cash and profit flows arising from future sales of new business
- useful for assessing future capital requirements for new business/overall return on capital achieved from future sales
- Existing business model
- cash & profit flor projection from all existing business company has in force at particular time point
- important for assessing intrinsic value of existing business and testing solvency of company’s existing business
- Full model office
- sum of new and existing business model
- of fundamental importance in assessing impact of future maangement decisions on company’s future financial development
The main types of insurance models will either be used for
- profit testing/pricing
- new business modelling
- existing business modelling
- full model office
List the basic ‘building block models’ that each of these broader model types will require? (3)
- Policy liability model
- Expense model
- Asset model
Building blocks of different model types: in depth
Describe what we mean by the following ‘model building blocks’:
policy liability model (8)
expense model (2)
asset model (5)
Policy liability model
- projects cashflows
- can use standard software package
- should tailor to insurer’s product range (product types, charging structure, surrender values, options, model points)
- projects foward the in-force book of policies, depending on
- existing business, new business, transitions, lapses, renewals
- also requires total policy cashflows
Expense model
- used for build-up of total expenses
- fixed overheads may be modelled globally rather than summing up per-policy loadings
Asset model: varies in complexity depending on purpose of model
- for profit testing:
- often only future annual expected investment return
- for full model office:
- likely consider investment strategy with stochastic asset model…
- …considering individual asset returns and distribution for each class
State the requirements of a good model (14)
-
Valid for purpose
- deterministic vs stochastic
- includes all notable features of what is being modelled
-
Rigorous
- realistic results under wide range of circumstances
-
Well documented
- audit trail, key assumptions/approximation
-
Components used allow for material aspects being modelled
- structural components:
- parameters: only include param if results differs for different values of the parameter
-
Parameter values appropriate
- for particular business
- general environment, account for special features of company/economic environ
- Reflect risks being modelled
-
Sensible joing behaviour of variables eg:
- higher expense inflation => higher claims inflation
- higher claims rates => higher reinsurance recoveries
- higher inflation => higher (nominal) bond yields, equity returns?
-
Dynamic: assets and liabilities
- assumptions used to model assets/liabitlies must be consistent
- interactions between assets/liabilities modelled
-
Easy to
- Understand/appreciate model
- Communicate model
-
Output reasonable able to independent verify reaonableness
- Reconcile with supervisory valuation
- Reconcile with results from last run
- Ratio checks on future results
- Back of the envelope model
-
Output communicable
- to those who advice will be given to
- mentioning underlying method, critical assumptions
- Results displayed clearly
-
Not overly complex to
- understand
- explain/communicate
- expensive to run
- Able to develop/refine over time
List the specific/basic features of a health insurance model
(7)
- Projecting all cashflows that may arise and profit
- Allowance for supervisory reserves
- Allowance for solvency margin
- Multiple state modelling
- Allow for interactions/corellations between variables (dynamic links; joint sensible behaviour)
- Guarantees/options should be appropriately allowed for (typically using stochastic modelling)
- Use of suitable projection frequency/time period
Features of a health insurance model:
- Projecting cashflows/profit (15)
Projecting cashflows/profit
-
model must allow for all cashflows that may arise
- depends on contract’s nature, premium, benefit structure, discretionary benefits, options, renewal without further evidence
- supervisory reserves (allow for cashflows arising from supervisory need to hold reserves/solvency capital)
- increase in reserves is a contribution from free assets/negative cash flow and vice versa
- real cashflows
- premiums, investment income, payments to policyholders, commission to agents, expenses, tax
- notional cashflows
- fund establishment of reserves, by contributing money to reserves from cashflow or initially from company’s free assets
- this increase in reserves is negative from company’s perspective
- at maturity/claim, reserves will be released to help pay appropriate benefit => decrease in reserves positive
- supervisory solvency capital
- in addition to supervisory reserve, might be minimum supervisory solvency capital requirement to cover.
- policy cashflow might also need to fund establishment of solvency margin.
- increase in solvency margin is negative cash flow and vice versa
- required solvency margin included in value of reserves
Health insurance model: real vs notional cashflows, projecting cashflows/profit
What do we mean by ‘real cashflows’ vs ‘notional cashflows’ when modelling? (2)
Give examples of ‘real cashflows’
Give examples of ‘notional cashflows’
Real vs notional cashflows
- cashflows in the modelling exercise may either be real or notional
- for notional cashflows, there’s no ‘real exchange’ of funds which would occur in the real world t mimicl the cashflow in question
Real cashflows
- positive: premium income, investment returns
- negative: benefit payments, distribution remuneration, expenses, tax
Nomial cashflows
- positive: decrease in reserves/capital required
- negative: increase in reserves/capital required
Features of a health insurance model: multiple state modelling
Describe how this feeds into health insurance models (3)
Multiple State Modelling: for healthcare, need to project separately cash flows arising from different states, and reflect state transitions.
- healthy, incapacitated and not receiving benefits, and receiving benefits (by benefit level, if appropriate)
- used mainly for LTCI; cash flows depend on state.
Features of a health insurance model:
- allowing for interactions (2,5)
Cashflows need to allow for any interactions, particularly where assets and liabilities are being modelled together.
Dymaic model (asset/liability parts programmed to interact as in real life e.g.
- supervisory reserves consistent with projected investment conditions and company’s investment strategy, depending on current marketing conditions (e.g. conservative when financial position is poor)
Links are important
- for all models, but
- particularly for stochastic models, as variables are changing yearly and ongoing response need to occur automatically as each simulation is run
Features of a health insurance model:
- allowance for guarantees/options (3)
Where health options exist (e.g. option to effect a new term assurance contract without providing further evidence of health), the potential cashflows from such options need to be allowed for:
- Allow for effect on supervisory reserves
-
Allow for stochastic models/simulations
- …where appropriate, in order to assess impact of financial guarantees (e.g. minimum maturity guarantees)
Features of a health insurance model:
Frequency (3)
Period (5)
-
Frequency
- more frequent cashflows calculation => more reliable output
- less frequent cashflow calculation faster model is run
- usually monthly
-
Period
- Whole company models
- projection period chosen normally 3…5 years
- anything more expose to doubt, especially regarding level and mix of new business,
- but may usefully indicate significant trends, especially regarding solvency.
- Individual product cashflows for profit testing purposes:
- the projection period used will be the policy term.
- Whole company models
Model points
What is a model point (MP)? (3)
How do model points help in the modelling exercise? (2)
What is the most important thing to remember when choosing model points? (2)
MP is a
- data record fed as input into a model/modelling programme as inputs for existing business or new business…
- …will represent either a single policy or group of homogenous policies and their most important attributes
- …will contain most important characteristics of the policy
How model points help?
- underlying business comprises wide range of pols
- MPs group policies expected to produce similar results, which can then be scaled up, saving time, requiring less power
Most important thing about model points
- above all, MPs should be chosen so that they reflect adequately the distribution of business being modelled
- starting point will often be MPs used during previous iteration of this exercise, but this has been changing to ‘create new MPs’ each time due to increased computing power
Model points:
Choosing model points
In force business (3)
In force business
- above all, MPs should be chosen so that they reflect adequately the distribution of business being modelled
- group pols of same prod type which share acceptably similar characteristics, which will then contain average value for premiums, benefit guaranteed, etc
- group data to fit within computer constraints
- check validity: for block of pols=> compare grouped/ungrouped results
Model points:
Choosing model points
New business (3)
New business, consider
- above all, MPs should be chosen so that they reflect adequately the distribution of business being modelled
- Look at
- new business production
- trends in new business pols
- marketing changes
- planned new product launches
- imminent legislative/fiscal changes
- Influence on sales/persistency (for life and health care products)
- economic morale
- government provision of welfare
- tax
- political commitment (government offering alternatives)
- Business volumes
- Business mix
Modelling process: deterministic vs stochastic, key features
List the key features of the deterministic modelling process (3)
List the key features of the stochastic modelling process (3)
Key features of deterministic modelling process
- each parameter has a fixed value
- the model produces point estimates for the results
- possible to sensitivity test the results by running model and varying the parameter values
Key features of stochastic modelling process
- some parameters can vary and/or have their own statistical distribution
- stochastic model must be run many times using random samples of the distribution functions
- model produces results in the form of a probability distribution
Why is stochastic modelling more important for health insurance than for pure life insurance?
- for health and care, future experience/incidence ratio is far less easier to predict than for life insurance contracts
- the difficulty lies in the potential benefit amount, which may vary by
- policy-specified inflation (LTCI)
- medical inflation, (PMI),
- changes in accepted medical practices/protocols (PMI),
- …and other factors
State 5 advantages of deterministic models compared to stochastic models (5)
- Easier to explain (particularly to non-technical audience)
- Easier to interpret/understand
- Clearer which (economic) scenarios have been tested
- Easier to design
- Easier/shorter to run
Give examples of circumstances in which deterministic models might be appropriate (4)
-
If similar results possible as if stochastic projection were used.
- Possible outcomes form a symmetric distribution/information and information only required on the expectation, or
- specific scenario being tested within simple cashflow model
- Quick, independent test is required to see that the results of a stochastic projection are reasonable
- To provide upper and lower bounds
- To avoid nested stochastic model