Chapter 15 Flashcards
The Median Voter Theorem (MVT)
MVT – In 1 dimension with simple majority requirements & just two options, the candidate who wins the median voter wins the race.
Suffrage
The right to vote.
History of American Suffrage
- The right of suffrage has tended to expand over time as previously excluded groups gain the rights of citizens.
- Early Expansion: Elimination of Property Requirements.
- Emancipation 1860s.
- Extension of suffrage to women (19th Amd. 1920).
- Effective extension of suffrage to African Americans with the Voting Rights Act of 1965.
- Extension of suffrage to 18 year olds (26th Amd. 1971).
Who Votes in US Elections - General Trends
Those who are – wealthier, more educated, more interested, strong partisans, older (but not eldest) Americans.
Mobilization
refers to “getting out the vote” (GOTV) activities designed to increase turnout either in general, or for a particular group (ie urban poor, partisans, young people, etc).
Nonvoters - General Trends:
Poorer, less educated, young, and highly mobile Americans. Some argue that Democrats, some minorities, and men vote less.
Rational Nonvoters
because the cost of voting is nonzero, and the probability of swaying an election with a single vote is very close to zero, some argue that it is irrational to pay the costs of voting in a national election.
Registration
potential voters are required to register in their home state to verify their address, existence, and eligibility to vote.
The registration requirement is one of the biggest roadblocks to
Motor Voter Laws
allows one to get registered to vote at the same time as getting a driver’s license.
Retrospective Voting
voting on the basis of a candidates prior performance in office.
Economic Retrospective Voting
people vote on the basis of the economy, punishing or rewarding incumbents.
The Electoral College structure:
A state has as many electoral votes as MCs (ie 2 Senators + # of Representatives).
The Electoral College
The Electoral College is not without problems.
Mismatch between EC winner and popular vote (ie 2000 Election).
EC representatives could change their votes.
Winner take all format implies that one could win a general election with slim majorities in just a few states.
It seems unfair and is widely unpopular.
Main Point: Presidents are not elected by a popular vote!
Electoral Map Upshot
The Popular Vote is not the final word!
Some states are worth more than others.
The Electoral College will determine where candidates campaign & spend. (ie not Kansas)
The story is a lot more complicated than Red vs. Blue or the shades of various states.