Chapter 13 Flashcards
decision
- process of selecting between alternatives
- e.g., considering whether one should eat a sandwich or slice of pizza
reasoning
- cognitive process associated with decision making, where people start with information and come to conclusions
- e.g., The food item that looks freshly made would likely taste better
judgment
- making a decision or drawing a conclusion
- e.g., select the pizza that looks freshly made
inductive reasoning
- reasoning based on observation and evidence, where a conclusion follows
- starts with specific cases and generalizes to broad principles
- this conclusion is probably but not definitely true
- strong inductive arguments result in conclusions that are more likely to be true, and weak arguments result in conclusions that are not as likely to be true
basis of a strong inductive argument
- representativeness of observations
- number of observations
- quality of evidence: stronger evidence results in stronger conclusions
availability heuristic
events that are more easily remembered are judged as more probable than events that are less easily remembered
representative heuristic
- estimate probability by evaluating how similar it is to a prototype (how often one event resembles another event)
- e.g. the probability that an event A comes from class B can be determined by how well A resembles the properties of class B
conjunction rule
- the probability of two events happening together cannot exceed the probability of either event happening independently.
- the representative heuristic often causes people to violate the conjunction rule
factors that can impact judgement
- law of large numbers
- myside bias
- confirmation bias
- illusory correlation
- stereotypes
- base rate
- backfire effect
law of large numbers
large random sample drawn from a population will be more representative of that population
myside bias
- evidence is evaluated in such a way that it aligns with one’s own opinions and attitudes
- type of confirmation bias
confirmation bias
selectively searching for information that conforms to one’s own beliefs and overlook information that argues against it
illusory correlation
perceiving an association between two events when there is no relationship or, the relationship is weaker than what one thinks
stereotypes
- oversimplified generalization about a group or class of people that often focuses on negative characteristics
- can be a result of illusory correlation
base rate
- relative proportions of different classes in the population
- failure to consider base rates can often lead to errors of reasoning
backfire effect
tendency for one’s viewpoint to become stronger when encountering facts that oppose their viewpoint
deductive reasoning
- determining if a conclusion logically follows from statements
- aka premises
- starts with broad principles to make logical predictions about specific cases
syllogism
- basic form of deductive reasoning that consists of 2 premises followed by a conclusion
- syllogism is VALID if the conclusion follows logically from the premises
- conclusion is TRUE is both premises are true
premises
the first two statements in a syllogism
validity
quality of a syllogism whose conclusion follows logically from its premises
categorical syllogism
- premise and conclusion begin with the term, “all, none, or some”
- e.g. Premise 1: All birds are animals (All A are B)
- Premise 2: All animals eat food (All B are C)
- Conclusion: Therefore, all birds eat food (All A are C)
belief bias
believing syllogism is valid of the conclusion is believable or that it is invalid if the conclusion is not believable
mental model approach
determining if syllogisms are valid by creating mental models of situations based on the premises of the syllogism
conditional syllogism
- two premises and a conclusion but the first premise starts with “if…then”
- e.g. Premise 1: If I buy a car, I’ll have less money
- Premise 2: I bought a car
- Conclusion: Therefore, I’ll have less money
utility
desired outcome because it is in one’s best interest
expected utility theory
- people are basically rational
- when all relevant information is known, a decision will be made that results in the maximum expected utility
- it specifies procedures that make it possible to determine which choice would result in the highest monetary value
problems for utility approach
- not necessarily money, people find value in other things
- many decisions do not maximize the probability of the best outcome
falsification principle
the reasoning principle that to test a rule, it is necessary to look for situations that would falsify the rule
permission schema
a pragmatic reasoning schema that states that if a person satisfies condition A, then they get to carry out action B
emotions and decisions
- decisions might be guided by expected emotions or incidental emotions
- people are inaccurate with predicting emotions
expected emotions
- emotions that people predict they will feel for a
particular outcome - determined by risk aversion which is the tendency to avoid taking risks
incidental emotions
emotions unrelated to the act of decision making such as your happy disposition (personality), calming music (environment), dealing with a disgruntled customer (recent experience)
choice and decisions
- decisions depend on how choices are presented/context
- e.g. opt-in and opt-out procedure
opt-in procedure
- procedure in which a person must take an active step to choose a course of action
- e.g. opt-in for organ donation
opt-out procedure
- procedure in which a person must take an active step to avoid a course of action
- e.g. opt-out for organ donation
status quo bias
tendency to do nothing when faced with making a decision
framing effect
- decisions are influenced by how the choices are state (i.e., framed)
- you can word a situation so that it sounds positive or negative
risk aversion strategy
governed by the idea of avoiding risk and often used when problem is stated in terms of gains
risk taking strategy
governed by the idea of taking risks often used when problem is stated in terms of losses
choice and decision - tversky and kahneman (1987)
- Focus on GAIN (saving lives)
- 600 people are at risk of dying from some disease
- if Vaccine A is adopted, 200 people will be saved
- if Vaccine B is adopted, there is a 1/3 probability all 600 will be saved, and a 2/3 probability that no people will be saved
- 72% of people choose Program A
- Focus on LOSS (lives lost)
- 600 people are at risk of dying from some disease
- if Vaccine A is adopted, 400 people will die
- if Vaccine B is adopted, there is a 1/3 probability nobody will die, and a 2/3 probability that all 600 will die.
- 78% of people choose vaccine B
neuroeconimics
- study of decision making that combines psychology, neuroscience, and economics
- a finding from neuroeconomic research is that decisions are influenced by emotions and that, the emotions are associated with activity in specific brain areas
sanfey et al., (2003)
- research on the ultimatum game
- proposer will offer to split a sum of money
- responder will decide to accept or reject the offer
- findings show responders tend to reject low offers because they were angry about the offer being unfair
- when rejecting an offer there was strong activation in the right anterior insula
dual system approach to thinking
- the idea that there are two mental systems that have different capabilities and serve different functions:
- system 1: one fast, automatic, intuitive system, but can make faulty judgments
- system 2: one slower, deliberative, thoughtful system, and sometimes overrides faulty system 1 judgments
