Chapter 13 Flashcards

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1
Q

decision

A
  • process of selecting between alternatives
  • e.g., considering whether one should eat a sandwich or slice of pizza
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2
Q

reasoning

A
  • cognitive process associated with decision making, where people start with information and come to conclusions
  • e.g., The food item that looks freshly made would likely taste better
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3
Q

judgment

A
  • making a decision or drawing a conclusion
  • e.g., select the pizza that looks freshly made
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4
Q

inductive reasoning

A
  • reasoning based on observation and evidence, where a conclusion follows
  • starts with specific cases and generalizes to broad principles
  • this conclusion is probably but not definitely true
  • strong inductive arguments result in conclusions that are more likely to be true, and weak arguments result in conclusions that are not as likely to be true
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5
Q

basis of a strong inductive argument

A
  • representativeness of observations
  • number of observations
  • quality of evidence: stronger evidence results in stronger conclusions
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6
Q

availability heuristic

A

events that are more easily remembered are judged as more probable than events that are less easily remembered

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7
Q

representative heuristic

A
  • estimate probability by evaluating how similar it is to a prototype (how often one event resembles another event)
  • e.g. the probability that an event A comes from class B can be determined by how well A resembles the properties of class B
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8
Q

conjunction rule

A
  • probability of the conjunction of two events cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents
  • the representative heuristic often causes people to violate the conjunction rule
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9
Q

factors that can impact judgement

A
  1. law of large numbers
  2. myside bias
  3. confirmation bias
  4. illusory correlation
  5. stereotypes
  6. base rate
  7. backfire effect
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10
Q

law of large numbers

A

large random sample drawn from a population will be more representative of that population

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11
Q

myside bias

A
  • evidence is evaluated in such a way that it aligns with one’s own opinions and attitudes
  • type of confirmation bias
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12
Q

confirmation bias

A

selectively searching for information that conforms to one’s own beliefs and overlook information that argues against it

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13
Q

illusory correlation

A

perceiving an association between two events when there is no relationship or, the relationship is weaker than what one thinks

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14
Q

stereotypes

A
  • oversimplified generalization about a group or class of people that often focuses on negative characteristics
  • can be a result of illusory correlation
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15
Q

base rate

A
  • relative proportions of different classes in the population
  • failure to consider base rates can often lead to errors of reasoning
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16
Q

backfire effect

A

tendency for one’s viewpoint to become stronger when encountering facts that oppose their viewpoint

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17
Q

deductive reasoning

A
  • deductive reasoning: determining if a conclusion logically follows from statements
  • aka premises
  • starts with broad principles to make logical predictions about specific cases
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18
Q

syllogism

A
  • basic form of deductive reasoning that consists of 2 premises followed by a conclusion
  • syllogism is VALID if the conclusion follows logically from the premises
  • conclusion is TRUE is both premises are true
19
Q

premises

A

the first two statements in a syllogism

20
Q

validity

A

quality of a syllogism whose conclusion follows logically from its premises

21
Q

categorical syllogism

A
  • premise and conclusion begin with the term, “all, none, or some”
  • e.g. Premise 1: All birds are animals (All A are B)
  • Premise 2: All animals eat food (All B are C)
  • Conclusion: Therefore, all birds eat food (All A are C)
22
Q

belief bias

A

believing syllogism is valid of the conclusion is believable or that it is invalid if the conclusion is not believable

23
Q

mental model approach

A
  • determining if syllogisms are valid by creating mental models of situations based on the premises of the syllogism
  • can be used to assess a syllogism’s validity without training in the rules of logic and because it makes predictions that can be tested
24
Q

conditional syllogism

A
  • two premises and a conclusion but the first premise starts with “if…then”
  • e.g. Premise 1: If I buy a car, I’ll have less money
  • Premise 2: I bought a car
  • Conclusion: Therefore, I’ll have less money
25
Q

utility

A

desired outcome because it is in one’s best interest

26
Q

expected utility theory

A
  • people are basically rational
  • when all relevant information is known, a decision will be made that results in the maximum expected utility
  • it specifies procedures that make it possible to determine which choice would result in the highest monetary value
27
Q

problems for utility approach

A
  1. not necessarily money, people find value in other things
  2. many decisions do not maximize the probability of the best outcome
28
Q

falsification principle

A

the reasoning principle that to test a rule, it is necessary to look for situations that would falsify the rule

29
Q

permission schema

A

a pragmatic reasoning schema that states that if a person satisfies condition A, then they get to carry out action B

30
Q

emotions and decisions

A
  • decisions might be guided by expected emotions or incidental emotions
  • people are inaccurate with predicting emotions
31
Q

expected emotions

A
  • emotions that people predict they will feel for a
    particular outcome
  • determined by risk aversion which is the tendency to avoid taking risks
32
Q

incidental emotions

A

emotions unrelated to the act of decision making such as your happy disposition (personality), calming music (environment), dealing with a disgruntled customer (recent experience)

33
Q

choice and decisions

A
  • decisions depend on how choices are presented/context
  • e.g. opt-in and opt-out procedure
34
Q

opt-in procedure

A
  • procedure in which a person must take an active step to choose a course of action
  • e.g. opt-in for organ donation
35
Q

opt-out procedure

A
  • procedure in which a person must take an active step to avoid a course of action
  • e.g. opt-out for organ donation
36
Q

status quo bias

A

tendency to do nothing when faced with making a decision

37
Q

framing effect

A
  • decisions are influenced by how the choices are state (i.e., framed)
  • you can word a situation so that it sounds positive or negative
38
Q

risk aversion strategy

A

governed by the idea of avoiding risk and often used when problem is stated in terms of gains

39
Q

risk taking strategy

A

governed by the idea of taking risks often used when problem is stated in terms of losses

40
Q

choice and decision - tversky and kahneman (1987)

A
  • Focus on GAIN (saving lives)
  • 600 people are at risk of dying from some disease
  • if Vaccine A is adopted, 200 people will be saved
  • if Vaccine B is adopted, there is a 1/3 probability all 600 will be saved, and a 2/3 probability that no people will be saved
  • 72% of people choose Program A
  • Focus on LOSS (lives lost)
  • 600 people are at risk of dying from some disease
  • if Vaccine A is adopted, 400 people will die
  • if Vaccine B is adopted, there is a 1/3 probability nobody will die, and a 2/3 probability that all 600 will die.
  • 78% of people choose vaccine B
41
Q

neuroeconimics

A
  • study of decision making that combines psychology, neuroscience, and economics
  • a finding from neuroeconomic research is that decisions are influenced by emotions and that, the emotions are associated with activity in specific brain areas
42
Q

sanfey et al., (2003)

A
  • research on the ultimatum game
  • proposer will offer to split a sum of money
  • responder will decide to accept or reject the offer
  • findings show responders tend to reject low offers because they were angry about the offer being unfair
  • when rejecting an offer there was strong activation in the right anterior insula
43
Q

dual system approach to thinking

A
  • the idea that there are two mental systems that have different capabilities and serve different functions:
  • system 1: one fast, automatic, intuitive system, but can make faulty judgments
  • system 2: one slower, deliberative, thoughtful system, and sometimes overrides faulty system 1 judgments