Chapter 12: Judgement and Reasoning Flashcards
Frequency estimate
An essential step in judgement, in which someone makes an assessment of how often they have experienced or encountered a particular object or event.
Attribute substitution
Commonly used strategy in which a person needs one type of info but relies on a more accessible form of information
Availability heuristic
A particular form of attribute substitution in which the person needs to judge the frequency of a certain type of object or the likelihood of a certain type of event
Representativeness heuristic
Strategy often used in making judgements about categories
Making the assumption that instances of a category resemble the prototype and vice versa
Heuristic
Strategy that is reasonably efficient and works most of the time
Involves accepting some risk of error in order to gain efficiency
Covariation
Relationship between two variables
The presence of one variable can be predicted from the presence of the other (+ or -)
Confirmation bias
Family of effects in which ppl seem more sensitive to evidence that confirms their beliefs than they are to evidence that challenges their beliefs
Base-rate information
Information about the broad likelihood of a particular type of event
Contrast with diagnostic information
Diagnostic information
Information about a particular case
Contrast with base-rate information
Dual-process model
Any model of thinking that claims people have two distinct means of making judgements—one fast and prone to error, and one slower and more accurate
Type 1 Thinking
Fast, effortless judgement and reasoning strategies that are prone to error
Type 2 thinking
Judgement and reasoning strategies that are slow and effortful
Induction
Drawing general claims from specific bits of evidence
Deduction
Drawing further claims from general assertions
Belief perseverance
Tendency to continue endorsing some assertion or claim, even when the clearly available evidence undermines it
Categorical syllogisms
Logical argument containing two premises and a conclusion
Concerned with the properties of and relations between categories
“All trees are plants, & all plants require nourishment. Therefore, all trees require nourishment.”
Premises
Assertions used as the starting point for a logical argument
May be true or false
Logic is concerned ONLY with whether a conclusion follows from the premises
Valid syllogisms
A syllogism for which the conclusion follows from the premise in accord with the rules of logic
Invalid syllogisms
The conclusion is not logically demanded by the premises
Belief bias
Tendency to endorse a conclusion if the conclusion happens to be something one believes is true anyhow
People rely on beliefs > premises and logic
Conditional statements
“If X then Y”
Selection task
An experimental procedure, commonly used to study reasoning, in which a person is presented with four cards with certain information on either side of the card
person may describe the cards and much decide which cards must be turned over to find out if the rule describes the cards or not
Utility maximization
Proposal that people make decisions by selecting the option with the greatest utility
Framing
In the context of decision making, refers to how the options for a decision are described
Can determine whether a decision is cast in terms of gains (+) or losses (-)
Risk seeking
Tendency towards risk
People tend to be risky when contemplating losses because they’re willing to gamble in hopes of avoiding their losses
Risk aversion
Tendency toward AVOIDING risk
People tend to avoid risk when contemplating gains
Reason-based choice
Proposal for how people make decisions
Central idea is that people make a choice when and only when they detect what they believe to be a persuasive reason for making that choice
Somatic markers
States of the body used in decision making
(e.g. tight stomach, accelerated heart rate)
Affective forecasting
Process in which a person predicts how they will feel at some future point about an object or state of affairs
People are surprisingly inaccurate
(e.g. understating their own capacity to adapt to changes)
