Chapter 12: Judgement and Reasoning

Question 1

Frequency estimate

Answer 1

An essential step in judgement, in which someone makes an assessment of how often they have experienced or encountered a particular object or event.

Question 2

Attribute substitution

Answer 2

Commonly used strategy in which a person needs one type of info but relies on a more accessible form of information

Question 3

Availability heuristic

Answer 3

A particular form of attribute substitution in which the person needs to judge the frequency of a certain type of object or the likelihood of a certain type of event

Question 4

Representativeness heuristic

Answer 4

Strategy often used in making judgements about categories

Making the assumption that instances of a category resemble the prototype and vice versa

Question 5

Heuristic

Answer 5

Strategy that is reasonably efficient and works most of the time

Involves accepting some risk of error in order to gain efficiency

Question 6

Covariation

Answer 6

Relationship between two variables

The presence of one variable can be predicted from the presence of the other (+ or -)

Question 7

Confirmation bias

Answer 7

Family of effects in which ppl seem more sensitive to evidence that confirms their beliefs than they are to evidence that challenges their beliefs

Question 8

Base-rate information

Answer 8

Information about the broad likelihood of a particular type of event

Contrast with diagnostic information

Question 9

Diagnostic information

Answer 9

Information about a particular case

Contrast with base-rate information

Question 10

Dual-process model

Answer 10

Any model of thinking that claims people have two distinct means of making judgements—one fast and prone to error, and one slower and more accurate

Question 11

Type 1 Thinking

Answer 11

Fast, effortless judgement and reasoning strategies that are prone to error

Question 12

Type 2 thinking

Answer 12

Judgement and reasoning strategies that are slow and effortful

Question 13

Induction

Answer 13

Drawing general claims from specific bits of evidence

Question 14

Deduction

Answer 14

Drawing further claims from general assertions

Question 15

Belief perseverance

Answer 15

Tendency to continue endorsing some assertion or claim, even when the clearly available evidence undermines it

Question 16

Categorical syllogisms

Answer 16

Logical argument containing two premises and a conclusion

Concerned with the properties of and relations between categories

“All trees are plants, & all plants require nourishment. Therefore, all trees require nourishment.”

Question 17

Premises

Answer 17

Assertions used as the starting point for a logical argument

May be true or false

Logic is concerned ONLY with whether a conclusion follows from the premises

Question 18

Valid syllogisms

Answer 18

A syllogism for which the conclusion follows from the premise in accord with the rules of logic

Question 19

Invalid syllogisms

Answer 19

The conclusion is not logically demanded by the premises

Question 20

Belief bias

Answer 20

Tendency to endorse a conclusion if the conclusion happens to be something one believes is true anyhow

People rely on beliefs > premises and logic

Question 21

Conditional statements

Answer 21

“If X then Y”

Question 22

Selection task

Answer 22

An experimental procedure, commonly used to study reasoning, in which a person is presented with four cards with certain information on either side of the card

person may describe the cards and much decide which cards must be turned over to find out if the rule describes the cards or not

Question 23

Utility maximization

Answer 23

Proposal that people make decisions by selecting the option with the greatest utility

Question 24

Framing

Answer 24

In the context of decision making, refers to how the options for a decision are described

Can determine whether a decision is cast in terms of gains (+) or losses (-)

Question 25

Risk seeking

Answer 25

Tendency towards risk

People tend to be risky when contemplating losses because they’re willing to gamble in hopes of avoiding their losses

Question 26

Risk aversion

Answer 26

Tendency toward AVOIDING risk

People tend to avoid risk when contemplating gains

Question 27

Reason-based choice

Answer 27

Proposal for how people make decisions

Central idea is that people make a choice when and only when they detect what they believe to be a persuasive reason for making that choice

Question 28

Somatic markers

Answer 28

States of the body used in decision making
(e.g. tight stomach, accelerated heart rate)

Question 29

Affective forecasting

Answer 29

Process in which a person predicts how they will feel at some future point about an object or state of affairs

People are surprisingly inaccurate
(e.g. understating their own capacity to adapt to changes)