Chapter 11 - Optimal portfolio choice and the Capital Asset Pricing Model Flashcards
Define an optimal portfolio
An optimal portfolio is a portyfolio that retuns the highest expected return given a level of volatility that the investor is “comfortable” with.
How do we find an optimal portfolio? (first step)
we first need a method to define a portfolio and analyze its returns.
in order to do this, we use the concept of portfolio weights.
elaborate on how we can define a portfolio and analyze its returns
We need the concept of portfolio weights.
xi = Value Of investment i / total portfolio investment value
the sum of xi for all i will therefore add up to 1.
Recall that this is entirely value based. Total value in the denominator, value of single investment at the enumerator. Shares and share price must be accounted for in a way that compute total value of an investment.
The return of the portfolio is the sum of products, where each product is investment portfolio weight multiplied by the specific return of that investment. This is summed together for all the investments in the portfolio.
Since each part is a contribution to percentage, the sum is the total percentage that indicate the return of the portfolio.
Elaborate on the portfolio weights
It is important to udnerstand how they vary with time.
firstly, since the total investment value will most likely appreciate or depreciate in value, the denominator (which is the total investment value) will also change. This total investment value should always be equal to the current market value of the investments.
Secondly, since the individual stocks/investments will change over time as well, the enumerators of the weight calculations will also change.
Therefore, the portfolio weights represent dynamic measures.
Can we use the portfolio return equaiton to compute expected return?
Yes, we just need to get the formula on the shape of using expected value.
ExpectedReturn = ∑xi E[Ri]
The math is actually:
ExRet = E[Rp] = E[∑xi Ri] = ∑E[xiRi] = ∑xi E[Ri]
The result is extremely intuitive. Expected return of individual stock, multiply it by portfolio weight, sum all investments, get expected portfolio return.
Elaborate on variance and its properties
Variance is defined as the expected value of the squared difference between a value and the mean.
In other words: Variance is the expected value of the squared difference between a value X and the expected value of X:
Var(X) = E((X - E(X))^2)
Now we use the rules of expected value etc to get:
= E((X - E(X))(X - E(X)))
= E(X^2 - 2XE(X) + E(X)^2)
= E(X^2) - E(2XE(X)) + E(E(X)^2)
= E(X^2) - 2(E(XE(X))) + E(X)^2
= E(X^2) - 2E(X)E(X) + E(X)^2
= E(X^2) - 2E(X)^2 + E(X)^2
= E(X^2) - E(X)^2
So, we now have the variance result. we can derive all the properties of variance, like Var(aX) = a^2Var(X) from this formula.
elaborate on covariance and its rules
Recall that covariance is defined as the expected value of the product between the differences between the means of 2 random variables.
Cov(X,Y) = E( (X - E(X))(Y - E(Y)) )
We use the rules of expected value etc:
= E(XY - XE(Y) - YE(X) + E(X)E(Y))
= E(XY) - E(XE(Y)) - E(YE(X)) + E(E(X)E(Y))
= E(XY) - E(X)E(Y) - E(Y)E(X) + E(X)E(Y)
= E(XY) - E(X)E(Y)
This is the ultimate covariance result. We can use this formula to figure what happens if we have cases like Cov(aX, Y) etc
How much risk will remain in a portfolio when we diversify it?
it depends on the level of common risks. Diversifying can in theory eliminate all independent risk, but the common risk (typically market wide risk) remain. It will be up to the individual investment (beta) to determine how much they are impacted by market wide common risks.
What does this image show?
It clearly shows how we can reduce volatility (risk) through diverisfication. the portfolios are both less risky than the individual stocks.
This simply happens because of the patterns of returns in the individual stocks. When one stock does poorly, others may do good. The result is something that does not have that much spread.
Look at how the average return is the same for the stocks and the portfolios, but there is just simply less risk involved in the portfolios.
THe image also shows that risk is further reduced if the stocks included in portfolio tend to move in opposite directions (prices move opposite directions instead of together) and the level of common risk is low. This is why the portfolio of OIL + AIR is less risky than AIR + AIR2.
Just as important is the fact that the return is not affected at all. This only means that good diversification reduce risk.
How can we know if two stocks tend to move together?
We need the statistics package.
Covariance & Correlation.
Elaborate on covariance
Covariance is the expected product of the deviations of two returns from their means:
Cov(Ri, Rj) = E[(Ri - E[Ri])(Rj - E[Rj])]
so if we are interested in covariance over 10 year period (step length 1 year) we have T = 10, and we would sum over 10 different time periods, where Ri,t is return for investment I in year t, while R^(bar)_i is the annual average return etc
Positive covariance indicates that the two stocks are moving together.
Negative covariance indicate that the two stocks move in opposite directions.
How can we interpret covariance?
The sign is all we can use. Magnitude has no meaning.
We need to use the correlation to compare results of magnitude.
Why is covariance not suitable in terms of maginude?
Covariance will be large either if both stocks are very volatile, or if both are very little volatile
What is formula for correlation?
Corr(Ri, Rj) = cov(Ri, Rj) / SD(Rj)SD(Ri)
Upper and lower range for correlation?
-1 to +1
how do we interpret correlation?
how is correlation connected to stock returns and risk?
Correlation closer to 1 represent that there are much common risk.
Close to 0 indicates no correlation, thus no common risk.
Close to -1 indicate that if one stock has common risk, the other will gain from the others downside.
What can we say about negative correlation?
Represent a hedging possibility between the picks.
What is the covariance of a stock when compared to itself?
Covariance would be equal to variance in such a case.
What is the correlation of a stock when compared to itself?
- Perfectly moving together obviously.
When will stock returns be highly correlated with each other?
Stock returns will be highly correlated with each other when they are affected by the same economic events. for instance, stocks within the same industry will usually have strong correlation compared to stocks that are in different industries.
In general, will we easily find stocks with negative correlation?
No, it is not that common. We usually find stocks correlated down to close to 0, but it is difficult to be negatively correlated because most firms benefit from strong economic events etc.
Elaborate on the variance of a two-stock portfolio
We need the covariance rules from statistics.
The result is shown in the image. We start with var(Rp) = cov(Rp, Rp) and manipulate until we get teh result as shown on the image.
How does correlation between stock affect the volatility of the portfolio?
Higher correlation leads to higher volatility of the portfolio.
Consider the variance of a portfolio. Can we relate it to covariance somehow?
Yes. we can make it by using the statistics rules for covariance etc.
We end up getting a result that beasically says that the variance of a portfolio is equal to the weighted average of the covariances of each stock with the portfolio itself.
This is extremely important result because it shows that more covariance (or more correlation) means more variance which means more risk.
What is the ultimate formula result of multi-stock protfolio variance?
This image shows that the multi-level case is a direct generalization of the two-stock case (should therefore be easy enough to remember it) and it essentially boils down to the fact that the total volatility (variance) in a portfolio depends on the total co-movement of the stocks that partake in the portfolio.