Chapter 10: Risk Assessment Flashcards
What is risk assessment?
- making a prediction about behaviour
- will a criminal re-offend if released?
Q: What were the 2 key findings in the Baxstrom and Dixon studies?
- violence during follow-up was low
- error rate was high (high rate of false positives - predicted to re-offend and then don’t)
Q: How was risk assessment viewed prior to the 1990’s? How is it viewed now?
Risk was seen as dichotomous - either someone is dangerous or they’re not
Now, it is seen as a scale/range
Q: What was the significance of Baxstrom v. Herald?
challenged the accuracy of mental health professionals in predicting violence
What are 5 uses of risk assessment in civil settings?
1) civil commitment
2) child protection
3) immigration
4) school and labour
5) duty to warn
use in civil settings
Civil commitment
- deals with mental illness
- in Canada, a psychiatrist can determine the probablitity that someone is a danger to themselves or others and hospitalize them against their will if needed
use in civil settings
Child Protection
CAS may get involved to predict how safe a child is where they live
use in civil settings
Immigration
laws prohibit immigration into Canada if it is believed the individual may pose a risk (background checks - terrorism?)
They may apply to get a risk assessment done if they feel they are in danger when going back home (ex. punished for leaving)
use in civil settings
School and Labour
risk assessment to prevent violence
use in civil settings
Duty to Warn
therapist has to go against the confidentiality agreement and get authorities involved if their patient confesses dangerous ideas (ex. wanting to shoot people at school)
What are 4 ways risk assessment is used in criminal settings?
1) pretrial
2) sentencing (how long)
3) case management
4) release (parole)
Criminal settings
How is RA used in pretrial?
ex:
person could be denied bail if it is belueved there is substantial likelihood they will commit another criminal offence
criminal settings
How is RA used in sentencing?
ex:
judge can apply adult criminal sanctions depending on the age, type of offence, and risk level posed by the youth
criminal settings
how is RA used to determine types of custody?
ex:
- adolescent offenders should only be committed to secure custory if they are considered high risk. otherwise they should be in open custory or be given community service
- level of security (maximum, medium, minimum) is determined partially by RA
criminal settings
how is RA used to determine release?
what is statutory release?
ex:
- parole board uses risk assessment to decide the likelihood that the offender will commit another violent offence if released
- can be denied statutory release (serving only 2/3 of their sentence) and made to stay the last 3rd
True Positive Prediction
Correct!
predicted to re-offend > re-offends
True Negative Prediction
Correct!
predicted not to re-offend > doesn’t re-offend
False Positive Prediction
Who does it affect?
Incorrect
predicted to re-offend > doesn’t re-offend
Affects offender because they’ve been wrongfully labelled as dangerous
False Negative Prediction
Who does it affect?
Incorrect
predicted not to re-offend > re-offends
Society/community affected because violent offender is now free
Why is determining base rates a problem when it comes to risk assessment?
Base rate: % of pop. (community) who commit a violent or criminal act
low base rates make it hard to predict because they are so infrequent and therefore lead to false positives
high base rates make it hard to narrow down
What is an issue with the methods of risk assessment? What does it assume?
Risk assessment assumeas that risk is something that can be measured
What are 3 main weaknesses of research on predicting violence?
(according to Monahan and Steadman, 1994)
1) limited number of risk factors being used (it’s very complex and there are many different factors that can play a role into why someone commited a crime ex. social situation, background, etc.)
2) how it is measured - how can it be generalized? (many crimes go unnoticed meaning there is likely a low base rate making it hard to make accurate predictions)
3) how the criterion variable is defined
Judgement error and bias
Illusory correlation
belief that a correlation exists between two events when in reality they aren’t correlated or correlated to a much lesser degree than assumed
Approaches to risk assessment
Unstructured Clinical Judgment
- no guidelines or pre-determined rules (blueprint) - clinicians argue this is because each case is different
- professional discretion
- subjective
- illusory correlations
Approaches to risk assessment
Actuarial Prediction
- objective
- empirically derived risk factors
- blueprint for decision/prediction
Approaches to risk assessment
Structured Professional Judgment
- risk factors derived from research
- decided by professional
- **considers presense and severity of each risk factor **
- accuracy is only starting to be assessed
Structured Professional Judgment
What are the 5 steps to risk assessment?
What is a risk factor?
- measurable feature of an individual
- predicts behaviour of interest (ex. recidivism (tendency of a convicted criminal to reoffend))
Static Risk Factors
factors that don’t change (ex. age at the time of offence)
Dynamic Risk Factors
- factors that can be changed (ex. through treatment)
- may fluctuate naturally over time
Acute Dynamic Risk Factors
factors that can change rapidly within days, hours, or minutes (ex. level of intoxication)
What are the 2 main processes of risk assessment?
Prediction - describes the probability that they’ll re-offend - what led them there in the first place?
Management - tries to manage/reduce future violence - identifying underlying issues (ex. substance abuse) and providing treatment
What is the main goal of risk assessment?
prevention
Important Risk Factors
Dispositional
- reflects an individuals traits and tendencies
- demographic variables (ex. age, gender)
- personality characteristics (ex. psychopathy, impulsivity)
Important Risk Factors
Clinical
Symptoms of mental disorders that could lead to violent behaviour (ex. substance abuse, schizophrenia, depression, etc.)
Improtant Risk Factors
Contextual
Aspects of the current environment
- ex. having access to weapons, lack of social supports (emotional, financial, etc.), access to victims (sent back to live w/the person they were abusing after their release)
Important Risk Factors
Historical (static) (general and criminal history)
(4 main factors)
1) past behaviour
- often the most accurate predictor of future behaviour
2) age of onset
- convicted before 14-16 = likely to re-offend
3) history of childhood neglect or maltreatment
- research suggests that being sexually abused as a child isn’t a strong indicator for future violence but general abuse is
4) past supervision failure, escape, or institution maladjustment
- ex. breaking parole
Current Issues
What are protective factors?
(4)
Factors that reduce the likelihood of voilence re-occuring
- prosocial involvement + strong attachments
- strong social supports
- intelligence
- employment stability
Recidivism
Tendency for a convicted criminal to re-offend
What are some explanations of desistance? (when people stop offending on their own)
- maturity
- better decision making
- situational factors (stable job, income, family, etc.)
What is an issue regarding the use of scientific research?
Found that clinicians aren’t really using the instruments and that they are overestimating the violence of many of their patients (false positives)
What is a criticism regarding the theory of risk assessment?
- lack of theory guiding evidence
- don’t really address WHY people re-offend and therefore can’t help much in designing treatment
Why is research limited for female recidivism?
- mostly men commit crimes so they are the sample
- women commit different crimes
- factors are smiliar, however. Just not identical
Risk Assessment Instruments
Actuarial Instruments (used in actuarial prediction)
(GSIR)
GSIR
General Statistical Information on Recidivism
- 15 static (don’t change) risk factors used
- good predictor of criminal behaviour
- less so in females because sample was taken from males
Risk Assessment Instruments
Violence Risk Appraisal Guide
- 12 items to assess long-term recidivism in individuals with mental disorders
- good predictor of violence
Instruments for Specific Types of Violence
Spousal Assault Risk Assessment (SARA)
- 20 risk factors
- 10 for past history
- 10 for severity
Instruments for Specific Types of Violence
RRASOR
Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offence Recidivism
