Changing population - Population change Flashcards
What is the crude birth or death rate?
Number of live births or deaths/1000/year
What is the fertility rate?
Total number of births/woman
What is the replacement level?
The total fertility rate at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to another.
What is the infant mortality rate?
The number of deaths of children in their first year /1000
What is immigration/emigration?
The movements of people into a country/from a country
What is the natural change?
The balance between births and deaths in a population
- can be described as:
~ natural increase/decrease
~ stable
What is the net migration?
The balance between emigration and immigration
What is demographic change?
The change in the population
- caused by variations in inputs (births + immigration) and outputs (death + emigration
What are the factors that affect fertility?
- Education + access to contraception - status of women
- Infant mortality
- Regulations (e.g. 1 child policy, political incentives, abortion)
- Religion + cultures
- Household income
- Quality of healthcare + availability to maternity
- Poverty - children to work
How to reduce fertility rates?
- Improve status of women (education + career opportunities)
- Reduce poverty (children not needed for work)
- Improve child survival (healthcare)
- Access to fertility planning (access to contraception + abortion)
What is and was the average global fertility rate?
- 1970 = 5.0
- 2016 = 2.4
- However global population is still growing
What is population momentum?
The tendency for population to grow despite falls in the birth rate
Why does population momentum happen, although fertility rates may have declined?
- Previous high fertility rates mean there will be a high number of people in early and pre-childbearing ages
- As they move through the reproductive ages births will continue to exceed deaths
- Populations continue to grow for approximately 50 years after they reach the replacement rate
- Population momentum will happen even if the total fertility rate drops beneath the replacement rate (e.g. Canada)
What are factors that affect mortality?
- Improvements in food supply (quality + diversity + lack of calories + better diets) and agriculture
- Immunisation + healthcare
- Hygiene + sanitation
- Clean water supplies
- Education (public - does every community understand bacteria + how they spread? - how important hand-washing is?
(epidemics/pandemics (HIV/AIDS) + conflicts)
What is the population structure?
- It varies between places over time
- Refers to a number of measurable characteristics of a population
- Can include: age, gender, ethnicity, language, socio-economic status, occupation, etc.
What structures of a population can be displayed on a population pyramid?
Age + sex
What do population pyramids show?
Trends in:
- Birth rate
- Death rate
- IMR (infant mortality rate)
- Life expectancy
How can population pyramids be useful?
- As a tool to help countries plan for the future (schools, services + facilities for the elderly)
- Identify the proportion of the population who are economically active or dependent (dependency ratio)
- Identify effects of immigration/emigration
What do concave slopes of population pyramids suggest?
High death rates + low life expectancy
What do near vertical sides of a population pyramid suggest?
Indicate low death rates
What did the global population pyramid look like in 1970?
- The largest segment was the youngest (0-5 years, 14% total)
- Whilst above 85 years there were very few people
What did the global population pyramid look like in 2015?
- More like a dome
- Young children still the largest group, but now make up only 10% of the population
- Those above them = almost as big a cohort with 9.5%
- Age groups start to become markedly smaller only around the age of 40, so incline starts much further up the chart than with the pyramid
- Now also 50m people above 85, so the dome of 2015 had a spike
What will the global population pyramid look like in 2060?
- The dome has gone now and the shape of the population looks more like a column or pillar
- Up to the age of 50 - generations are almost of equal size + shape has near-vertical sides
- By 2060 - children will be barely more numerous than any other age group up to 65
How to decipher population pyramids?
- The higher the pyramid, the longer people live
- A broader shape at the top shows a higher proportion of people living longer
- Differences between males + females can be picked out - is there a gender imbalance?
- Bulges show either a period of immigration, or a baby boom year
- Indents show years of higher death rates than normal (disease, war, famine) or emigration
- Youthful populations correspond with high fertility rates + larger family sizes
- A wide base shows a high birth rate
- A narrow base shows a falling birth rate
What is an example of a country with more male migrants than female migrants + high birth rate in migrant groups that shows huge imbalances on the population pyramid?
The United Arab Emirates (UAE)
What did the global fertility rate look like in 1950?
Women were having an average of 4.7 children in their lifetime.
- The global fertility rate all but halved to 2.4 children per woman in 2021
What replacement level does a country’s fertility rate have to drop under to cause the populations to eventually start to shrink?
2.1
How many nations had a fertility rate below 2.1 in 1950?
0 nations
How many countries now (2018) have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1?
Half of the world’s countries
Which countries have lower fertility rates?
More economically developed countries including:
- Most of Europe
- The USA
- South Korea
- Australia
Does the lower fertility rate in half of the world mean that the population is falling?
Not yet, as it can take generations for the changes in fertility rate to take hold - POPULATION MOMENTUM
What is an example of where there still huge difference in the fertility rate between nations?
- Niger (W. Africa) = 7.1
- Cyprus = 1
- Half of the world’s nations are still producing enough children for their populations to grow, but as more of these countries advance economically, the fertility rates will lower
What are the 10 countries with the lowest fertility rates?
- Cyprus = 1
- Taiwan
- South Korea = 1.2
- Andorra
- Puerto Rico
- Thailand
- Bosnia + Herzegovina = 1.3
- Poland
- Moldova
- Japan
Where are the countries with the highest fertility rates located?
9/10 of them are in Africa (apart from Afghanistan)
- Sub-Saharan Africa
What are three key factors that lead to the fertility rate falling?
- Fewer deaths in childhood meaning women have fewer babies
- Greater access to contraception
- More women in education + work
What are factors that lead to the high fertility rate in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)?
fertility rate = 4.66
- Annual growth rate of 2.45%
- High infant mortality rate - over 70%, so women have more children to compensate
- Use of contraceptives limited to less than 20% of the population
- Largely agricultural society with 1/3 of workforce working in farming (children = added bonus of extra work)
- Low levels of literacy + high levels of poverty
What are factors that lead to a low fertility rate in Germany?
Fertility rate = 1.44
- Germany is a HIC - average PPP of $46,900 (Purchasing power parity = GDP changed to dollars)
- Most employment in service sector - women = likely to be employed
- Most of population live in urban areas (over 75%)
- High literacy levels
- Over 60% of families use contraceptives
What happens in countries with a low life expectancy?
- Many people will still live into old age
- However a significant number of people will die at a very young age
- Meaning that the average is low
Where can the bottom countries for life expectancy be found?
37/40 found in Sub-saharan Africa (World bank figures -2016)
How does life expectancy differ between countries?
There are large variations in life expectancy, from over 80 in a number of developed nations
- Such as Japan, UK and Singapore
To less than 50
- for men in Chad
What factor positively correlates with life expectancy?
Wealth (e.g. GDP)
How does the World Bank classify a LIC?
Less than $995 GNI/Capita
Which LIC has a life expectancy above 68?
Nepal
How does life expectancy vary in MICs (where most people live)?
51 to 81- depending on how money is distributed and used
How does the World Bank classify a HIC?
More than $12,000 GNI/Capita
Which HICs have a life expectancy below 75?
- The Bahamas
- Trinidad
- The Seychelles
What factors affect life expectancy?
Lifestyle, levels of deprivation + availability + cost of medical care = all important
Other determinants include:
- Education, income + housing
- Diet, alcohol + drug misuse
- Preventative healthcare such as immunisation
What differences should most countries expect to see in life expectancy over time?
Improvement over time
- As they develop/improve
- Food supply
- Access to clean water
- Availability of adequate housing
What are examples of HICs where 50% of those born in 2007 will be expected to live to 100 years?
- Japan
- Canada
Why is life expectancy often higher for women than men?
For men:
- Later retirement ages common
- More likely to undertake physical labour
- More likely to be involved in conflict
- Greater tendency towards destructive lifestyles (to smoke/drink in excess)
Why have many countries in sub-saharan Africa struggled with low or declining life expectancies?
- Poverty
- Conflict
- AIDS virus
- Diseases in Zimbabwe, Botswana + Lesotho
- Syria + Yemen - due to food shortages + conflict
Why are Japan’s + the UK’s life expectancy higher than the USA’s?
Because even though the USA spends over $800 per capita (twice as much as Japan + UK)
on health services
- Healthcare is not free - many cannot afford health insurance + cannot access hospital treatment
… so life expectancy is below countries such as the UK (where NHS delivers state-funded healthcare for everyone
- Japan also has a healthier lifetsyle and traditional (non-western) diet which is low-fat + includes higher proportion of fish + vegetables
What are the key factors in improving the life expectancy in developed countries?
- Level of education
- GDP per capita
- Lifestyle - reducing calorie intake!
- Lifestyle - drink/drugs
- Lifestyle - exercise
- Lifestyle - reducing smoking!
- Cost of healthcare
- Healthcare spending by Government per capita!
- Medical research (quaternary sector)
What is the demographic transition model?
It shows variations in fertility, mortality + population dynamics
- This model is based on the experience of European countries
- It suggests that countries will pass through 5 stages of population change
What happens during stage 1 of the DTM?
CBR: High
CDR: High
Demographic change: stable
- Society is pre-industrial. Economy based on subsistence agriculture
- CDR high + fluctuating due to incidence of famine, disease + war
- CBR high, need for child labour + replacement children
What happens during stage 2 of the DTM?
CBR: High
CDR: Declining (death rate falls)
Demographic change: Natural increase (youthful population)
- Early industrialisation
- CBR high as child labour still required, no reliable contraceptives/ culturally
unacceptable
- CDR declining due to; better nutrition, improved healthcare + sanitation
What happens during stage 3 of the DTM?
CBR: Declining
CDR: Low
Demographic change: Natural increase (young economically active)
- Society adjusts to lower mortality, birth rates begin to decline
- Continued improvements in medical care
- Wider contraceptive use, female education + higher status
What happens during stage 4 of the DTM?
CBR: Declining
CDR: Low
Demographic change: Natural increase (many economically active)
- Advanced medical services + good quality of life
- Wide contraceptive accessibility
- High female status allows concentration on education/employment
What happens during stage 5 of the DTM?
CBR: Declining
CDR: Low
Demographic change: Natural decrease (ageing population)
- Elderly generation dominates population structure
- Birth rate has fallen below death rate
- Population declines unless there is immigration
Where can these stages of the DTM be seen?
- Stage 1 - Isolated tribes
- Stage 2/3 - LICs + Developing countries
- Stage 3/4 - Emerging economies + MICs/RICs/NICs
- Stage 4/5 - Developed countries/HICs
Is the UK at stage 4 or 5 of the DTM?
- EU expansion 2004 - citizens of 8 new countries in Eastern Europe given right to work + live in UK
- 1 million economic migrants moved to the UK between 2004-2008
- UK appeared to be heading for natural decrease + declining birth rates by the early 2000s
- However net immigration, including 2004 increase, led to increase in young working age adults, and as a result to an increase in birth rates as these workers started families, maintaining steady rates of population growth in the UK
What are limitations of the DTM?
- Assumes all countries will pass through industrialisation as per Western Europe + develop at the same rate (Euro-centric)
- Some countries may develop much more rapidly than the model suggests
- Many LEDCs can’t afford the medical advances associated with stages 2 & 3
- The fall in BR in stage 3 can vary greatly
->slow in some countries due to religion/culture (e.g. India)
-> faster in others due to policies (e.g. China) - Stage 5 fails to account for immigration
How did the DTM change over time in the UK?
- Death rates fell from mid 1700s - because voluntary hospitals were more funded = better quality healthcare, equipment + doctors
- 1820-1840 - death rates rose briefly due to food shortages, bad housing + poor sanitation in large towns
- Birth rates fell in 1830s + again from 1870 because of different laws being created such as the factories banning child labour in 1883. Then in/from 1870 because of spread of birth-control information
- Overall, the population pre-1970 was still growing, the death rate since the 1800s, eventually the birth rate also declining enough to reach the same level finally bringing natural increase to a halt
- 20th century phase can be described as natural increase
- The death rates reached their current lower level around 1950
How did Fertility, Mortality and Migration change in the UK?
- 1945-50 - returning soldiers from WW2 start families = ‘baby boom’
- 1945-50 - migration from former colonies encouraged by government
- 1960s/70s - emancipation of women following increasing employment = CBR decline
- 1998 - net migration overtakes natural increase as main driver of growth
- 2004 - AB countries join EU, with free movement, UK is attractive destination
- 2010 - points system introduced for international migrants
- 2016 - Brexit = the UK to leave the EU
What is the dependency ratio?
It compares the proportion of a population that is economically active with the dependent, or ‘non-productive’ population
- Useful to compare countries + track changes over time
How do you calculate the dependency ratio?
%under 15 + %65 and over
______________________ x100
%aged 15 - 64
What is the difference between the dependency percentage of developed and developing countries?
- Developed countries have a high proportion of elderly dependents
- Developing countries have a high proportion of young dependents
Why is the dependency ratio regarded as a crude measure?
- Some under 15 will work - especially in developing nations
- Some over 65 will work
- Over 65s create wealth through work in retirement + spending in the economy (the grey pound)
- Some over 15 will not be economically active due to time in education, unemployment, illness, caring for others
What are the dependency ratios of some example countries?
- UK = 49
- Japan = 64
- Ethiopia = 96
- Vietnam = 47
- China = 37
- USA = 47
- World = 52
What does the changing proportion of elderly people in the high and middle income countries of India, USA, UK, China, Germany and Japan look like?
- All seen an increase in people over 65
- Emerging nations have the highest percentage increase (2010 - 2050), with both India (5-13%) and China (8-26%) more than doubling
- Japan still has the highest percentage of people 65 and over by 2050 (36%)
- 5 out of the 6 nations over 20% are aged 65+ years by 2050
What is Japan’s dependency ratio estimated to be in 2065?
98
(8% = 0-15, 41.5%=65+, 50.5% = 15-65)
What are the advantages of an ageing population?
- The elderly have skills that are more useful to employers (e.g. supermarkets)
- The elderly are also good child carers so that parents can work
How will the percentage of 65s change in the world between now and 2035?
The percentage is expected to almost double - leap from 7% to 14% - already increasing
What will change in the world about the number of over 65s compared to the number of under 5s by 2035?
The number of over 65s in the world will outnumber that of under 5s by 2035 - for the first time
What challenges does an increasingly older population present?
- People, especially families, would find it hard to care for older people living alone
- Paying for an unprecedented number of pensioners will be difficult for policy makers
Of the 25 countries with the oldest populations, how many are in Europe?
23 out of the world’s 25 countries with the oldest populations
What proportion of Europe’s population will be at least 65 by 2040?
By 2040, more than 1/4 Europeans are expected to be at least 65 (25%)
What problems does Japan face as a result of their ageing population?
- Inadequate nursing facilities
- Depletion of the labour force
- Deterioration of the economy
- A trade deficit
- Migration of Japanese industry to other countries
- The high cost of funding pensions + health care
- Falling demand for schools + teachers
- New jobs needed for the elderly
- New leisure facilities needed for elderly
- Increase in the burden on the working population to serve the dependent population
- Reduced demand for goods from the smaller working population
- A need for in-migration to fuel any increase in the workforce
What measures could be put in place to deal with the problems Japan faces due to their ageing population?
The government could:
- Raise taxes
- Raise the retirement age
- Cut back on social welfare programmes
- Increase care in people’s homes
