Changing population - Demographic dividend + Megacities

Question 1

What were the world’s largest cities by population in 2016?

Answer 1

1. Tokyo, Japan - 38 million
2. Delhi, India - 26 million
3. Shanghai, China - 24 million
4. Mumbai, India
5. Sao Paulo, Brazil
6. Beijing, China
7. Mexico City, Mexico
8. Osaka, Japan
9. Cairo, Egypt
10. New York, USA

Question 2

What is the core periphery pattern for mega-city growth?

Answer 2

• No dominant centre —> time
• Strong economic core develops fuelled by the in-migration of workers + investors —> time
• Additional core regions can form over time as part of the development process

Question 3

What is the process of ‘cumulative causation’?

Answer 3

• Some places have natural advantages over advantages over others such as raw materials or coastal locations for trade
• Over time these develop + grow, drawing in workers, resources + investors from other regions
• As more workers + investors see the core as an attractive place to move to, a national core-periphery pattern can develop
• This is known as the process of ‘cumulative causation’ - which strengthens each time because of positive feedback effects

Question 4

Where can an example of a core-periphery pattern and megacity growth be seen?

Answer 4

In China as a result of economic growth, internal migration + increasing urbanisation
- Leading to the creation of mega-regions, containing a number of mega-cities + millionaire cities in the East, while the west forms the periphery

Question 5

Where are China’s three core regions?

Answer 5

• Beijing (Capital Economic Zone)
• Shanghai (Yangtze River Delta)
• Shenzhen (Pearl River Delta)

Question 6

What key event happened in 2008 linked to growth of cities?

Answer 6

For the first time ever, more people lived in cities than rural areas

Question 7

How big does the population of a city have to be a mega-city?

Answer 7

10+ million

Question 8

How many mega-cities were there in 1975?

Answer 8

There were 3 mega-cities:
- Mexico City
- Tokyo
- New York City

Question 9

How many mega-cities exist now?

Answer 9

31 mega-cities

Question 10

By 2050 how many are predicted to be living in urban areas?

Answer 10

70% of us

Question 11

Which countries have the most megacities?

Answer 11

• India = 5 megacities in 2018
• China = 6 megacities in 2018

Question 12

Which area of the world has the most megacities?

Answer 12

Out of the world’s 31 megacities in 2016, 24 are located in the less developed regions or the “global South”

Question 13

What are the 10 cities that are projected to become megacities between 2016 and 2030, that are all located in developing countries?

Answer 13

• Lahore, Pakistan
• Hyderabad, India
• Bogota, Colombia
• Johannesburg, South Africa
• Bangkok, Thailand
• Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
• Ahmanabad, India
• Luanda, Angola
• Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
• Chungdu, China

Question 14

Where are some of the world’s fastest growing cities?

Answer 14

Asia and Africa

Question 15

What is a city that shares the typical pressures of a rapidly growing city in the developing world?

Answer 15

Manila in the Philippines

Question 16

How many people live in Manila?

Answer 16

20 million and growing

Question 17

By how much has Manila grown in the last 10 years?

Answer 17

Manila has grown by 1/3 in the last 10 years

Question 18

What typical pressures does Manila share of a rapidly growing city in the developing world?

Answer 18

• Lack of space (areal extent)
• Housing the population - slums/shantiles
• Lack of clean water / sanitation / disease
• Disparities of wealth (conflict between rich + poor)
• Unemployment
• Waste
• Congestion
• Pollution

Question 19

What is the Jose Fabella Maternity Hospital?

Answer 19

• Manila’s largest maternity hospital
• 4 mothers + babies per bed
• Population growth 2.36% per year = one of the highest in the world
• Typical for women to have 8 children
• Wards can see 100 births in 24 hours

Question 20

What are the issues with shanty towns in Manila?

Answer 20

• 1/3 of Manila’s 20 million live in shanty towns
• Baseco Shanty town:
  
  • 90,000 in half a square mile
  • Built on sea wall
  • Flood risk - typhoons
  • No sanitation
  • No rubbish collection
  • Disease - TB
  • Intermittent water supply
• Pressure on education:
  
  • Children attend school shifts, starting at 6am
  • 6000 children attend the local primary school for Baseco

Question 21

What are the issues for Manila North Cemetery?

Answer 21

• Not enough room for the number of burials
• The dead are evicted to make room for new burials
• Families living in tombs
• More peaceful than shanty towns
• Electricity + water connected illegally

Question 22

What are the issue with traffic congestion in Manila?

Answer 22

• 1000 hours of being stuck in traffic for each person every year
• Leads to pollution, smog
• Attempted solution restrict cars to certain days based on their number plate

Question 23

What are the issues with slums in Manila?

Answer 23

• Over-crowded slums (7 million)
• Some rehoused to high density, high rise apartments om 1990s
• Paradise Heights (17,000)
• Typical flats = 2 rooms + Parents and 8 children
• Often build an extra storey inside the flat

Question 24

What do the business community + government want to do about Manila?

Answer 24

Want to clear Manila’s slums + send half a million people back to the countryside
So they want to give them more incentives to go back + relocate the residents of the ‘Estero de San Miguel’ as the first

Question 25

How do the slum residents view their community differently?

Answer 25

They are happy + believe that there is social cohesion there
- That it’s organised + clean
They also mention other positives such as the fact that they have no prostitution there + that they have drunks + drug-taking under control

Question 26

What are the problems with rehousing people either within the city or relocating them elsewhere?

Answer 26

The problems are that if they had to rehouse them inside Manila, in medium-rise housing, it would cost a third of the national budget

Question 27

How has the United Nations’ official view on slums + shanty towns changed?

Answer 27

By them realising that the informal settlements make positive contributions to economic development
- Whereas 10 years ago they used to dream that cities would become slum-free
- Now their approach is not to clear them, but to gradually improve them + regularise land tenure

Question 28

What value can the communities of shanty towns bring to a Megacity such as Manila?

Answer 28

Include that:
- The slum-dwellers are the ones who drive the cars, clean the houses, + run the stores of the elite
- If these people were cleared from the city, the city would die
- Slum dwellers add social, political + economic value to the city
- They have new migrants
- They are dense + use land efficiently
- They are culturally diverse
- They offer numerous opportunities for ragged-trousered entrepreneurs

Question 29

What is a demographic dividend?

Answer 29

• Few old dependants
• Largest population = working age
• Few young dependants

Question 30

How is a demographic dividend formed?

Answer 30

• As death rates fall, a country may experience a demographic dividend
• Death rates fall before birth rates
• Lag between falling death rates + falling fertility produces a bulge in population that surges through age groups (cohorts)
• For a short time there is a bulge in the working population - that creates a demographic/economic dividend
• As they get older you get less of a dividend

Question 31

What are benefits of a demographic dividend?

Answer 31

• Increased labour supply –> depends on ability of economy to absorb + productively employ extra workers
• Increase in savings –> as number of dependants decreases, individuals can save more
• Decrease in fertility rates result in healthier women + fewer social + economic pressure at home –> also allows parents to invest more resources per child, leading to better health + educational outcomes
• Increasing domestic demand brought about by the increasing GDP per capita + decreasing dependency ratio - leads to economic growth

Question 32

What are the challenges of a demographic dividend?

Answer 32

• Many of least developed countries will have to go through the “demographic transition” to achieve the economic benefit without substantially lowering birth + child death rates —> while child survival has greatly improved in developing countries, birth rates remain high in many of them, especially parts of Sub-Saharan Africa
• In world’s least developed countries - more than 40% of population under age 15+ depends on financial support from working age adults between ages 15 - 64 —> Another 90 million people between ages 15 + 19 are on their way to becoming financially independent as they enter adulthood

Question 33

What are recommended actions for demographic dividends?

Answer 33

• Investing in child survival + health programmes
• Committing to voluntary family planning to achieve demographic transition
• Investing in the reproductive health needs of both married + unmarried youth
• Prioritising education - especially secondary education for girls

Question 34

What caused South Korea’s demographic dividend?

Answer 34

Made high to low rapid transition in fertility between 1960 and 1990 a springboard for economic growth
(followed aggressive population policy)
- was the result of addressing population issues + also investing in reproductive health programmes, education + economic health policies to create infrastructure + manufacturing

• Government also largely focused on education + economic planning (farming + fishing = weak —> improved relations with Japan = investment capital that strengthened agricultural, fishing, manufacturing + shipping industries)