Changing Population Flashcards
What is north-south divide?
Increasing inequality levels in development between north/south or HICs/LICs
What is the development gap?
Difference in wealth between developed and developing world
What is OPEC?
Organization of petroleum exporting countries, reps interests of oil exporters
What is the G7/G8?
Group of the world’s most powerful / wealthy countries
What is the G10 or Paris Club?
Group representing wealthiest members of International Monetary Fund
What are some global trends in population distribution?
75% within 1,000 km of sea
85% less than 500 m high
85% between lats 68°n and 20°n
Less than 10% in southern hemisphere
Favor: fertile valleys, reg supply of water, temperate climate, good comms
What’s the difference between HICs, MICs, and LICs?
LICs: per capital income < $1,025
MICs: per capital income $1,026 - $12,475
HICs: per capital income > $12,476
Overall increasing worldwide
Describe case study: economic classifications
First world: developed
Second world: state-controlled communist countries
Third world: developing
More economically developed (MEDC): HICs
Newly industrializing (NICs): rapid growth since 1960 (BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa; MINT: Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey)
Centrally planned economies (CPEs): socialist, many former-communists
Oil-rich: rich but not well distributed
Recently industrializing (RICs): NICs but recent
Less economically developed (LEDCs): LICs (Egypt)
Least developed (LDCs): not developed (Afghanistan)
It’s a continuum
Describe population distribution in China
Concentrated in eastern area: rain-fed agriculture, trade → mega-regions
Other areas are desert, mountains, grasslands
50% on 8.2% of land
More developed in east → inequalities
Describe internal migration in China
Since 1978, 160 mil migrants mainly to coastal industrial areas for higher pay
Generally good for economy and migrants, but costs are rising
Describe population distribution and migration in South Africa
Population distribution:
High density in core economic regions: mineral resources, farming, trading
Low in most arid and mountain areas
3 periods of internal migration:
Until 1950, economic migration from industrial development
Forced immigration from apartheid
Voluntary immigration after apartheid
After apartheid, many Black people homeland → city for work
Circular migration between home and host areas, often low-paying jobs
Many African migrants go to South Africa, highest # asylum claims in world
Increasing violence toward migrants
What is the demographic transition model (DTM)?
General model based on England, Wales, Sweden; shows change in birth/death rates
Different countries have different models
Stage 1: high and variable
Pop grows fluctuates; only in some tribal communities now
Children for labor, elder care; death from poverty, disease
Stage 2: early expanding
Birth high, death drops; high growth
Sudan, Libya
Stage 3: late expanding
Birth drops, death low; slow growth
Brazil, Argentina
Stage 4: low and variable
Pop growth fluctuates
UK and developed
Stage 5: low declining
Birth < death; pop declines; Japan
Children expensive, social security; less death from higher living standards
What is natural change?
Crude birth – crude death rate = % (decreasing if neg)
Doubling time: years for pop to double; 70 / nat increase
Pop momentum: grow despite fall in birth/fertility bc many people (pre) childbearing
What is the total fertility rate?
Average # births per 1000 women of childbearing age
Completed family size if rate is constant
Generally higher in LICs
Affecting factors:
Status of women (equality = less birth)
Level of eduction + material ambition: more ed = less birth, really rich and poor are large fams
Location (rural = more birth)
Religion
Health of mother
Economic prosperity (can you afford a child?)
Need for children (high if high infant mortality, labor)
What is life expectancy?
Average # years expected to live given demographic
Lowest in sub-saharan Africa, esp from poverty, AIDS, conflict
Generally goes up over time, higher for women
What are age/sex pyramids?
Population w/ age categories graph, separate male and female
Wide base = high birth rate
Straight sides = low death rates
Budge = immigration in
Slice = immigration out or specific deaths (war)
What is a dependency ratio?
Compare working and dependent population
100 x (<15+ >64) / (16 to 64)
HICs: high elderly pop
LICs: high youth pop
Describe case study: megacity growth – Mumbai
India’s largest city, 18 million
Many rich and poor people
Many industries: aerospace, electronics, finance, entertainment, energy, etc
2011 census: ~75% in slums, many male people from migration
Extreme poverty, unemployment, lack of sanitation
Pressure to clear Dharavi slum near financial district, but people live and work there
What is forced migration?
Movement of refugees + internally displaced people (from conflicts) and those displaced by natural, chemical, nuclear disasters, famine, development
Types of forced migrants:
Refugees (living in other country because nationality country = persecution)
Asylum seekers (refugee but claim for status is undecided)
Internally displaced persons: forced to free but living in same country
Development + env, disaster displacees
Smuggled + trafficked people
Describe case study: forced migration in and from Syria
> 10 million displaced from Isis rule
Began as civil war, includes parts of Iraq
Large stress on neighboring countries: Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt, Jordan
Many Syrians in Lebanon not in school, but # refugee schoolers > # Lebanese schoolers
Big strain on health, ed, water, electricity systems
Describe case study: forced migration in Nigeria
> 250K displaced by Boko Haram terrorist group
Hundreds of schoolgirls kidnapped and held captive, tortured, forced to carry bombs
Displaced farmers → lack of food; health care closed, lack of water
What is the grey economy?
Market toward elderly people
In some areas they provide childcare
Holiday, healthcare companies target grey economy; set to rapidly grow
Europe is greyest continent
What is the older dependency ratio (ODR)?
Number of working age people to older population they support
If high, need to fund more retirement and health care
Describe case study: Japan’s ageing population
Since 1945: decrease in birth + death rates
Now, > 26% of pop > 65, more living alone
Problems:
Inadequate nursing, leisure, jobs for elderly
Depletion of labor force
Industry migration
High cost of pensions / healthcare
Falling demand for schools and teachers
Increased burden on workers
Govt options: raise taxes, raise retirement age, cut social welfare, more in-home care
Describe case study: China’s one-child policy
1979 - one child → 2013 - two if parent is one → 2015 - two → 2021 any
Applied to Han Chinese in urban areas, sometimes more relaxed
Many female kids aborted / given up bc sexism
Shrinking workforce + aging population, were concerned about food
Factors like lack of social security, high urban costs → likely no population boom
Describe case study: pro-natalist policies in Russia
Low fertility reasons: poor reproductive health services, lack of contraceptives, unsafe abortions, divorce, ageing pop, infertility
1936 +: Soviet Union and Russia have rewards for more kids, had tax for no kids
1970s: new push led to lower childbearing age but not more kids
2006: Putin’s plan with increased benefits per kid, more leave, payments to moms
Good effect at first, but wore off quickly (same effect from 70s)
Need financial support or immigration to increase pop, unlikely
Could increase retirement age
Describe case study: literacy and gender equality policies in Kerala
Kerala, India: most densely populated state, but even and no big cities
Improved health, literacy, ed, lower birth rate even with low income; ppl voice concern
Success factors: autonomy + stability of govt, past + cont social reform, status of women
Role of women:
Equal employment + ed expectations and opportunities
Autonomy in personal life (no dowries, can remarry)
Positive stats: high sex ratio, high literacy, low infant mortality
Women marginalized in economic process: concentrated in low-paying jobs, higher unemployment than men given educated → self-help groups for poor women w/ micro-finance systems
Still bad stuff: male-dom legal system, violence toward women common
What are the patterns / policies around trafficking?
Often trans-border issue, occurs in most countries; fight via protecting victims, persecution of traffickers, prevention by govts
Must be a multi-governmental approach w/ many responses; some places it’s not illegal
At-risk populations: refugees/migrants (overburdened systems, no papers), LGBT, religious minorities, disabled people, stateless people
Very few convictions where applicable
People believe that confiscating proceeds is good punishment + deterrent, but that does not give support to victims who rarely get compensation
Describe case study: trafficking of Nigerian women to Europe
Women sign blessed contract → forced into prostitution from debt
Lots of corruption and blackmail, gangs maybe in drug distribution too
What is the demographic dividend?
Bulge in # adults bc there’s a lag between decline in infant/child mortality and lower fertility rates
Benefits:
Increased labor supply if jobs
Increased savings bc few dependents (elderly die early still)
Healthier women from less kid pressure, more $ per kid
Economic growth
In order to have benefits, must lower birth + child death rates → need ed and contraceptives
Also must invest in child health, ed, gender equality
Afterward, disproportionate # old people
Describe case study: South Korea’s demographic dividend
High → low fertility from 1960 to 1990 allowed economic growth
Investment in health centers with family planning, field workers visited homes, people saw that fewer kids improved family life
50s and 60s: switched to universal schooling → knowledge for Econ development; also strengthened countries economy via investment capital and un-unemployment plan
