ch 9 Flashcards
What is Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) based on
the logic that all investors are risk-averse.
What do EMH (effective market hypothesis) opponents respond with?
1) risk and 2) luck
What three factors lead to market efficiency?
investor rationality, independent deviations from rationality, arbitrage
What does “Rational” mean?
that investors do not systematically overvalue or undervalue financial assets in light of the information they possess.
What are the three forms of market efficiency?
Strong-form set, semistrong-form set, weak-form set
Weak Form of market Efficiency
efficiency states that information reflected in past prices and volume figures is of no value in beating the market
If you believe the market is weak form efficient then what is of no use?
technical analysis- all past price volume data are worked into a stock’s price
Semi-strong of market efficiency
states that publicly available information of any and all kinds is of no use in beating the market.
If you believe the market is semi-strong form efficient then what is of no use?
then fundamental analysis (studying past price and volume data & studying earnings and growth forecasts) is useless.
Strong form of market efficiency
states that no information of any kind, public or private is useful in beating the market.
If you believe the market is strong form efficient then what is of no use?
ignoring the issue of legality, possessing non-public inside information is useless when it comes to beating the market.
Insider
anyone who possesses material nonpublic information
Market anomalies
predictable abnormal returns and can be interpreted as known deviations of efficiency.
What does it mean to beat the market?
Investor earns an excess return against a benchmark with equal risk.
Technical Analysis
using the historical market activity of a security to predict future price movement
Day-Trading
the rapid buying and selling of securities to make quick profits but have all open orders closed out by the day’s market close
Fundamental Analysis
an investment evaluation method that using public info in an attempt to measure a security’s intrinsic value
Event study
a statistical method of assessing the impact of an event on a stock’s price
What form of efficiency do most professionals agree the market is not?
Strong form efficient. The debate is weather the market is weak form or semi-strong.
What are the three inherent difficulties in measuring market efficiency?
1- the measure used for risk
2- dumb luck
2- data dredging
What are some of the anomalies to market efficiency?
-earnings announcement anomaly
-the day of the week anomaly
-the January effect
-the size effect
-price-to-earnings anomaly
most are too
Earnings announcement anomaly
According to EMH, prices should then adjust very quickly to the earnings “surprise”.
However, some research shows it takes days for the market price to adjust fully.
The day of the week
Market appears to be better on Friday and the worst on Mondays
The January Effect
January is frequently the best-preforming month for small-cap stocks, especially those who underperformed in the month of December
More specifically – the “small stock in January especially around the turn of the year for losers effect” – or SSIJEATTOTYFLE.
This one is partially understood:
Tax loss selling
Institutional investors