Ch 8 Stock Valuation Flashcards
Why is it hardder to value common stock than a bond?
3 reasons:
1. not even the promised cf are known in advance
2. the life of stock is forever (no maturity)
3. no way to observe the rate of return the market requires
Formula for present value of a stock
P0 = (D1 + P1)/ (1+r)
D1= cash dividend
P1= price in one period
r= requred market rate
What is the flaw with the Present value of stock formula?
you need to know the stock price in one period ahead
you can keep iterating forward and forward but this will only complicate things!
so what IS the point of iterating out the present value of the stock formula?
the price of a stock today is = to the present value of all the future dividends!!!!
Po = D1/ (1+r) + D2/ (1+r)^2 …..
what are 3 cases that we can use to determine the vlaue of a stock
- dividend has zero growth rate
- dividend grows at a constant rate
- dividend grows at a constant rate after some length of time
ZERO GROWTH RATE STOCK
- all dividends are the same, so this is a constant
- this is an ordinary perpetuity
Po = D/r
D: Dividend every period
r: the required return
CONSTANT GROWTH STOCK
dividend growth model
-when dividend is growing at a steady rate (g)
- a stock with dividends growing lik ethis is a GROWING PERPETUTITY
Po = Do x (1+g) / r-g = D/r-g
dividend aristocrats
companies like banks that have a policy of consitently increasing dividends every year!!! THEY MUST DO IT
how to use the dividend growth model to calculate the stock price in a future year?
- calgaulate the future value of the dividend by using:
Dt=PV(1+g)^t - Plug this into dividend growth model
Pt= Dt x (1+g) / r-g
Why does r> g always in the dividend growth rate model
bc if r=g or r<g then stock price is infinitely large (dividends get bigger and bigger so this is nonsense)
NOTE: g>r for some period of time, but not indefintiely
TRICKY PORTION OF DIVIDEND GROWTH RATE MODEL
IF YOU ARE GIVEN THE AMOUNT FOR THE NEXTTTTTT DIVIDEND!!!
do not use Do x (1+g)/r-g
USE D1/r-g!!!
Non constant growth
-sometimes there are supernormal growth rates over finite length of time
-we assume that the
dividends start growing at a constant rate sometime in the future
How to deal with non constant growth rates?
SCENARIO 1: WHEN DIVIDENDS ARE ZERO FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL YEARS
- you must find out what the stock will be worth once dividends are paid
use P0 = D1/ r-g
P0=FV
- calculate pv of the futureprice to get todays price
PV= FV/1+r ^t
NOTE: t is the last year where there are 0 dividends
How to deal with non constant growth rates?
SCENARIO 2: WHEN DIVIDENDS ARE NONZERO FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL YEARS
g= long run growth rate
G= short run growth rate
0) make a table,
year | expected div = div
0 total div (1+G) div0
1 div0(1+G) div1
2 div1(1+G) div2
3 div2(1+G) div3
1) start with calculatung the pv of all future dividends (use the dividend furthest out from today as D, so if 3 years= D3)
P3= D3 x (1+g)/ r-g
2) discount all cash dividends to present, add them, and add discount fof the P0 you just calculated as well
P0 = Div1/(1+r) + Div2/(1+r)^2 … + P3/(1+r)^t
2 criticisms of dividend growth model
First, in the late 1990s, the level of the market, and
especially tech stocks, was far higher than the present value of expected dividends. Second, market
prices are far more volatile than the present value of dividends
formula for the required return (r)
r= D1/P0 + g
D1/P0 is called dividend yield
g is the rate at which investmenet grows= CAPITAL GAINS YIELD
SO
r= dividend yield + capital gains yield
how do value stock of companies that dont pay dividends?
USE benchmark PE ratio * EPS to come up with a price
Price at time t = Pt
Pt= Benchmark PE x EPSt
what does benchmark PE ratio come from
similar companies, historical data,
note that the ratio can differ depending on industries
What if a company does not pay dividends and is very new and not yet profitable? (net earnings are negative)
how do we price it?
use price-sales ratio
Pt= benchmark price sales x sales per share
what is common stock
stock that has no special preference in dividends or in bankruptcy
structure of a corporation
shareholders elect directors
directors hire management
directors are hired yearly at an annual meeting
one share one vote not one shareholder one vote
not everyones vote matters equally-> hwo has more at stake has more say
proxy contest
a fight for shareholder votes between parties attmepting to control the corporation
say on pay policy
gives shareholders a voice in determining exec pay packagies
other rughts shareholders have
right to share proportionally in dividends paid
riht to share proportionally in residual value of assets
right to vote on matters of importance (merger etc)
PREEMPTIVE RIGHT
SOMETIEMSSSS sometimes have the right to share proportionally in any new stock sold
Dividends- important characteristics
- unless dividends are declared there is no obligation to pay
- they are non tax deductible cuz not a business expense (paid from after tax profits)
- dividends recieved by individual SH are sort of sheletered by a div tax credit (to prevent double taxation of dividends)
classes of stock
voting and non voting
both must recieve the same amount of dividends (sometimes non voting gets more!)
why are there two classes of stock?
manging the contorl of the firm
non voting stock= raise capital while still maintaining control
DO YOU NED 51% OF THE SHARES TO HAVE MAJORTIY?
Because it is necessary to own only 51% of the voting stock to control a company,
non-voting shareholders could be left out in the cold in the event of a takeover bid for the company. To
protect the non-voting shareholders, most companies have a “coattail” provision giving non-voting
shareholders either the right to vote or to convert their shares into voting shares that can be tendered to the
takeover bid. In the Canadian Tire case, all Class A shareholders become entitled to vote and the coattail
provision is triggered if a bid is made for “all or substantially all” of the voting shares
NOOOOOOOOOOO only half + 1
what is preferred stock
has preference over common stock!!! if bankruptcy they get paid first
have no voting priveleges
stated value
prefered shares have a liquidating value=stated value
can dividends o fpreferred stock be either cumulative or non cumulative?
yes either
if a dividend on preferred stock is cumulative and not paid in a year, what happens
dividends in arrears!! it is carried forward as an arrear age!!!
THese are not debt to the firms, but common SH cant recive dividends, and to amend not recieiving dividends preferred shareholders get voting rights
why do firms issue preffered stock and not debt
-unpaid div in arrears is not debt! so no bankruptcy
-preffered sh can not vote so still retain control
on the demand side, mostly corps own preffer stocks, and corporate income from preffered stock is tax exempt (EVEN THO THE ISSUER DOESNT ENJOY A TAX BEENFIT)
If the volume of stock is 80 what does that mean
80 stocks exchanged hands
cash cow
when a company issues all of its earnings per share as dividiends
EPS= DIv
value of a share of stock in a cash cow: EPS/r = cash cow price
why are not all companies cash cows
paying out all earnings as dividends may not be the optimal one. Many firms have
growth opportunities; that is, opportunities to invest in profitable projects. Because these projects can
represent a significant fraction of the firm’s value, it would be foolish to forgo them to pay out all earnings
as dividends
what is the stock price after firm commits to new projects (growth opportunities)
EPS/r + NPVGO
EPS/r: current value of the firm without project
NPVGO: NPV per share of growth opportunity: additional value if firm retains earnings to fnd new projects
WHAT IS THE PREFFERED STOCK LIKE IN A SPECIAL CASE??
THE CONSTANT DIVIDEND
as required return increases
stock price decreases
as growth rates icrease
stock prices increase
EV/EBITDA multiple
EV: Ent Value= Mkt val of eq + mkt val of debt - cash
this is called acquirers multiple (its the cost to buy the whole company) [buy all the equity, assume all debt, and use cash to pay for it]
EBITDA: cash generated by firm to all stakeholders (+govt and creditors)
BOTH EV AND EBITDA INCLUDE DEBT AND EQUITY
Dividends and Taxes
− Dividend payments are not considered a business
expense and are not tax deductible.
− Dividends received by individual shareholders are
partially sheltered by the dividend tax credit.
− Dividends received by corporate shareholders are not
taxed.
− This prevents double taxation of dividends
Stock market quotations are published in the
newspapers and are also available on-line (usually
with a 15-minute delays during trading hours)
* In Canada, large cap stocks trade on the TSX
* Quotes and corporate information on stocks that
trade on the TSX can be found at the exchange’s
website
How to use EV/EBITDA multiple?
1) for the alternative with all the EV and Ebitda elements, DIVIDE EV/EBITDA
2) the qquotient you get is the multiple
3) For the next alt multiply multiple by EV/EBITDA, and solve for what the price per share should be
2 ASSUMPRIONS OF DIV GRPWTH MODEL
he dividend growth model presented in the text is only valid (i) if dividends are expected to occur
forever, that is, the stock provides dividends in perpetuity, and (ii) if a constant growth rate of dividends occurs
forever.
dividends are fixed on preffered stock!! can grow on coommon
this is whu common stock might be priced higher
If the dividend grows at a steady rate, so does the stock price. In other words, the dividend growth
rate and the capital gains yield are the sam
If the dividend grows at a steady rate, so does the stock price. In other words, the dividend growth
rate and the capital gains yield are the sam
CAPITLA GAINS YIELD= DIVIDEND GROWTH RATE
As the required return increases, the stock price decreases. This is a function of the time value of money: A
higher discount rate decreases the present value of cash flows
