Ch 5 Probability Flashcards
Steps of a simulation plan?
- State the problem
- State assumptions
- Assign outcomes
- Stimulate many repetitions
- State conclusion
Probability of any outcome of a chance process is ___
A number btwn 0 & 1 that describes the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a VERY LONG SERIES OF REPETITIONS
What is probability also known as?
Long run frequency
Random
How does it apply to probability
Anything could happen in the short term, but there is a pattern over the long term
Probability model
Used for?
Used to model chance behavior
What is a probability model
Description of some chance process that consists of 2 parts
1) a sample size S
2) a probability to each outcome
Sample space S of a chance process
Set of all possible outcomes
Probability is a # between…
0 & 1.
Sum of probabilities for a situation should equal ?
1 (like in a probability model chart)
If S is sample space, P(S)= 1
If 2 events have no outcomes in common, how do you find the probability that 1 or the other will happen?
Add (disjoint events)
P(A or B) = P(A)+P(B)
Probability that an event doesn’t occur is ____ minus ___?
1 minus P(event)
Complement rule
1-P(A) = P(A^c)
How do you find the chance that two events will both happen?
Multiply (independent)
P(A&B)=P(A) * P(B)
What methods do you use when you see the word “both”?
Venn diagram or two way table
Conditional probability
Probability that 1 event happens given that another event is already known to have happened
Intersection means?
And union means?
Intersection means and
Union means or
