Ch. 13 - Judgment, Decisions, and Reasoning Flashcards
___: making a decision or drawing a conclusion
Judgment
___: cognitive processes by which people start with information and come to conclusions that go beyond that information
Reasoning
___: the process of choosing between alternatives
Decision
___ Reasoning: the process of drawing general conclusions based on specific observations and evidence
Inductive
One of the characteristics of inductive reasoning is that the conclusions we reach are probably, but not definitely, ___.
true
Example of Inductive Arguments:
1) ___: All the crows I’ve seen in Pittsburgh are totally black. When I visited my brother in Washington, DC, the crows I saw there were black too. 2) Conclusion: All crows are black.
Observation
Example of Inductive Arguments:
1)Observation: All the crows I’ve seen in Pittsburgh are totally black. When I visited my brother in Washington, DC, the crows I saw there were black too. 2) ___: All crows are black.
Conclusion
___ of observations. How well do the observations about a particular category represent all of the members of that category?
Representativeness
___ of the evidence: stronger evidence results in stronger conclusions.
Quality
Anytime we make a ___ about what will happen based on our observations about what has happened in the past, we are using inductive reasoning.
prediction
___: provide us with shortcuts to help us generalize from specific experiences to broader judgments and conclusions
heuristics
Inductive reasoning goes from ___ observations to general conclusions
specific
___ Heuristic: states that events that more easily come to mind are judged as being more probable than events that are less easily recalled
Availability
___ Correlations: occur when a relationship between two events appears to exist, but in reality, there is no relationship, or the relationship is much weaker than it is assumed to be
Illusory
___: an oversimplified generalization about a group or class of people that often focus on the negative
Stereotype
___ Rate: the relative proportion of different classes in the population
Base
Conjunction Rule: states that the ___ of a conjunction of two events (A and B) cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents (A alone or B alone)
probability
___ of Large Numbers: the larger the number of individuals that are randomly drawn from a population, the more representative the resulting group will be of the entire population
Law
___ Bias: people can evaluate evidence in a way that is biased toward their own opinions and attitudes
Myside
___ Bias: occurs when people look for information that conforms to their hypothesis and ignore information that refutes it
Confirmation
___ Effect: an individual’s support for a particular viewpoint could actually become stronger when faced with corrective facts opposing their viewpoint
Backfire
Deductive Reasoning: we determine whether a conclusion ___ follows from statements
logically
___ reasoning starts with specific cases and generalizes to broad principles
Inductive
___ reasoning starts with broad principles to make logical predictions about specific cases
Deductive
___: the basic form of deductive reasoning, which consists of two broad statements, or premises, followed by a third statement called the conclusion
Syllogism
