Ch 12 - Judgement and Reasoning Flashcards
frequency estimate
how often various events have occurred in the past
attribute substitution
a strategy used when we do not have easy access to a desired piece of information
availability heuristic
we make decisions based on the ease of retrieval of information from memory rather than the actual likelihood
representativeness heuristic
assumption that resemblance to the prototype reflects probability
covariation
a relationship between two variables such that presence of one can be predicted by that of the other
the factors that contribute to illusions of covariation, including base-rate neglect and diagnostic information
a pattern that people believe they perceive in the data such that one variable predicts another
- study of Rorschach inkblots found that even when fictitious patients and fictitious responses were randomly paired, people believed they had found patterns
type 1 thinking (system 1)
fast and automatic thinking, reliance on heuristics
type 2 thinking (system 2)
slower, effortful thinking, more likely to be correct
what makes us more likely to use one type of thinking over the other
use of type 1 or type 2 thinking usually depends on the context of the decision
inductive reasoning
process through which you forecast about new cases based on observed cases
deductive reasoning
start with general premies and ask what follows
incidents of conformation bias in research and real world settings
when people are assessing a belief, they are more likely to seek evidence that might confirm the belief than evidence that might disconfirm it
the Watson four-card task
participants are presented with a conditional statement and asked to select the appropriate cards to test the truth value of the conditional statement
utility maximization
a strategic scheme where individuals seek to achieve the highest level of satisfaction from their decisions
how framing a problem can influence the decision-making process
due to the way the information was presented
