Causal

Question 1

FALSE CAUSATION // Cum Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

Answer 1

“with this, therefore because of this”

assuming a correlation between two variables implies a causal link

A, B
therefore A caused B

“US spending on science, space and technology correlates 99% with suicides by hanging, strangulation and suffocation”

Question 2

FALSE CAUSATION // Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

Answer 2

“after this, therefore because of this”

assuming a causal link between two variables due to a chronological correlation

A then B
therefore A caused B

“I ate the scallops at the restaurant, later I felt sick; therefore the scallops made me sick.”

Question 3

FALSE CAUSATION // Magical Thinking

Answer 3

assuming a causal link between two variables due to superstitious thinking

based on Associative Thinking, Temporal Connection or Projecting Mental States

“Michael’s mother recently ended up in hospital; he concludes it must be due to all the cracks he always steps on”

Question 4

FALSE CAUSATION // Regression Fallacy

Answer 4

falsely assuming a causal link between an action and effect, without accounting for natural fluctuations and a Regression to the Mean that may be the true cause of the effect

“John scored eleven hole-in-ones in a row. David gave a quick prayer on the final hole, and John cut one into the bunker. David celebrated - it worked!”

Question 5

WRONG RELATIONSHIP // Reverse Causation

Answer 5

Wrong Direction

confusing the causal order

A, B
assuming A causes B when B causes A

“The kettle whistles when the water is boiling; therefore the whistling causes the water to boil.”

Question 6

WRONG RELATIONSHIP // Complex Cause

Answer 6

Fallacy of the Single Cause

assuming an effect has only one cause, when there are multiple

A, B
assuming A causes B, when A + A’… cause B

“John’s team lost the game, and John is feeling depressed; therefore, John’s team losing the game caused John’s depression”

Question 7

WRONG RELATIONSHIP // Joint Effect

Answer 7

Ignoring A Common Cause

assuming a causal link between two variables, when both are caused by an external ‘lurking variable’

“I and my brother are in the same family, therefore I must have caused my brother’s existence”

Question 8

WRONG RELATIONSHIP // COMPLEX CAUSE // Insignificant Cause

Answer 8

a given cause is relevant, but virtually insignificant compared to other causes

“Michael found a penny, and Michael is jubilant; therefore, finding a penny made Michael jubilant.”