C4 Flashcards
416
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-1 intro:QUIK-SUMM - purpose of stress-testing (4)
risk, complement, Cap-Liq
416
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-1 intro:QUIK-SUMM - purpose of stress-testing (4)
risk, complement, Cap-Liq
- RISK: identify & control risk
- COMPLEMENT: provide a complement to other risk management tools + simulate shocks
- CAPITAL MGMT: support capital management
- LIQUIDITY MGMT: improve liquidity management
417
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-1 purpose:Describe - risk ID, control (regarding purpose of stress-testing)
id concentrations, adjust portfolios
417
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-1 purpose:Describe - risk ID, control (regarding purpose of stress-testing)
id concentrations, adjust portfolios
- RISK ID: identify concentrations & interactions of risks
- RISK CONTROL: adjust (individual portfolios, overall business strategy)
418
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-1 purpose:Describe - complementing other tools (regarding purpose of stress-testing)
value at risk, simulate shocks..
418
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-1 purpose:Describe - complementing other tools (regarding purpose of stress-testing)
value at risk, simulate shocks..
- Test statistical models USED to determine Value-at-Risk
- Simulate SHOCKS to test model robustness to economic changes
419
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-1 purpose:Describe - supporting Capital Management (regarding purpose of stress-testing)
severe/compounding events
419
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-1 purpose:Describe - supporting Capital Management (regarding purpose of stress-testing)
severe/compounding events
- Identify SEVERE events and/or COMPOUNDING events that impact capital requirements
420
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-1 purpose:Describe - improving Liquidity Management (regarding purpose of stress-testing)
assess liquidity profile..
420
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-1 purpose:Describe - improving Liquidity Management (regarding purpose of stress-testing)
assess liquidity profile..
- ASSESS liquidity profile & adequacy of buffers FOR institutional & market-wide stresses
421
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-2 method:QUIK-SUMM - steps in the DCAT process (7)
421
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-2 method:QUIK-SUMM - steps in the DCAT process (7)
- Review
- BASE scenario
- Risk
- PAS
- Report
- Management actions
- Regulato actions
422
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-2 method:Describe DCAT process step 1 - review (1)/7
422
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-2 method:Describe DCAT process step 1 - review (1)/7
- REVIEW: 3 years operations & financial position @ end of each year
423
E (2019.Spring 19a.) 0.500 pts
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-2 method:Describe DCAT process step 2 - BASE (2)/7
423
E (2019.Spring 19a.) 0.500 pts
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-2 method:Describe DCAT process step 2 - BASE (2)/7
- BASE scenario:
- CREATE a set of assumptions on risk factors
- Should be CONSISTENT with business plan (if plan is realistic & consistent)
- Should COVER the forecast period
424
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-2 method:Describe DCAT process step 3 - risk (3)/7
..SensTest..
424
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-2 method:Describe DCAT process step 3 - risk (3)/7
..SensTest..
- RISK CATEGORIES: select relevant risk categories from F-PIP-RIGOR using sensitivity-testing
425
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-2 method:Describe DCAT process step 4 - PAS (4)/7
425
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-2 method:Describe DCAT process step 4 - PAS (4)/7
- PAS: select plausible adverse scenarios from the risk categories identified in step 3
426
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-2 method:Describe DCAT process step 5 - report (5)/7
426
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-2 method:Describe DCAT process step 5 - report (5)/7
- REPORT: scenarios with highest surplus sensitivity & those where surplus < (supervisory capital required)
427
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-2 method:Describe DCAT process step 6 - Action(management) (6)/7
RskMit.ContPlan
427
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-2 method:Describe DCAT process step 6 - Action(management) (6)/7
RskMit.ContPlan
- ACTION (by management): identify management action to facilitiate risk mitigation & contingency planning
428
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-2 method:Describe DCAT process step 7 - Action(regulator) (7)/7
+ sign
428
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-2 method:Describe DCAT process step 7 - Action(regulator) (7)/7
+ sign
- ACTION (by regulator): identify possible regulatory action for falling below regulatory capital required (& SIGN opinion)
429
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-3 forecast period:What should the length of the DCAT forecast period be & what is a consideration in determining the length
429
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-3 forecast period:What should the length of the DCAT forecast period be & what is a consideration in determining the length
- At least 3 years for P&C insurance
- Consideration: long enough to (capture adversity, give management time to react)
433
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-3 PAS:Define ‘adverse scenario’
433
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-3 PAS:Define ‘adverse scenario’
- A scenario with an adverse outcome on the insurer’s financial condition
- Developed by stress-testing assumptions (risk factors) used in forecasting the business plan
434
E (2018.Spring 19a.) 0.250 pts
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-3 PAS:Define ‘plausible adverse scenario’
set of assmps..
434
E (2018.Spring 19a.) 0.250 pts
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-3 PAS:Define ‘plausible adverse scenario’
set of assmps..
- (set of assumptions) for an (undesirable but reasonably possible event) relating to (insurer’s financial condition)
- Statsitically, the scenario should lie between the 95th and 99th percentile on the loss distribution.
435
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-3 PAS:Define ‘integrated scenario’ & give an example
435
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-3 PAS:Define ‘integrated scenario’ & give an example
- An integrated scenario is a combination of 2 or more simpler adverse scenarios
- Example: combine a low probability scenario with & high probability scenario
436
E (2017.Fall 23a.ii) 0.250 pts
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-3 PAS:List two methods of selecting Plausible Adverse Secenarios (2)
436
E (2017.Fall 23a.ii) 0.250 pts
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-3 PAS:List two methods of selecting Plausible Adverse Secenarios (2)
- METHOD 1: pick a scenario that falls between the 95th and 99th percentile of the loss distribution
- Adverse scenario requires > 95th percentile
- Plausible scenario requires < 99th percentile)
- METHOD 2: reverse stress-testing
437
E (2014.Fall 26a.) 0.500 pts
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-3 PAS:Define ‘reverse stress testing’
how far risk factors..
437
E (2014.Fall 26a.) 0.500 pts
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-3 PAS:Define ‘reverse stress testing’
how far risk factors..
- HOW FAR must risk factors change TO DRIVE the insurer’s surplus negative during forecast period THEN determine whether such change is plausible
438
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-3 PAS:Define ‘ripple effect’
an event that occurs when..
438
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-3 PAS:Define ‘ripple effect’
an event that occurs when..
- An event that occurs WHEN an adverse scenario triggers a change in 1 or more interdependent assumptions
439
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
PAS:List some common examples of ripple effects (7)
439
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
PAS:List some common examples of ripple effects (7)
- Higher LR (higher losses or operating costs)
- Loss of reinsurance
- Post-event inflation
- Forced sale or liquidation
- Mix shift
- Policy holder actions
- Regulatory actions
440
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-6 PAS:List some common examples of management actions (5)
440
CIA.DCAT 1,2: INTRO & METHOD
Qz-6 PAS:List some common examples of management actions (5)
- Tighten U/W criteria
- Increase rates
- Review reinsurance
- Sell assets
- Review mix (by geography, limit,..)
441
CIA.DCAT 3: MODELING
Qz-4 basic reqs:What are the basic requirements of a DCAT model (3)
reproduce..
441
CIA.DCAT 3: MODELING
Qz-4 basic reqs:What are the basic requirements of a DCAT model (3)
reproduce. .
* REPRODUCE key elements of financial statements:
- B/S items - assets, liabilities, equity
- Income Statement items - revenue, expenses
- Regulatory measures of capital adequacy
442
CIA.DCAT 3: MODELING
Qz-4 model validation:How does an actuary validate a DCAT model in a static environment
Base continuity:CLS
442
CIA.DCAT 3: MODELING
Qz-4 model validation:How does an actuary validate a DCAT model in a static environment
Base continuity:CLS
- Usually tested with base scenario:
- Base scenario usually shows continuity of results from year-to-year (cash, liabilities, surplus,..)
444
CIA.DCAT 4: REPORTING
Qz-5 intro:Purpose of DCAT report
444
CIA.DCAT 4: REPORTING
Qz-5 intro:Purpose of DCAT report
- COMMUNICATION to Board of Directors: identify risks & ways to reduce risk
- IN OTHER WORDS: report on the financial condition of insurer & things to improve
445
CIA.DCAT 4: REPORTING
Qz-5 intro:What are the different audiences for a DCAT report (3)
Bmr
445
CIA.DCAT 4: REPORTING
Qz-5 intro:What are the different audiences for a DCAT report (3)
Bmr
- Board of Directors: prefers an interpretive summary versus a detailed statistical report
- Management: receives a more detailed report
- Regulator: focuses on solvency issues
446
E (2018.Fall 20f.) 0.500 pts
CIA.DCAT 4: REPORTING
Qz-5 intro:When can actuary report that the financial condition of an insurer is satisfactory
446
E (2018.Fall 20f.) 0.500 pts
CIA.DCAT 4: REPORTING
Qz-5 intro:When can actuary report that the financial condition of an insurer is satisfactory
- For (BASE scenario):
- supervisory capital requirements must be met
- which means MCT > 150% (ALL YRS)
- For (BASE scenario, all PAS):
- assets > liabilities (ALL YRS)
447
E (2018.Spring 19d.) 0.500 pts
CIA.DCAT 4: REPORTING
intro:When can actuary report that the financial condition of an insurer is satisfactory
447
E (2018.Spring 19d.) 0.500 pts
CIA.DCAT 4: REPORTING
intro:When can actuary report that the financial condition of an insurer is satisfactory
- For (BASE scenario):
- supervisory capital requirements must be met
- which means MCT > 150% (ALL YRS)
- For (BASE scenario, all PAS):
- assets > liabilities (ALL YRS)
448
CIA.DCAT AppB: RISK CATEGORIES
Qz-6 AppB intro:What are the P&C Insurer Risk Categories pertaining to DCAT
F-PIP-RIGOR
448
CIA.DCAT AppB: RISK CATEGORIES
Qz-6 AppB intro:What are the P&C Insurer Risk Categories pertaining to DCAT
F-PIP-RIGOR
- F:
- Frequency & severity
- PIP:
- Policy liabilities
- Inflation
- Premium
- RIGOR:
- Reinsurance & counter-parties
- Investment risk
- Government risk
- Off-B/S risk
- Related company risk
449
CIA.DCAT AppB: RISK CATEGORIES
Qz-6 AppB:(B.1) give examples of causes, ripple effects, and management actions for the Frequency & Severity risk category
449
CIA.DCAT AppB: RISK CATEGORIES
Qz-6 AppB:(B.1) give examples of causes, ripple effects, and management actions for the Frequency & Severity risk category
- CAUSE: catastrophe, social inflation
- RIPPLE EFFECT: post-event inflation, loss of reinsurance
- MANAGEMENT ACTIONS: raise rates, review reinsurance
450
E (2013.Fall 29d.) 0.500 pts
CIA.DCAT AppB: RISK CATEGORIES
Qz-6 AppB:(B.2) give examples of causes, ripple effects, and management actions for the Policy Liabilities risk category
450
E (2013.Fall 29d.) 0.500 pts
CIA.DCAT AppB: RISK CATEGORIES
Qz-6 AppB:(B.2) give examples of causes, ripple effects, and management actions for the Policy Liabilities risk category
- CAUSE: inadequate LDFs, class action lawsuits
- RIPPLE EFFECTS: forced sale or liquidation, rating agency downgrade
- MANAGEMENT ACTIONS: increase rates, review mix
451
CIA.DCAT AppB: RISK CATEGORIES
Qz-6 AppB:(B.3) give examples of causes, ripple effects, and management actions for the Inflation risk category
451
CIA.DCAT AppB: RISK CATEGORIES
Qz-6 AppB:(B.3) give examples of causes, ripple effects, and management actions for the Inflation risk category
- CAUSE: (rapid, sustained) increase OR (temporary) increase in (labour, materials) due to catastrophe
- RIPPLE EFFECTS: increase in operating costing, reinsurance
- MANAGEMENT ACTIONS: increase rates, review mix
452
CIA.DCAT AppB: RISK CATEGORIES
Qz-6 AppB:(B.4a) give examples of causes, ripple effects, and management actions for the Premium risk category (higher volume than expected)
452
CIA.DCAT AppB: RISK CATEGORIES
Qz-6 AppB:(B.4a) give examples of causes, ripple effects, and management actions for the Premium risk category (higher volume than expected)
- CAUSE: inadequate rates, withdrawal of competitor
- RIPPLE EFFECTS: deteriorating LR, increased expenses (new staff, overtime)
- MANAGEMENT ACTIONS: raise rates, hire more staff
453
E (2013.Fall 29c.) 0.500 pts
CIA.DCAT AppB: RISK CATEGORIES
Qz-6 AppB:(B.4b) give examples of causes, ripple effects, and management actions for the Premium risk category (lower volume than expected)
453
E (2013.Fall 29c.) 0.500 pts
CIA.DCAT AppB: RISK CATEGORIES
Qz-6 AppB:(B.4b) give examples of causes, ripple effects, and management actions for the Premium risk category (lower volume than expected)
- CAUSE: rates too high, new competitor
- RIPPLE EFFECTS: mix shift, increased fixed exp ratio
- MANAGEMENT ACTIONS: review mix, lower rates
454
CIA.DCAT AppB: RISK CATEGORIES
Qz-6 AppB:(B.5) give examples of causes, ripple effects, and management actions for the Reinsurance & counterparty risk category
454
CIA.DCAT AppB: RISK CATEGORIES
Qz-6 AppB:(B.5) give examples of causes, ripple effects, and management actions for the Reinsurance & counterparty risk category
- CAUSE: reinsurer insolvency, reinsurer dispute
- RIPPLE EFFECTS: reinsurance rate increase for replacement reinsurer, reduced reimbursement
- MANAGEMENT ACTIONS: review reinsurance: diversify or change reinsurer
455
CIA.DCAT AppB: RISK CATEGORIES
Qz-6 AppB:(B.6) give examples of causes, ripple effects, and management actions for the Investment risk category
455
CIA.DCAT AppB: RISK CATEGORIES
Qz-6 AppB:(B.6) give examples of causes, ripple effects, and management actions for the Investment risk category
- CAUSE: significant change in yield curve, decrease in returns on equity investments
- RIPPLE EFFECTS: forced sale or liquidation, significant change in cash flows
- MANAGEMENT ACTIONS: sell assets, change investment strategy