BU - Investments Flashcards
2 Parts of the financial markets
Money Markets - short term debt instruments
Capital markets - Long-term debt & equity
Examples of financial markets
stock market
bond market
commodities market
foreign exchange market
2 parts of Capital Market
Primary market
- new securities are issued and sold to the public
- IPOs
- Issuing firm receives the proceeds
- Regulated by the securities act of 1933
Secondary market
- previously issued new securities sold among investors
- issuing firm is no longer directly involved
- regulated by the securities act of 1934
Efficient Market Theory (EMT)
states that the stock market is efficient and therefore all stocks reflect all relevant information and are priced in equilibrium
Examples of secondary markets
Organized exchange: new york stock exchange
Over the counter market: NASDAQ
What kind of investors accept the efficient market theory?
Passive investors and would like buy index funds
What are the 3 forms of EMT
Strong
Semi-strong
Weak
What is random walk?
Random walk theory suggests that changes in stock prices have the same distribution and are independent of each other. Therefore, it assumes the past movement or trend of a stock price or market cannot be used to predict its future movement.
What are the 3 attributes to describe and differentiate the 3 forms?
Inside information - Semi strong and weak
Fundamental analysis - Weak
technical analysis - none
What anomalies to the EMT cannot be explained away by EMT believers?
Low P/E Effect - Low P/E likely generate more returns and outperform
Small Firm Effect - small firms tend to outperform larger companies
Neglected Firm Effect - prior neglected stocks generate more return over time, while prior best performers underperform
January Effect - small companies stock generate more return in the first 2-3 weeks in January
Value Line Phenomenon - Most popular - stocks with below average balance sheets outperform growth stocks due to investor belief in companies’ potential
Weekend Effect - stock prices fall on Monday, closing less than the previous Friday
IDK: If presented with a HPR question involving margin, where do you adjust?
Adjust all the entries to reflect the correct cash flow and subtract the margin interest in the numerator
Time-weighted return
Global standard for fund performance
Geometric rate of return = [(1+return 1) x (1+return2) x (1+return3)…]^n - 1
Dollar Weighted Return
Appropriate for a client with their own particular cash flows
This return is affected by the timing of cash flows
What is the appropriate discount rate applied to NPV calculations?
investor’s required rate of return
Net Present Value
discount rate is the investors required rate of return
Calculated using uneven cash flow keys
If the result is + or = go for it, will likely get better than expected returns
If the result is - do not go for it, will likely get less than expected returns
Internal Rate of Return
Calculated using the TVM keys
Weakness is that is assumes the reinvestment rate is the IRR
Yield to Maturity and Yield to Call are examples of IRR
Which is the superior model: NPV or IRR
NPV
Investment Risks
Total Risk = Systematic Risk + Unsystematic Risk
- Total risk is measured by standard deviation
- Systematic risk is quantified by beta
- Unsystematic risk is referred to as Firm-specific
Systematic Risks (cement)
Systematic risk cannot be eliminated through diversification
Purchasing Power Risk (inflation)
Reinvestment Risk
Interest Rate Risk
Market Risk
Exchange Rate Risk
Unsystematic Risks (unload, risks you can unload)
Unsystematic risk can be eliminated through diversification
Business Risk
Financial Risk
Default or Credit Risk
Regulation Risk
Sovereignty Risk
Relationship of Risk & Return
Risk is measured by standard deviation
The greater the standard deviation (risk), the greater the variance of expected return
Low standard deviations provider lower returns
Low risk investments
Cash or money market securities
Treasury securities
Investment grade bonds
Higher risk investments
Common or preferred stock
Junk bonds (high yield bonds)
Options, futures and forwards
Small cap and growth oriented funds
Factors that influence an investor’s capacity for risk
Time horizon
liquidity needs
total investable assets
Currency Exchange
Devalue is when $1: 1 euro moves to $1.50: 1 euro. I have to use more $ to purchase euro
Revalue is when $1: 1 euro moves to $1: 1.50 euro. I can get more for $1
Replace the exchange value with a product - ex: $1: 1 apple or $1: 2 apples
Hedging
To Buy: to buy the power, do you want to control the outcome
To Sell: to sell the power, do you careless
Long: to buy the product
Short: to sell the product
Intrinsic Value Keys
N = X x2 FV = X PMT= X /2 I= X /2 PV= ?
If the yield increases, then the price must decrease, and the other way around
YTM Keys
N = X x2 FV = X PMT= X /2 PV= (X) I= ? x2
YTC Keys
N = # of years until called x2 FV = callable price PMT= X /2 PV= (current price) I= ? x2
3 Forms of Yield Curve
Upward sloping: positive, normal, where the rates of short-term paper are lower than the rates on longer term paper
Flat: rates of short-term and long term are similar
Downward sloping: negative, inverted, where the rates of short-term are higher than the rates on longer term paper
An inversion in the yield curve indicative of a …
Looming recession in the next 6-12 months, has been 100% correct
Business Cycle Phases and points
Phases: expansion and contraction
Points: trough and Peak
Expansion: increasing GDP & decreasing unemployment
Contraction: decreasing GDP & increasing unemployment
Recession is ____
2 consecutive quarters with negative GDP
Fiscal Policy
Controlled by Congress
Tools are taxation and government spending
Increasing government spending are used to promote economic growth and/or recovery
Government will sell Treasury Securities to slow down economic growth
Monetary policy
Controlled by the Federal Reserve Bank
Mandates: sustainable long-term growth (GDP 2.5-3.5%), price levels (core inflation 2-2.5%) and full employment (unemployment 4% or less)
Tools: Discount rate, Reserve Requirement and open market activities
If the Fed issues a “tight” policy, what happens
Discount Rate will be increased, increasing the cost of borrowing
Reserve requirements will be increased, decreasing the amounts that can be lent
The Fed will sell treasuries, to pull money from the market
If the Fed issues an “easy” policy, what happens
Decrease the discount rate - lowers the cost of borrowing
Decrease the reserve requirements - increasing the amounts to be lent
Buy securities from the market - this puts money back into circulation