Block 8: Integrated assessment Flashcards

You may prefer our related Brainscape-certified flashcards:
1
Q

integrated assessment

A

Assessment is a structured process dealing with complex issues, using knowledge from various scientific disciplines and/or stakeholders

use: Gives insight as to where focus research and how policy makers should design policy

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
2
Q

integrated assessment models

A

Models used in / developed for / developed during integrated assessments;

pours mathematically formalised processes into computer models.

use: Meant to analyse a broad range of policy options

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
3
Q

participatory integrated assessment

A

Integrated assessments including more qualitative elements – such as value judgements – which can not be easily incorporated in a model

It is The development and use of an environmental model by scientists, with interference from decision-makers or stakeholders.

use: alows for dialogue between analists and stakeholders

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
4
Q

Scenario

A

Description of possible future pathways of, for instance, society (People), the environment (Planet) and the economy (Profit).

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
5
Q

DPSIR approach

A

○ A structured representation of the cause-effect chain and the interactions (‘Driving Forces’, ‘Pressures’, ‘State’, ‘Impact’ and ‘Response’).

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
6
Q

RAINS model

A

○ Regional Acidification INformation and Simulation (RAINS) model (note that the most recent version is the GAINS model which also includes greenhouse gases, see www.iiasa.ac.at)

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
7
Q

LRTAP Convention

A

○ Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
8
Q

TARGETS model

A

○ Tool to Assess the Regional and Global Environmental and health Target

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
9
Q

what are SRES Scenarios?

A

Scenarios developed and described in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
10
Q

Which of the following statements is correct?

A Integrated Environmental Models are no longer used because they inadequately represent the phenomena relating to the natural environment and their interdependencies.

B The term ‘Assessment’ is used to reflect the interactions between scientists and policy-makers in the process of identifying and analysing causes and impacts of an environmental issue.

C Integrated Assessments can only be performed by the uN Environmental Program (uNEP).

D All of the above statements are correct.

A

B

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
11
Q

What is a correct example of a Participatory Integrated Assessment?
A The development and use of an environmental model by scientists, without interference from decision-makers or stakeholders.

B The development and use of an environmental model by stakeholders, without interference from decision-makers or scientists.

C The development and use of an environmental model by scientists, with interference from decision-makers or stakeholders.

D None of the above.

A

C

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
12
Q

Consider Figures 18.1 and 18.2. Figure 18.1 illustrates the application
of the DPSIR model in Integrated Assessment Modelling in a very general
way. Figure 18.2 shows how DPSIR was actually implemented in RAINS.
Indicate the D, P, S, I and R in Figure 18.2. This figure shows that,
in practice, DPSIR is an oversimplification that needs to be amended.
Explain this by discussing the DPSIR of NoX. What did RAINS do to amend
the oversimplification?

A

In Figure 18.2, the ‘economic activities’ are the drivers,

‘emission control policies’ the responses,

and the emissions (third column) the pressures.

The state is not clearly specified, but ‘dispersion’ (fourth column) describes the ambient concentration (=state) that will result.

The impacts are represented as ‘exceeding the critical loads’ (fifth column).

The DPSIR of NoX shows that NoX has not only several different drivers (agriculture, transport, energy, other), but also different impacts (acidification, eutrophication, ozone formation).

Hence, the representation of a single, linear DPSIR is an oversimplification. Instead, it is ‘branched’ and intertwined with other DPSIRs.

In RAINS, the fates of the major pollutants are modelled simultaneously and their interactions are taken into account as regards ozone and secondary aerosol formation. Furthermore, their contributions to acidification and eutrophication are aggregated. Finally, the concept of critical loads has been introduced to model the impacts.

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
13
Q

A scenario set can be regarded as ‘a map of the future uncertainty space’.

Explain how uncertainties can be mapped by applying the
so-called scenario axis method (as in the ‘SRES method’, see Section 18.5.3, resulting in four scenario families characterised by the extremes on two axes reflecting important characteristics of future developments).

What subsequent steps need to be taken after scenario families have been qualitatively described? What kinds of uncertainty are not mapped?

A

In the scenario axis method, four different scenarios are determined by the two major axes. These axes, or dimensions, are co-operation (globalisation vs. fragmentation) and individualisation (material vs.
social/ecological) in SRES (Fig. 18.10).

In each quadrant of the axes graph, internally consistent and plausible storylines are formulated. Then, integrated assessment models are used to estimate e.g. economic and population growth, technological development and subsequent greenhouse gas emissions for each scenario.

The four scenarios together ‘map the uncertainty’. The scenarios (implicitly) assume gradual changes: discontinuities (either slow trends such as the introduction of web-based social media or sudden events such as the 9/11 attack) are not taken into account.

Furthermore, several feedbacks (e.g. how societies respond to climate change impacts) are largely unknown. Finally, scenarios can only model uncertainties that we are aware of, and there may be important uncertainties caused by events we are unaware of (e.g. most of us had no clue about climate change in the 1950s)

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
14
Q

In Integrated Assessment Models, so-called feedbacks play an essential role. An example of a feedback is that rapid per capita economic growth decreases the fertility rate and therefore slows down population growth.

Provide some (different) examples of feedback loops in RAINS, TARGETS and SRES

A

RAINS models tries to meet environmental targets at minimum costs, while taking into account regional differences in ecosystem sensitivity, atmospheric transport and emission control costs (in its optimisation
mode) and the regional pattern of acid deposition resulting from certain emission control policies (in its forward running mode).

TARGETS includes many feedbacks, as illustrated by Figure 18.8. obvious examples include the increased needs for land and energy as the population increases.

The feedbacks in SRES are summarised on p. 413 (they are called ‘mental maps’). one example is that if per capita income rises, the share of the agricultural sector in the GDP decreases.

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
15
Q

The RAINS integrated assessment model (Regional Acidification INformation and Simulation) includes so-called critical loads, which indicate levels below which no harmful effects occur. Which of the following statements is correct?

a Targets for critical load exceedance can be defined. RAINS can be used in optimisation analysis to calculate how such targets can be met at minimal costs.

b Critical loads cannot be used in optimisation analysis in RAINS.

c Critical loads indicate the maximum costs countries are willing to pay
for pollution control.
d Critical loads are used in Europe as a basis for emission trading
schemes.

A

A

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
16
Q

What kind of policy options could be made operational at each level of the DPSIR model?

A

Driver - Macro-economic/ sector specific policy - tax

Pressures- source oriented poliy - emmission limit

state - effect oriented policy - change of land use practise

impact - curative - liming soil to descrease acidification

17
Q

History of RAINS

A

to deal with the problem of acification

in 1979 LTRAP concention was signed. since 1985 they use computer models (IAMs). ONe of these models was the RAINS model

18
Q

What are the characteristics of RAINS?

A
  • modular:
    –1st modul: economic activity
    2nd module: control costs
    3de module: emissions
    4th module: dispersions in the atmosphere
    5th module: environmental effects
  • large spatial scale
  • over long periods of time (1 year)
  • can be used in 2 modes:
  • -forward running: predict results if a certain fuel use was adapted + costs and benfits of control strategies
  • optimization mode: find least costly level to reach a certain deposit
19
Q

Rains in negotiations

A

The scientific concensus on the knowledge put in RAINS mmodel forms the core of the reliability an use in the negotiation process

20
Q

Use of the TARGETS model

A
  • to make SD operational on global scale
  • to invenstigate uncertainty
  • to investitgate the role of value laden assumptions in scenario construction
21
Q

What are the submodels in the TARGETS model?

A

□ The Population and Health sub-model
□□describes the demographic development

			□ In the Energy sub-model  □□the use of fossil and nonfossil energy carriers are simulated on the basis of the population and economic development 

			□ The AQUA water sub-model  □□consists mainly of the simulation of the hydrological cycle in interaction with human activity

			□ The TERRA Land and Food sub-model □□ simulates inputs and outputs of food production to meet food demand.

□The biochemical CYCLES sub-model
□□describes the cycles of the basic elements, carbon (C), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and sulphur (S), on the global scale in comparison with human-induced emissions caused by fuel, water and land use

□ The economy component consists of a scenatio generator using GWP

22
Q

Describe the interation in the TARGETS model

A

□ Population and health model + GWP is the main driving force behind the demand for water, food and energy

□ This derived demand serves as the imput for the sub-models energy, aqua and terra

□ important interactions happen in cycles with the rest of the models

23
Q

Scenario’s in the TARGETS

A

TARGETS is use to eplore possible future scenario’s

distinctions are mad according to 3 active attitudes on sustainability: hierarchist, egalitariann and individual perspectives

also between worldvies and the management/policy style

if the worldview lines up with the management/policy style, its their utopia

24
Q

relation between IMAGE and SRES

A
  • IMAGE was an IAM
  • first a simple cause and effect chain resp for climate change
  • the adding more elements to it
25
Q

scenario’s within SRES

A

along 2 axis:

  • globalisation vs fragmentation
  • emphasis on materialism vs emphasis on sustainability and equity

A1: global modern economy
A2: regional, focus on cultural tradition
B1: global with focus on well*being
B2: local problems, local solutions

26
Q

SRES stands for..?

A

Special Report on Emissions Scenario

27
Q

In the past few years it has become common practice to use the term ‘assessment’

A

to reflect the interaction between scientists and policy-makers during the process of analysing and identifying the causes and impacts of an environmental issue

28
Q

use of rains

A

Targets for critical load exceedance can be defined. RAINS can be used in optimisation analysis to calculate how such targets can be met at minimal costs.

29
Q

Integrated environmental models

A

type of model in which many natural phenomena and their interdependencies are represented
*environmental impacts, ecological systems, resource management,…

30
Q

characteristics of IA

A
  • IA should have have added value over single-disciplin assessment
  • IA’s should provide useful info to decision makers
31
Q

uncertainty in (DPSIR) scenario’s

A
  • since they all have the same uncertainties/errors, one can assume the differences between the scenario’s are due to the scenarios themselves - meaning scenario’s can be compared relative to each other
  • reasons for uncertainty: wrong model, lack of knowledge, world view,..