Bias and decision making

Question 1

what are norms?

Answer 1

rules of action or thought which define optimality (the best action)

Question 2

what is rationality?

Answer 2

a set of norms/principles

• consistent (coherence)
• coming to conclusions that correspond to reality (correspondence)

Question 3

define availability bias

Answer 3

over-estimating the frequency of something e.g. plane crashes because of how readily available it is to you

Question 4

define framing bias

Answer 4

switching your decision based on the question framing

Question 5

what is the conjunction fallacy?

Answer 5

the conjunction of a and b must always be less likely than a on its own e.g. Linda problem

Question 6

decision calculus

Answer 6

formal method for evaluating the decisions they should make

Question 7

expected utility theory

Answer 7

formula which allows you to decide/compare the value of different options taking into account uncertainty
-utility is compressed with respect to value e.g. you don’t enjoy 10 pizzas 10x more than 1

Question 8

uncertainty affects expectation

Answer 8

-e.g. if you pay £10 for a pizza, how much would you pay for one that has a 1/100 chance of making you sick/10% chance to win a pizza?

Question 9

rule for expected utility

Answer 9

E=p*U

if there are multiple outcomes of each utility: E=p1U1+p2U2

Question 10

the effect of uncertainty

Answer 10

• everything is uncertain, just how much?

- uncertainty is a distribution around a value

Question 11

why do we use heuristics?

Answer 11

rationality is bounded
-world is complex
-decisions need to be made quickly
-time is limited
-cognitive capacities limited
-how to be rational is certain limits
ecological rationality
-correspondence with environment is more important than coherence (logic processing)
adaptive value
-value of action across evolutionary time
-evolution maximises long term expected value
environmental structure
-heuristics make assumptions about the environment about what things go together (association) and about probabilities (risks)

Question 12

what is recognition heuristic

Answer 12

when we judge the frequency/probability by whether or not you recognise something

• relies on assumptions about environment
• doesn’t work if you know too much
• doesn’t work when there was an incidence e.g. Chernobyl

Question 13

what are biases

Answer 13

windows into the mechanisms/defined by norms

• systematic errors
• consistent
• making the wrong choice but for a reason
• heuristic errors reveal the normal mechanisms of reasoning

Question 14

Wason’s selection task

Answer 14

confirmation bias: most people pick cards that will confirm the rule but should pick ones that test it

Question 15

reasons for making systematic errors

Answer 15

• using a strategy optimised for a different environment e.g. bungee jumping - evolved to not jump
• considering a different bundle of choices
• using different cost/benefit analysis

Question 16

heuristics vs rational logic system

Answer 16

heuristics are system 1, quick, automatic, effortless, unconscious
rational are system 2, slow, deliberate, effortful, conscious

Question 17

dual process theories

Answer 17

• 2 processes which work at same time
• one has system 1 properties and the other has system 2
• usually work together