armstrong Flashcards
what are the two parts of the bonded rationality of Herbert Simons?
- decisions by simplified models (take simplified features from problems without capturing all of the complexity)
- satisficing = seeks first solution/ hard to understand all information necessary to optimize/ soltn are sufficient rather than optimal
what are the key influences on decision-making?
- creativity
-intuition - experience
- group dynamic
what are the errors in decision-making?
- overconfident boas (Mount Everest)
- anchoring bias - using early 1st received info as the basis of making subsequential judgments
- confirmation bias: using only the facts that support our decision
- availability bias: using the info that is most reality at hand
- representative bias: our current situation is identical or representative of past situations
what is an escalation of commitment “sunk cost”?
throwing good money after bad
- tendencu to continue to commit resources to failing course of action (mount everest)
how can groups minimize conflict?
reach a consensus
- Harmony vs conflict
what are an organization’s constraints to decision-making?
- performance. evaluation
- reward system
- formula regulations
- time/ money. resources/ constraints
- historical precedent
why is armstrong deciosn hard?
- jobs are very different
- consequences are hard to determine
- uncertainties
- risk
- lack of experience
what is a balanced perspective?
- new deciosn for armstrong
- multidimensional
- involves long-term objective
- wife input
what are two decion making tools used?
- decision tree
- quantitative analysis
what is a decision tree?
- diagramically way of looking at the problem we are going to solve
- looks at actions/uncertainities/description of consequences ( positive or negative)
what is quantitative analysis?
list of all your options putting weight for each one and going through each row and out 100 put numbers to each and figuring out the success rate of each
