AP Review Questions 262-322 Flashcards
- Suppose X is a geometric random variable that counts the number of trials necessary to obtain the first successful trial. If the probability of failure for any given trial is 0.42, what is the probability that the first success will occur on the first or second trial?
A) (0.58)(0.42)^0 + (0.58)(0.42)^1
B) (0.42)(0.58)^0 + (0.42)(0.58)^1
C) (26 over 1)(0.58)^1(0.42)^25 + (26 over 2)(0.58)^2(0.42)^24
D) (26 over 1)(0.42)^1(0.58)^25 + (26 over 2)(0.42)^2(0.58)^24
E) (0.42)(0.58)^1 + (0.42)(0.58)^2
(A) The probability of failure on any trial is 0.42, therefore the probability of success on any trial is 1-0.42=0.58. Since x is geometric, the probability of the first success occurring on the first or second trial is P(X=1) + p(X=2) = 0.58(0.42)^0 + 0.58(0.42)^1.
- A coin is weighted so that the probability of heads if 0.64. On average how many coin flips will it take for tails to first appear?
A. 1.56
B. 2
C. 2.78
D. 6.4
E. This cannot be determined since the total number of flips is unknown
A. For a geometric random variable , the average time to the first success is 1/p = 1/0.64 = 1.56
264. In a binomial experiment with 45 trials the probablility of more than 25 successes can be approximated by P(z>(25-27)/3.29). What is the probability of successes of a single trial of this experiment? A. .07 B. .56 C. .6 D. .61 E. .79
C The binomial distribution can be approximated by the normal distribution with u= np and o= sqrt(np(1-p)) when n is large enough. In this case, P(z>(25-27)/3.29) = P(z>(x-u)/o)) If np= 27 and n=45, p=0.6
- Let X represent the number of successes in 30 trials of a binomial experiment. If P(X=2)=(30 over 2)(0.45)^2(0.55)^28, what is the approximate probability of fewer than 10 successes in the 30 trials?
A) P(z
(E) Since x is binomial, P(X=x) = (n over x)p^x(1-p)^n-x. Therefore p=0.45 and np=13.5, giving us the approximation P[z
- The distribution of the binomial random variable that counts the number of successful trials in 70, each of which have 40% probability of failure, can be approximated by which of the following distributions?
A) A slightly skewed right distribution with a mean of 28 and a standard deviation of 16.8.
B) A slightly skewed right distribution with a mean of 42 and a standard deviation of 4.1.
C) An aproximately normal distribution with a mean of 28 and a standard deviation of 16.8.
D) An approxiamtely normal distribution with a mean of 42 and a standard deviation of 4.1.
E) The number of trials is not large enough to make a determination.
(D) If the probability of failure is 40% then the probability of success is 60%. Further, since np greater than or equal to 5, the distribution can be approximated by a normal distribution with u=np=42 and o=sqrt[np(1-p)] = 4.1
269. An experiment consists of 31 independent trials. The probability that any one trial is a failure is 45%. Which is the best estimate of the probability that more than 20 trials will be failures? A) 0.01 B) 0.02 C) 0.11 D) 0.89 E) 0.99
(A) The described situation is binomcdf with n=31 and p=1-0.45=0.55 . The probability of more than 20 failures os equivalent to 10 or fewer successes, which is P(X less than or equal to 10) symbolically. This is best found using the calaculator: binomcdf (31, 0.55, 10).
- The distribution of the binomial random variable that counts the number of successful trials in 65, each of which have a 30% probabiility of success can be approximated by which of the following distributions?
A) A slightly skewed left distribution with a mean of 65 and a standard deviation of 19.5.
B) Slightly skewed eft distribution with a mean of 19.5 and a standard deviation of 3.7.
C) An approximately normal distribution with a mean of 65 and a standard deviation of 19.5.
D) An approximately normal distribution with a mean of 19.5 and a standard deviation of 3.7.
E) The number of trials is not large enough to make a determination.
D. Since np > 5, the distribution can be approximated by a normal distribution with u= np = 19.5 and o = sqrt(np(1-p)) = 3.7
268. The probability that any one trial out of 23 independent trials will be successful is 17%. Find the probability that fewer than three trials will be successful. A) 0.43 B) 0.15 C) 0.22 D) 0.56 E) 0.78
C The described situation is binomcdf with n = 23 and p = 0.17. The probability that fewer than three trials will be successful is P(X
270. In a large population, it is known that 55% of items in the population have a certain attribute. Whether an item has the attribute or not is independent of whether any other item has the attribute. If a sample of 95 is drawn from this population, what is the probability that more than 45% of the items in the sample will have the attribute? A) P(Z>0.55-0.45/0.051) B) P(Z>0.45-0.55/0.051) C) P(Z>0.55-0.45/9.33) D) P(Z>0.45-0.55/9.33) E) P(Z>42.75-52.25/9.33)
B Using the normal Appromixation to the sampling distribution of p, this question is asking for P(phat>.45). Since the mean is p and the standard distribution is sqrt(p(1-p)/n) this is equivalent to P( Z> .45-.55/sqrt(.55(.45)/95)
272. Suppose that X is a binomial random variable that counts the number of successes in 12 trials. Find P(X is greater than or equal to 3) if the probability of success for a single trial is 0.29. A) 0.1807 B) 0.2460 C) 0.2775 D) 0.4765 E) 0.5235
E This probability can be found on a TI83 or 84 using binomial (12, .29, 3)
- The random variable X represents the number of successes in 10 independent trials. Which of the following represents the probability of fewer than two failures?
A) P(X greater than or equal 2)
B) P(X8)
D) P(X greater than or equal to 8)
E) The probability of success for an individual trial must be known to determine which of these represents the given probability.
C If there are fewer than 2 failures, there must be either one or no failures in other words either 9 or 10 successes
- Let X represent the number of successes in n independent trials. If the probability of success for any given trials is p. which of the following is true?
I. The mean number of successes in n trials is sqrt[np(1-p)].
II. The probability of failure for any given trial is 1-p.
III. The probability that there will be exactly two successful trials is 2/n.
B The described random variable is binomial, therefore the mean number of successes would be np and the probability of two successes would be found using the binomial formula.
- A binomial random variable X counts the number of successes in three trials. Let the probability of success for any given trial be 0.4.
a) Find the probability distribution of X in table form.
b) Explain how the probability of two or more successes can be found using your table from a).
A each individual probability is found using the formula for exactly that number of successes For instance p(x=0) is the value .216
- A small candy company specializes in creating various candies, all of which contain peanuts. Their latest product is the “Chocolate and Peanut Bonanza Bag,” a 1-pound (16 ounce) bag of chocolate peanut clusters. The company claims that each bag contains an everage of 10 ounces of peanuts and distribution of the weight of peanuts in this product is approximately normal.
a) Suppose that the standard deviation of the weight of peanuts contained in the new product is 1.1 ounces. If the company’s claim is true, what is the probability that a smaple of 40 Chocolate and Peanut Bonanza bags will contain an average less than 9.5 ounces of peanuts.
b) If the distribution of the weights of peanuts in the new product was not normal but had the same mean and standard deviation, would your calculations in part a) still be appropriate? Explain.
A Since the sample size is 40, the sampling distribution of the sample mean will be approximately normal with a mean of 10 and a standard deviation of 1.1/sqrt40= .1739. Therefore the probability a sample would have a mean less that 9.5 is .002
BYes, as long as the sample size is larger than 30, the distribution will be approximately normal regardless of the distribution of the population, however, the standard deviation depends on the sample size. it decreases as the sample size increases.
- A large population has a skewed right distribution with a mean of 46.1 and a standard deviation of 5.3.
a) Describe the shape of the sampling distribution of the mean if all possible samples of size 10 are taken.
b) Describe the shape of the sampling distribution of the mean if all possible samples of size 50 are taken.
c) Will the mean and the standard deviation be the same in a) and b)? Is this true in general or only for this particular problem? Explain.
.A distribution will be skewed right with a mean of 46.1 and a standard deviation of 5.3/sqrt10= 1.67
B The distribution will be approximately normal with a mean of 46.1 and a standard deviation of .75
C in both cases the mean will be the same. the standard deviation decreases as the size of the sample increases.
271. Suppose that X is a binomial random variable that counts the number of successes in 30 trials. Find P(X>1) if the probability of success for a single trial is 0.14. A) 0.0108 B) 0.0529 C) 0.0638 D) 0.9362 E) 0.9892
D using the TI83 or 84 this can be found using the binomial (30, .14, 1).
- Previous studies have suggested that the average weight of a particular animal species is 121.3 pounds with a standard deviation of 20.9 pounds. The distribution of the weights has not been determined.
a) A sample of 90 of these animals had an average weight of 115 pounds. What is the probability that a sample of this size would have a mean of 115 pounds or fewer?
b) Based on your answer in a), it is likely that the true mean weight of these animals is 121.3 pounds as has been suggested? Justify your answer.
A since the sample is large the sampling distribution is approximately unimodal and P=.002
b it is unlikely to get a sample with a mean of 115 or less if the true mean is 121.3, However, such a sample was found. Therefore unlikely the true me is 121.3
- A survey of students at a large state university found that 82% had purchased textbooks from an off-campus vendor at least once during their college career.
a) If 45 students are sampled, how many students would you expect to have purchased textbooks from an off-campus vendor at least once during their college career?
b) If 150 students are sampled, what is the probability that more than 130 of them have purchased textbooks from an off-campus vendor at least once during their college career?
a This is a binomial experiment, the expected value of x is 36.9. Therefore you would expect about 37 students to have brought textbooks off campus.
B The probability that more that 130 students would have done this is binomcdf (150,.82, 130) = .051 p=.82 s=150
- Quality control technicians at a large manufacturing firm have found that approximately 1.2% of parts from the main production line are defective. It is believed that the defects are independent of one another.
a) An outside consultant is brought in to test parts from the main production line. In a random sample of 150 parts, he finds that four are defective. What is the probability that the consultant would get a sample size of this with four or more defects if the quality control technicians’ estimate is correct? Justify your answer.
b) Assuming the original estimate of 1.2% was correct, if the consultant decides to sample another 150 parts and the first 145 are not defective, what is the probability the 146th part will be defective? Justify your answer.
.A Since it is thought that the defects are independent, this can be thought of as a binomial with x=150 and p=.012. Therefore 1- binomcdf (150,.12,3) =.1075
281. You want to create a 95% confidence interval with a margin of error of no more than 0.05 for a population proportion. The historical data indicate that the population has remained constant at about 0.55. What is the minimum size random sample you need to construct this interval? A) 378 B) 380 C) 223 D) 324 E) None of the above
B P= .55, =1.96, M=.05
282. A random sample of 30 households was selected as part of a study on electricity usage, and the number of kWh was recorded for each household in the sample for the March quarter of 2011. The average usage was found to be 450kWh. In a very large study in the March quarter of the previous year it was found that the standard deviation of the usage was 81 kWh. Assuming the standard deviation is unchanged and that the usage is normally distributed, provide an expression for calculating a 99% confidence interval for the mean usage in the March quarter of 2011. A) 450±2.756(81/√30) B) 450±2.575(9/√30) C) 450±2.33(81/√30) D) 450±2.575(81/√30) E) None of the above
D since o is assumed known, we use an interval where o=81, x= 30.
283. If our sample size from the previous question were tripled, how would that change the confidence interval size? A) Divides the interval size by 3 B) Multiplies the interval size by 1.732 C) Divides the interval size by 1.732 D) Triples the interval size E) None of the above
C Increasing the sample size by a multiple of d divides the internal by sqrt(d)
284. Other things being equal, which of the following actions will reduce the power of a hypothesis test? I. Increasing sample size II. Increasing significance level III. Increasing beta, the probability of a Type II error A) I only B) II only C) III only D) All of the above E) None of the above
C More likely to reject the null hypothesis. It is in fact false. Increasing the significance level reduces the region of acceptance, which makes the hypothesis test more likely to reject the null.
- While conducting an experiment to test a hypothesis, we found that our sample size tripled. Which of the following will increase?
I. The power of the hypothesis test
II. The effect size of the hypothesis test
III. The probability of making a type II error
A) I only
B) II only
C) III only
D) All of the above
E) None of the above
A Increasing sample size makes the hypothesis test more sensitive more likely to reject null hypothesis. the probability of making a type II error gets smaller, not bigger, as sample size increases.